Juice’s last moments in “Sons of Anarchy”

What if the 2Pair Poker Tour came to Oregon and nobody came?

Well some people came to Eugene for their first excursion outside of California, though not nearly as many as they were hoping for. Their first tournament last Thursday, scheduled for two days, only had 20 entries and played out in one day. The first day of their $880 Championship this weekend—with an expected prize pool of $100,000—only picked up 19 entries on the first of two starting days, and 25 on the second, for a prize pool of just over $34K.

I think there are a lot of reasons for this, but one that’s been bandied about in Facebook comments has been the “high juice” charged by the event. Portland players have gotten used to tournaments where the “social club” door fee is the only money paid to the house. The dealers are unpaid “volunteers” who work for tips from the players who cash in tournaments. They look askance at a tournament (like most of the scheduled 2Pair events) with a $350 buy-in that includes a $10 dealer bonus (not on the structure sheet), a $10 service charge, $40 for administration, and an additional $125 removed from the prize pool for a player of the series award. If they pay $350 total, they expect $340 of it to go to the prize pool, dammit!

I’m not entirely convinced that the juice was the problem with turnout (see below) as opposed to it just being a thing for poker players to bitch about, but the bitching has convinced me that either I’m tipping Portland dealers a lot more than the average, or that Portland players are mathematically-challenged.

2Pair’s first event had 20 entries. $290 of the buy-in went to the prize pool, with $125 taken out of the prize pool going toward the Player of the Series award (a package to a $100,000 guaranteed championship in May). 20 x $290 = $5,800. $5,800 – $125 = $5,625. Three places paid: $2,840 (~50%), $1,700 (~30%), and $1,135 (~20%). That’s $281.25 into the prize pool for each entry.

Let’s compare two tournaments. Both have 20 entries. Both have prize pools of $5,625. Both pay three places 50%/30%/20%. In Tournament J, you pay $350, with $281.25 going into the prize pool. In Tournament T, you pay $291.25, with $10 as your door fee, and if you cash, you pay a tip.

Now, I’ve been derided by colleagues of being unusually generous with my tournament tipping in Portland. I’ve given 10% at pretty much all levels, including my first big win, when the guy who took second place just dropped $20 for his $3,000 cash. From observation and asking around, that seems to be pretty standard in smaller tournaments around town, although the amount on big tournaments is reportedly less, and can be greatly impacted if one of the top cashers is particularly stingy, as my opponent was.

In the table below, I’ve worked up numbers for a few variations of tip levels. It shows both 10% and 5%, where you either pay the tip based on the entire prize or just on the difference between the prize and buy-in.

The first thing to note is that if you’re playing in a Portland club and you stiff the dealers, you do, of course, make more money, though you might find yourself somewhat unwelcome. In every spot, you make a whopping $59 in absolute value. That translates to less than 8% of the profit of the 3rd place finisher in Tournament J.

In fact, unless you are stiffing the dealers, in absolute dollar value, you’re better off playing Tournament J than any of the T tournaments, because everyone else who entered the tournament has helped pay the tournament cost before you collect your prize.

“But Poker Mutant,” I hear you say, “haven’t you been ragging on about ROI for, like, forever?” This is very true, your break-even ITM for median cashes in tournaments of this size goes from just under 21% in Tournament J down to 17% if you’re Stiffy McStifferson in Tournament T0. The difference there is small enough that I don’t think all of the whining about the juice is warranted. And if you’re one of the people who claims ROI doesn’t matter, then the fact that the dollar payoff is higher makes worries about juice at the 20% level 2Pair was charging just silly. What’s going on is that everyone else is paying the money you’d tip in Portland up front.

Personally, I hope that 2Pair doesn’t take the small turnout to heart. It’s the holiday season, people are busy with a lot of stuff. Don’t schedule the event during the only break people have between the West Coast WSOP Circuit stops, the Wildhorse Fall Round-Up, an HPT event in Vegas, and Christmas. At least not in Eugene. Portland could sustain a week’s worth of $340-$400 buy-in tournaments, but there obviously weren’t enough local players in Eugene to keep it up, and if people are going to have to travel, they’re going to want to know the games are definitely going to run and that the payoff is going to be worth their time. I think that was more of an issue for the turnout than the juice. The materials looked great, the livestream was nice after they got the technical issues worked out (I’m watching WSOP icon Lon McEachern and Portland’s Liz Tedder on the Championship final table as I write this). Kudos to them for a nice try.

So I’m listening to the end of last week’s 2+2 Pokercast, it’s just wrapping up with some comments from the previous week’s show thread, and suddenly I hear my name, because Adam and Terence read my reaction to their view of the Phil Hellmuth/Dan Colman contretemps:

The segment is here:

Terence and Adam blow it off, repeating that “everyone knows Phil’s a clown”,  and that Colman’s response was mean. But really, Hellmuth’s been blowing up for years in people’s faces at live tournaments for a long, long time, probably before everyone knew he was a clown. If you want to know how much people appreciate that, just re-watch the Kyle Kernanen/Curtis Rystadt feud in this year’s WSOP broadcasts. It sure didn’t look like Keranen was having a good time. Rystadt doesn’t have an armful of WSOP bracelets to back up his clownish behavior, but if he did, would the Pokercast guys want to be sitting at the table with him?

Hellmuth knows he’s on nationally-broadcast cameras when he does his brat routines. Colman made his comments on a forum frequented by a relatively small portion of even the poker community, which, if it hadn’t been blown up by poker media, would have been seen by a couple thousand people, most likely, and some of them wouldn’t have known it was Colman, since he used his 2+2 alias. It’s not even close to the same level.

Bovada $200 Guarantee Pot-Limit Omaha Turbo (T1,500)

This game went pretty well, if I do say so myself, even if I did forget for much of the first portion that it was Omaha High, not High/Low.

Hand 1 [7h jd 3d 5d] UTG2 T1,500 20/40
I came into the game in the second round. Normally would not play this hand in a high game, but…. UTG and UTG1 call, I call, BTN pops it to 260 and we’re three to the flop after UTG1 drops out. [ts 6h 4d] makes a straight draw for me, and two pair for BTN’s [4s 5s ac tc]; UTG has [kc 9c jh qc], a good hand but not on this board, and he drops out after BTN pots to 880. In a situation like this, if I have to risk all my chips to call, I’m going to attempt to maximize my value, so I shoved, BTN called, and—without accounting for all the dead cards in other players’ hands—I’m actually ahead by a few percentage points. The turn and river run out [qd ad], and my flush takes it, knocking him down to just a big blind.

Hand 2 [2s 4c qs 7s] UTG1 T3,360 20/40
I call along with the player I just beat (CO), BTN, SB, and BB. Board runs out to the river with no betting: [td tc 3d 8s 9c] and BTN takes the small pot with a queen-high straight.

Hand 4 [6h 9h kd 2d] BB T3,320 30/60
UTG2 opens to 210, getting calls from BTN, SB, and myself. The flop lands right on top of me as [8h 7d 5s]. I’ve got the nuts. I pot it, UTG has to go all-in to call (with[ac ad 9s 4d], just aces and no real draws) and we’re HU. Our hands are 45%/55% pre-flop, but I’ve got him more than 10:1 after the flop. Accounting for both of the other aces having been dealt to players, along with most of the cards that could make better straights or a full house, he had less than a 2% chance of winning the hand.

Hand 6 [6c 2s jd js] BTN T4,517 30/60
UTG1 limped in, with UTG2 raising to 270 with [th ac kh 5s]. I called, and UTG1, holding [td 3s 8s  8h], came along. The flop was [9s 2d 9d] and everyone checked. [8d] on the turn, UTG1 bet his full house for 300 and I came along in the hopes of spiking a jack. The river brought [8c], UTG1 bet another 720 and I folded to the quads.

Hand 7 [as ac 8h 9h] CO T3,947 30/60
I’m not a fan of raising pre-flop with aces in Omaha, even in High the equities are too evenly-distributed, so I limped in behind UTG and UTG1. SB called, but then BB popped it up to 360. UTG1 called with [7d qc 4d 6d]. I called. BB had [jd tc jh ah]. and three of us went to the flop with UTG1—believe it or not—as a slight favorite to win the hand (now you see why aces are over-valued).

The flop was [5c 7s 2s], giving UTG1 the open-ended draw and me a gut-shot. With about 8% equity in the hand, BB shoved his last 1,140 into the pot. UTG1 had a slight edge in the odds, and called his last 970. I had nearly a starting stack behind when I made the call. [2d] on the turn and [ad] on the river gave me the full house and I gained nearly 3,000 chips.

Hand 9 [7d 2d 3c 9c] UTG2 T6,897 40/80
Limped in after UTG, called a raise from BB of 240, and folded to a post-flop bet after seeing [th 6d qh].

Hand 12 [3c as 3h 8h] UTG T6,657 40/80
I limped in, followed by UTG2 and HJ. BTN raised to 240. BB called the raise, I called, UTG2 called, then HJ potted to 1,480 with just 20 behind. I was the only caller (as you can probably tell, I was still laboring under the delusion I was playing High/Low). He held [ac 7c 6s qc] and was ahead by 56/44 pre-flop. After the [7s 5c 2c] flop, with a better pair and the flush draw, he was ahead 78/22. He bet his last 20 and I called: I had a low! [9s] on the turn. But things turned around with [3d] at the river to make my set and knock him out.

Hand 16 [js ad 3c 7d] CO T7,567 50/100
Limped pot, with UTG, me, SB, and BB. [ah 7c qh] on the flop. I open to 200, get a call from UTG, then we both check [td] turn and [6h] river. He has [5d ts 5s kh] and my flopped two pair is good for a small pot.

Hand 17 [7h ah 6s qh] HJ T8,067 60/120
I limp in with SB and BB, the flop is [8s 3s td]. SB bets 360 with [qc ad 2c kc]. BB actually has the best hand with top pair, but lets it go, as do I.

Hand 20 [4s kd kh 3h] SB T7,827 60/120
UTG2 raises to 240 with [qh ac 8h 4c], I call, and BB calls with [ks 4d ad 7h]. I have nearly 50% equity, with cards dealt to other players removed from the calculations. The flop looks good for the pre-flop raiser, with [3c ts tc] but it actually only reduces my chances of winning by a couple percentage points. Nobody bets. [5s] on the turn, I bet 400, and win the pot.

Hand 21 [7s qh qs ad] BTN T8,307 60/120
Looks like a legitimate PLO High hand, doesn’t it? UTG1 limps in, I limp, SB limps. Flop is [qd 8s 9h]. UTG1 bets 288 with [6d 8h 7d jd], I pop it to 600 with my top set. SB goes all in holding the nuts: [td jh 9d 4s]. I can’t let top set go for another 600 chips and call. [3s kc] on the turn and river improve his straight but do nothing for the set.

Hand 22 [ac 5s th jh] CO T6,957 60/120
I limp in, SB limps with only 600 behind, BB has just under 1,100. The flop is [2h 4c kh] and SB pots, putting in more than half their stack with [kc 2c tc 6c]; two pair and a backdoor flush. BB folds. Counting folded cards, there are only three hearts left (which I don’t know) but I do have the gut shot wheel draw, so I double the bet, he goes all in for 210 more, and it’s a [3d] on the turn that swings things in my favor, with a river [jc] ending the hand.

Hand 23 [5s as jh 5d] HJ T7,767 60/120
We’re only five-handed at the table. UTG limps, I limp, BB checks, flop is [7d 9c tc] and I fold to a min-bet from UTG, who has [8c qc ks td] for a great draw and a pair. BB was technically ahead at that point with [ah jd js 6c], but UTG had a 75% equity.

Hand 24 [4h 2h 2d 3s] UTG1 T7,647 60/120
Still under the assumption I’m playing High/Low. I limp after UTG, CO raises to 660, SB pots to 2,340, UTG and I fold, CO is all in for 840 more. SB wins with [kd 2c 8h kh] after the board runs out [3d td qh qs qd]. I can’t beat that.

Hand 26 [tc td 2s 3d] BB T7,527 80/160
Five limpers into the pot until SB goes all in for 800 more with [kc ks 4d qs]. I call, HJ, CO and BTN put in the extra 640, holding [4s kh 3s ac], [2c 6c 5d 4h], and [ah 7s 9d 7h], respectively. CO goes all in for 700 with the low end of an open-ended straight draw, BTN calls with his set (and over 5K behind), and I’m along to the [5s] turn, when I pot it and BTN folds. [6s] on the river and the flush holds. I scoop the 6,400 chip pot.

Hand 34 [7c 7d 6s 6d] BB T12,367 100/200
Seven players on the table at this point. CO has 9K, BTN and UTG are around 5.5K, SB has 2,300, and UTG1 and HJ are under 5BB. CO min-raises [5h ad 8s js] and BTN calls with [kh 3h 4d  5d]. Maybe they’re also thinking there’s a low. I call. After the [kd 9h 8d] flop, I’m still the statistical favorite, with the open-ended straight and flush draws. We all check to the [as] turn, I check, CO bets his two pair for 444 and BTN and I call. [qd] on the river makes my flush and we all check it down for a nice little pot.

Hand 37 [3d 3c ac 7d] CO T14,030 125/250
Three limpers to the [6h as qd] flop, it’s checked to BTN who bets 562 with two pair and he takes the pot.

Hand 41 [kc ac th 6c] BB T13,780  150/300
CO and BTN limp in and we all check to the river when the board reads [kh 8d 5c js]. CO bets 300 with [td as 9s 5d] and BTN and I call, drawing for the same gut shot Broadway straight. [9c] on the river gets checked around and CO wins with two pair.

Hand 42 [2d as jd 3d] SB T13,180 150/300
HJ raises to 655 with [td kh 8h kc]. CO calls with [tc ad 8s ah]. I come along compliantly. The flop is [6h 2s 8c]. I check, HJ bets 977, CO calls, and by this time, I’ve figured out we’re playing high only, because I fold my nut low.

Hand 45 [7d 7c 8h ad] HJ T12,525 200/400
I limp in with SB, see a flop of [6h 5s js], we check to [ks] turn, I bet 500 and fold to a re-raise from SB with [as qc td qd].

Hand 46 [6s th 6h 7d] UTG1 T11,625 200/400
I limp, CO is all in for just 200. The blinds, both with more chips than me, are unresponsive, and the board checks down to the river: [9d ad 3c 9s 6c]. I bet 600 on my full house and BB, who’s woken back up, folds [5s 5d jd ts], and my full house takes the day.

Hand 48 [ac 9h 5d 8h] BB T12,430 200/400
CO raises [3d 8s 8c 4h] to 955 and I call. With cards removed, I’m close to a 2:1 favorite. The flop is [jh 2c 7h], filling in some straight and flush draws, and I call a bet of 1,155. We both check [ks] on the turn, then the [th] gives me a straight flush and I don’t realize it before I check—thinking I’m just jack high—though I doubt he was calling anything with just a pair of eights at that point.

Hand 49 [4d kd tc 9d] SB T14,740 250/500
CO and I limp in, the board checks to  the turn showing [6h 8s qd 4s], and I check-fold to a BB bet of 1,500 on a made seven-high straight.

Hand 50 [3x 3s qs qh] BTN T14,240 250/500
UTG limps in with [th 6h 7c ac]. I follow. SB limps with [ks 9h as 2d]. BB has [2c kc tc 5c]. Everyone checks to the river: [7d kd jh jx qd]. I hit a full house on the river, I bet pot, UTG calls with the straight, and I make a 3,500 chip profit.

Hand 51 [4s 5c 9s 9h] CO T17,740 250/500
Limping, limping, there are four of six players at the table to the flop, I have the most equity pre-flop, make top set and a straight draw with [6d 9c 7h], going from 37% to 75% chance of a win and a 13% chance of a tie, with everyone else under 7% for a win. I pot it and everyone folds.

Hand 52 [4h 5h 7c ac] HJ T19,240 250/500
I limp in with SB ([qh 9c 5s 8s]) and BB ([qc jc 4d 5d]). The flop isn’t particularly good for my hand: [kc as ts], but I call a BB min-bet. [6s] on the turn and BB min-bets again. This time, I fold, SB raises to 2,155 with the flush, and BB folds Broadway.

Hand 53 [9d qc 2d tc] UTG T18,240 300/600
One of those speculative hands that went nowhere (for me) after a bet of 1,800 from CO on the [qh 6d as] flop.

Hand 55 [7c 8c 9s as] SB T17,040 300/600
I limp in after HJ and CO. The flop is [th qs 6d], I call a 600 bet from CO with [8h jh qc 5h]. We’re HU to the [ac] turn, which flips the odds back in my direction. We both check the [2h] river, and my aces beat the queens.

Hand 57 [5h 2h kd 4d] CO T19,440 400/800
UTG and I are about equal in chips. There are only three other players at the table, all with less than 7K. I limp in with SB, the flop is [3d ad ks], I have second pair, a wheel draw, and the nut flush draw, and I bet 2,400, getting folds from [td 6h qd 5d] and [tc 6d 7c ac].

Hand 58 [th as ts 2s] CO T21,040 400/800
I’m in the cutoff position again because the button was dead. I limp in with SB, and the flop is [qs jh 8h]. I’ve got a couple high straight draws and call a BB min-bet. The turn drops down to [4d], and I give it one more min-bet call, but fold after a third barrel and a [5h] river leaves me without anything but my tens. BB had [jd 2c 4c 5d] for two pair.

Hand 61 [7s 7d 2h 2s] BB T19.040 400/800
Still just five players at the table. I limp in, then fold to a 1,500 bet by UTG on a [4d 6d td] flop.

Hand 62 [td 4h kd jc] BTN T18,240 400/800
I limp in and BB and I are HU. The flop is [9h 8s kc]. I bet 1,200 and he check-calls. I’ve got the top end of his straight draw and top pair for a 2:1 advantage. [qh] on the turn locks me in and I pot, getting a fold.

Hand 63 [4h jd ts qh] CO T20,640 500/1,000
I limp-fold pre-flop when BTN pots (with [qc kc js kh]) and BB puts him all in with [6h ah 8c jc]. The board ran out [3d qs as 2h 6d], and with all the low cards, BTN’s kings weren’t enough to keep him from hitting the rail.

Hand 64 [6h kc qh 6d] BB T19,640 500/1,000
Seven players at the table with fourteen left in the tournament. I’m chip leader at the table. SB, HJ, and CO all have about 11BB. UTG, UTG1, and BTN are at less than 5BB. CO opens to 2,000, getting calls from both of us in the blinds. The flop is [kd th 7c], bets over 4K (holding a set of sevens) and wins the pot.

Hand 65 [qh 3c 3d ah] SB T17,640 500/1,000
The first big hit I take in the tournament is on the first hand at the final table. BTN limps with [8c 6c 9h 7s] and I uncharacteristically raise to 3,000. BB folds, but BTN calls with about 6K behind. We’re about even odds pre-flop. The flop is [6d 6s 4h]. I check-call his shove, coming from way behind at less than ten percent, and lose more than half my stack as the turn and river are [as 5c], making his straight.

Hand 67 [qs td ad kc] CO T8,398 600/1,200
The blow-up continues. UTG1 is all in with under 2BB holding [9c 9h 4s 5s]. I call, along with HJ ([6c 5h 9s 6d]) and BB ([ah th 2d 8c]). I make Broadway with a lot of draws on the flop: [qh ks js]. BB shoves and I’m all in to call. HJ drops out. The turn and river are [ts 3d] and I chop the side with HJ, with the short stack quadrupling up on the flush.

Hand 68 [8d 9s 6h 7h] HJ T6,223 600/1,200
I’m in seat 2. Seat 3 is CO with 2BB. BTN has just over 4BB. SB has 7BB. BB has a bit more than 12BB, UTG is at 8BB, UTG1 (seat 8) has less than 2BB. The chip leaders are UTG2 (19BB) and UTG3 (14BB). UTG1 chooses this point to ship [kh 9h ad qd], getting called by UTG2, me, and BB, who has to put in just 740 more. The flop is low and straighty: [5c 7s 3d]. I ship my last 4,300 in, get [9d 8h] to complete the board and my straight, and UTG1 is knocked out as the first cashing player.

Hand 76 [as qh jc 7h] HJ T10,243 800/1.600
An uncharacteristically long time for me not to play a hand in PLO. We’ve lost another player, seat 6, the SB in hand 68. The second chip leader in seat 1 has lost some ground and is down to 14K, with seat 9 ahead by nearly 20K. I limp in with SB, and we and BB check down to the river. The board is [4d 9s 5h ad kh]. My pair of aces is good enough to win.

Hand 79 [tc qs 3d 4s] BB T13,443 1,000/2,000
Seat 7 has been eliminated. There are two stacks with less than 3BB, and UTG chooses this point to shove with [8s kh qd ks]. I call for another 3,400, and we’re 1:2 pre-flop. The board is [5s th 6c qc 7d]. I’ve got him beat with two pair by the turn, and the river makes my straight for the win.

Hand 81 [6d qh jc ac] BTN T18,915 1,000/2,000
Down to four. Seat 1’s starting as UTG with 12BB, I’m BTN, Seat 4 has less than 4BB after paying the SB, and seat 9 still has the chip lead with 18BB pre-flop.BTN and I both limp-call a min-raise from BB. The flop was [4s 7s 7h], and since nobody had a pair of fours, a seven, or spades, a c-bet of 2,000 from BB took it down.

Hand 83 [jh 2h 6s 6c] BB T14,915 1,000/2,000
SB calls with [7d 7h 9c 3c]. Counting dead cards, I’m behind 2:3. We check through to the turn when the board is [8c ad 4h 5h], and I bet 2,000, getting a call. He’s still ahead until the [3h] on the river. I bet at the flush and he folds.

Hand 84 [ts 4c 2h 8h] SB T18,915 1,000/2,000
The big stack calls UTG with just over half the chips in play. I limp in. BB has [3d kd th 8s], and top pair with a flush draw on the [7d 3h td] flop. He shoves for 6K, UTG folds, and I call. The [6h] on the turn gives me a glimmer of hope for a suckout, but it’s [7s] on the river and his king played for a kicker to two pair.

Hand 85 [7h ah 4h 6c] BTN T11,075 1,000/2,000
I’m short stack of four, but UTG and SB on this hand have less than 9BB themselves. UTG folds, I pot to 7,000 and the blinds fold.

Hand 87 [ad 9d 2c kh] BB T14,075 1,250/2,500
Seat 1 doubled through seat 9 on the previous hand to take the chip lead. Now it’s my turn. He limps in with [ah 7h 9h 6c] and I pot to 7,500. He repots to 22,500 and I’m all in with a call. I have about a 15% lead pre-flop. The board runs down [2s 5c 5s js 2d] and my trip deuces double me up.

Hand 96 [9c 5c 3h kh] SB T20,650 1,250/2,500
I sit back a bit and let everyone else take shots at one another. I’ve slipped down into third place, but BB in seat 4 has less than 4BB and even the chip leaders in 1 and 9 only have 12BB. Action folds to me, I min-raise pre-flop and take the big blind.

Hand 99 [ah 4c 7d ad] BB T23,150 1,500/3,000
The short stack busted on hand 97, and seat 9 took half of seat 1’s chips at the same time, moving up to 50K. He and SB limp in, and I pot to 12K (despite what I said earlier about not over-valuing aces). They call. The big stack has [4h as 6h as] and SB has [7h 7s 2c kd], with just 4K behind. Three-handed, my aces are in pretty good shape. The flop is [5d ks 5c], everyone checks, then it’s [qd] on the turn and I decide to make a move by going all in. The big stack scurries off and SB puts in his last chips with about 8% equity. The case [ac] comes on the river and I’m in the lead HU.

Hand 100 [6h qh kd 7h] BTN T51,288 1,500/3,000
I opened to 9,000 and BB called with [jh kh 2s 3h]. The flop was [2c qd 9s] and I potted with top pair. He folded.

Hand 101 [4d qs 7h qh] BB T60,288 1,500/3,000
Needless to say, after BTN limped in, I potted, he re-potted and I got him all in against my queens. 86% to 14% in my favor pre-flop, with me holding one of his outs to a set. With the board running out [3c 6d 9s 6s 8s], it never got any better for him and I took the win.

Still running a high VPIP for my Omaha games: 48%. I won 21 hands (44% of hands I played). 23 of the hands I played went to showdown (48%) and I won at showdown 18 times (78%).

One hour and fifty-six minutes. 101 hands. 1st of 65 entries. +1,510% ROI.