Wild Kingdom: Hands 41-60

Bovada $500 PLO8 Bounty

Forty hands into an online PLO8 bounty tournament with 65 entries. On my table (I’m player 21), three bounties have already been claimed (I got one on hand 19). You can get a feel for just how aggressive the field is (and possibly just how bad some of the players are) by the fact that more than half the field has been eliminated already. I started in the middle of the 30/60 level, each level is lasting about seven or eight hands. PLO has more players to the flop and more post-flop action than NLHE, so hands tend to last longer, and these are full-ring tables unlike the 6-Max hand-by-hand.

At the end of Thursday’s installment, I’d lost some ground, but was still at double the starting stack. With half the players gone, that’s about chip average.

A note for anyone who’s interested in how the numbers for these charts (and the charts themselves) get cranked out. I wrote a tool using an old-school software development tool called Adobe Director. It’s so old that the first versions I used came on big bunches of floppy disks. But it has fantastically simple text parsing and file input/output, so I wrote a tool to parse a Bovada hand history file and create two new files: an HTML file with the tables, showing players, cards, stacks, and blind levels, and a text file with statements in the Poker Query Language (PQL) used by ProPokerTools. The PQL statement for each hand could be input into the PPT’s online PQL Runner (or into their desktop Odds Oracle application). The PQL cranked out chances for the cards dealt to the player to have the best high (winsHi or tiesHi) or best low (winsLo or tiesLo) hand, as well as their overall equity (riverEquity) . You can see in the sample below the results for the cards as dealt for Hand 41 for CO, D, SB, and BB, and below that how it translated into the chart. Values for subsequent streets of action were created by modifying the PQL statement.

pqlsample

HAND 41 125/250 637 A 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO 7544 4.5K 8/3 6/0 1/0 – 0/0 – –
35 D K9A9 9.6K 3/0 – – – – – –
18 SB 7A72 8.8K 17/20 19/20 54/68 – 44/6 50/6 100/0
49 BB Q5TQ 4.6K 30/0 37/0 13/0 – 6/0 – –
45 UTG 9TT8 5.1K 13/0 27/0 33/0 – 50/0 50/0 0/0
41 UTG1 463T 9.3K 22/7 – – – – – –
21 UTG2 523K 10.8K 4/11 7/17 0/10 – 0/88 0/100 0/100
42 HJ A9K4 10.1K 5/26 9/29 0/23 – 0/13 – –

D has what looks to be a strong hand, at least for a high. A suited ace, with a pair in the top half of the ranks. He has only 1% equity in the pot to start with, however, because a) he has no low; b) the other two nines are dealt out, making it impossible for him to get a set, and two other players have higher pairs; c) only three spades remain in the deck, making his flush draw more difficult; d) only one ace and one king are undealt, and even if both cards show up to make two pair and that’s the best hand, he’d potentially be splitting the pot with HJ. Nonetheless, he limps into the pot, along with four others. UTG1 folds a hand that has 17% equity, more than anyone except SB (19%, with the nut low, suited ace, and a pair) or BB (25% with a pair and no low). SB checks his monster and everyone checks behind. SB finally makes a 250 bet after his set is behind on the turn, BB folds, UTG and I call. UTG misses his draws for a straight and a flush on the river, SB’s set stays good and he bets another 250. UTG calls with the pair of aces, my 6532A low isn’t perfect but I call and take half the pot.

HAND 42 125/250 9A3 K 5
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 85K9 4.5K 24/0 – – – – – –
35 CO 7843 9.4K 4/28 37/27 15/14 – 25/8 – –
18 D 4K34 9.6K 9/24 – – – – – –
49 SB QT26 4.3K 8/8 – – – – – –
45 BB 2A5T 4.4K 15/28 52/28 79/42 – 75/33 100/33 100/0
41 UTG Q6J7 9.3K 8/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 KQ37 11.5K 1/2 – – – – – –
42 UTG2 JJ6T 9.9K 35/0 – – – – – –
54 UTG3 A2T6 5K 5/27 33/27 53/27 – 50/17 75/17 0/100

Pre-flop, UTG2 has 24% equity in the hand overall—more than twice the average of 11%—though he has no low. BB, UTG3, and CO, essentially tied for the most equity in any possible low pot, have 18%, 10%, and 8% respectively, because their best draws are to low hands. Action folds to UTG3, who limps in, along with CO. The three players check the flop. BB checks the turn and UTG3 makes a min-bet with a pair of aces. CO’s low card is counterfeit and he folds, leaving BB to make the call. With CO out of the hand, no card can come to prevent BB from at least splitting the high, and he still has a chance for the low. The river gives BB two pair but ruins his low, which goes to UTG3.

HAND 43 125/250 459 8 J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG3 TTK2 4.5K 17/0 – – – – – –
35 HJ Q2J6 9.1K 3/3 – – – – – –
18 CO T3K5 9.6K 10/15 – – – – – –
49 D 3J75 4.2K 7/15 – – – – – –
45 SB 8936 4.6K 8/0 35/17 69/35 – 75/30 – 100/0
41 BB 436A 9.3K 23/58 67/74 58/92 – 42/100 – 0/100
21 UTG 47J9 11.5K 21/0 – – – – – –
42 UTG1 5Q9T 9.9K 14/0 – – – – – –
54 UTG2 48Q7 5.2K 7/0 – – – – – –

BB’s low drawing hand with a suied ace has 42% equity, about as much as you’re ever going to get in a nine-way PLO8 hand. Which is sad, because everyone folds to SB, who limps in. SB check-calls a bet of 500 on the flop as he picks up top pair and a straight draw. SB calls another 1.5K on the turn, with top two pair, then folds his share of the pot to an all-in from BB, who takes in 4.5K. SB loses half his stack.

HAND 44 125/250 248 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 6AQK 4.5K 18/2 – – – – – –
35 UTG3 7TQ5 9.1K 16/0 – – – – – –
18 HJ K2T8 9.6K 22/0 – – – – – –
49 CO 3Q2Q 4.2K 2/8 27/9 36/3 – 0/0 – –
45 D 756A 2.3K 12/17 – – – – – –
41 SB 72J7 11.5K 7/4 – – – – – –
21 BB 56J9 11.5K 7/7 33/12 36/35 – 92/83 – –
42 UTG J43A 9.9K 10/30 41/31 31/65 – 8/17 – –
54 UTG1 9448 5.2K 13/0 – – – – – –

UTG and CO limp into the pot. Everyone checks the flop. I can’t know in BB I’ve got the best high but I’m secure with my low, and pots 875 on the turn, getting folds from both of the other players.

HAND 45 125/250 A28 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 3T5A 4.5K 15/18 – – – – – –
35 UTG2 T6J7 9.1K 12/0 – – – – – –
18 UTG3 J423 9.6K 5/38 20/47 1/100 10/100 0/100 – –
49 HJ Q55J 4.0K 10/0 – – – – – –
45 CO J4K8 2.3K 14/0 – – – – – –
41 D 9647 11.4K 11/11 – – – – – –
21 SB 8842 12.1K 12/21 23/28 85/29 90/23 100/100 – –
42 BB AKK5 9.6K 19/12 57/12 14/0 – – – –
54 UTG 79TT 5.2K 7/0 – – – – – –

UTG3 and SB (me, again) limp in. BB starts out with a pair of kings and an ace, with a not-horrible low draw, but SB flops the world, with a set and a flush draw for the high. I pot to 750 and get called by UTG3. The turn makes a flush for me and gives both of us the same 8432A low., but I pots to 2.3K and UTG3 gives it up. He’d only lose chips to call, anyway, since he’d be quartered.

HAND 46 125/250 49Q 6 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG JA72 4.5K 10/52 – – – – – –
35 UTG1 6496 9.1K 26/8 – – – – – –
18 UTG2 5T2A 8.6K 18/57 28/58 12/42 – – – –
49 UTG3 TKT7 4.0K 7/0 – – – – – –
45 HJ A498 2.3K 14/17 25/20 36/0 36/30 25/50 – 100/100
41 CO Q28J 11.4K 14/0 – – – – – –
21 D 738K 13.4K 9/1 – – – – – –
42 SB TKQQ 9.4K 18/0 28/0 47/0 64/0 75/0 – 0/0
54 BB 9J73 5.2K 5/1 21/11 5/9 – – – –

UTG and UTG2 both have suited Ax 2x hands for the best low draw, though UTG2 has a better backup low. UTG inexplicably folds, leaving UTG2 and HJ limping into the flop along with SB. SB makes top set on the flop and bets half pot, getting a call from BB, with middle pair, a backdoor straight draw and a flush draw. UTG2 folds his low draw, which looks a little vague. HJ has bottom two pair and the nut flush draw and goes all-in for 2.1K. SB raises to 5.1K. BB folds. Until those folds, HJ doesn’t have a chance to win a low pot, but now he’s in contention for the low, if there is one. The turn keeps that possibility alive, then the river brings in a flush that counterfeits SB’s set while also making a low, and HJ scoops the pot.

HAND 47 150/300 935 5 Q
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB K623 4.5K 9/0 9/0 7/0 – – – –
35 UTG 2643 9.1K 8/0 8/0 9/0 29/0 0/0 – 0
18 UTG1 TA4J 8.3K 31/0 31/0 44/0 68/0 100/0 – 100
49 UTG2 5T3J 4.0K 6/0 6/0 14/0 – – – –
45 UTG3 289J 5.6K 4/0 – – – – – –
41 HJ TKA5 11.4K 15/0 1/0 6/0 – – – –
21 CO 789Q 13.4K 29/0 29/0 27/0 – – – –
42 D 2AJ8 7.0K 5/38 5/38 3/64 3/64 0/41 – 0
54 SB 87A7 4.4K 14/0 14/0 17/0 – – – –

It’s odd to think that UTG’s low rundown hand could have a 0% chance of making the low hand, but all four of the aces are dealt, so there’s nothing that can counterfeit one of them as a low. It won’t matter in this hand anyway. Only UTG3 folds pre-flop (with just 1% equity as dealt). I have top pair and a straight draw as CO, UTG2 has bottom two pair. Action checks around to D, with the nut low draw, who bets 900. UTG and UTG1 are the only callers, with an open-ended straight draw and flush draw, respectively. The flush comes through on the turn for UTG1, D’s still drawing to a low. UTG1 bets just 600, getting calls from D and UTG (who’s drawing dead). On the river, UTG1 bets another 600 but this time nobody calls and he wins the hand.

HAND 48 150/300
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB TK6T 4.2K 5/0 – – – – – –
35 BB 7852 7.3K 8/0 – – – – – –
18 UTG AJ3A 13.4K 50/21 – – – – – –
49 UTG1 QQ49 3.7K 17/0 – – – – – –
45 UTG2 J55T 5.6K 12/0 – – – – – –
41 UTG3 6K9J 11.1K 7/0 – – – – – –
21 HJ J428 13.1K 2/16 – – – – – –
42 CO 3836 5.2K 2/0 – – – – – –
54 D 9443 4.1K 2/23 – – – – – –

After a hand of carnage, there’s often a lull, and this was one of those hands. UTG raised to 1.1K with his aces (and 42% equity) and everyone folded behind him.

HAND 49 150/300 48J 9 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D 8TA8 4.0K 30/0 – – – – – –
35 SB 3673 7.0K 5/1 – – – – – –
18 BB 366Q 13.9K 10/1 – – – – – –
49 UTG 5A34 3.7K 6/23 13/25 15/58 – 19/38 – 0
45 UTG1 J7K2 5.6K 13/0 – – – – – –
41 UTG2 24J5 11.1K 3/8 – – – – – –
21 HJ QK24 13.1K 20/6 44/6 36/1 – 31/0 – 0
54 CO TAT6 4.1K 21/0 43/0 48/0 – 50/0 – 100

UTG in this hand has a pretty good low draw and pots to 1.1K, getting calls from me (in HJ) and CO. UTG goes all-in for 2.6K on the flop, both CO and I call, though my low is broken, I do have a bad flush draw and a backdoor flush possibility. CO has the nut heart draw and a made pair. The turn gets checked, as my chances get smaller and smaller, then the river kills any possibility of a low and CO pre-flop pair of tens makes the best hand and picks up a bounty for player 49, who’s eliminated in 37th place.

HAND 50 150/300 2T2 K A
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO J94Q 4.0K 18/0 – – – – – –
35 D 264J 6.9K 7/32 – – – – – –
18 SB K677 13.6K 11/0 – – – – – –
45 BB 6QJT 5.6K 17/0 42/0 42/0 – 0 – 0
41 UTG KT33 11.1K 14/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 8847 9.4K 33/>0 58/49 58/21 – 100 – 100
54 HJ 5837 11.9K 11/18 – – – – – –

I limp in and I’m HU on the flop with BB. My chance of a low as dealt is 0.47%, but with most everyone else out of the field, I’m the only one with any chance and it’s about 50%. The flop makes a better pair for BB, but my flush draw has me in the lead for the best high by the river. The turn seals my flush as the best hand, but BB bets 300 on his straight draw and I call it.He bets another 300 on the river after making a straight, and I just call, because I do just have the fourth-best flush, and there is a possibility of a full house.

HAND 51 150/300 J5T A T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 5QA2 4.0K 15/44 – – – – – –
35 CO KKTA 6.9K 19/0 36/0 22/0 22/0 15/0 15/0 0
18 D 4JJ2 13.4K 8/5 15/6 47/1 57/8 60/10 85/45 100
45 SB 8239 4.7K 10/11 19/31 18/18 20/24 25/50 – –
41 BB 4A87 11.1K 21/13 33/36 15/14 – – – –
21 UTG 9JQ3 10.5K 22/0 – – – – – –
54 UTG1 8K96 11.9K 16/0 – – – – – –

The first three players to act fold (not really sure why HJ’s folding here, with a suited ace and Ax 2x; what’s he waiting for?), and everyone else limps in. D hits the big time with top set on the flop and calls a bet of 1.2K from CO, who has a gut-shot Broadway draw, as well as middle pair and an over pair. SB comes along with low cards and an open-ended straight draw. On the turn, D bets 1.8K, SB folds due to a timeout, and CO calls. CO goes all-in with a full house on the river, but D has a better full house and takes the pot and a bounty.

HAND 52 150/300 769 K
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 2QA5 4.0K 10/18 – – – – – –
18 CO A7KT 22.1K 30/0 49/5 99/2 100/6 100/0 – –
45 D 6383 3.2K 8/4 – – – – – –
41 SB 3243 10.8K 10/24 19/37 1/58 – – – –
21 BB JT58 10.5K 22/0 33/3 0/0 0/44 0/29 – –
54 UTG 5TQ8 11.9K 32/0 – – – – – –

CO and SB are the only limpers into the pot, despite HJ’s decent low draw and suited ace. SB checks the flop. I have a straight in BB with no equity and pot to 900. CO just calls with the nut flush, and SB folds (SB’s 1% chance for a win would be if the turn and river are running 6s, 7s, or 9s, giving him a full house). I thinks his straight might be good and bet 2.7K. CO disabuses me of my belief and pots to 10.8K. I folds.

HAND 53 200/400 TAA 7 4
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 2K7T 4.0K 13/7 – – – – – –
18 HJ 4AJ7 26.3K 21/24 28/30 55/19 65/19 100/0 – 100/0
45 CO 25AJ 3.2K 27/40 32/41 72/18 84/18 4/46 – 0/100
41 D 9K84 10.5K 11/1 – – – – – –
21 SB 4KJ7 6.6K 17/5 23/11 3/19 – – – –
54 BB Q39Q 11.9K 28/0 39/0 11/0 – – – –

HJ, CO, and SB limp in. HJ opens after the flop with trips for 700. CO shoved for 2.8K. I folded SB, BB folded, HJ called. The turn gives HJ a full house, the river makes a low for CO and they split the pot.

HAND 54 200/400 9AQ Q J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 43K6 4.0K 11/6 – – – – – –
18 UTG JA47 26.7K 15/9 36/43 13/19 – 0 – 0
45 HJ K629 3.6K 8/4 – – – – – –
41 CO 7945 10.5K 11/3 – – – – – –
21 D TAK7 6.2K 37/1 68/9 91/0 – 100 – 100
54 SB 2A82 11.5K 13/26 – – – – – –

HJ and CO fold. SB folds because of a timeout, otherwise he’d probably be in because he has the low draw. UTG and D (me) limp. BB folds, despite not having to put any money in. Chances for a low are slim on the flop, UTG bets 400 and I call. There’s no low after the turn, I have the hand locked with the river giving me enough guts to bet 3K on the river, waving off UTG.

HAND 55 200/400 898
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB J7TK 3.6K 21/0 – – – – – –
57 BB 569J 17.4K 15/7 24/14 – – – – –
18 UTG AJ39 25.5K 10/46 16/55 – – – – –
48 UTG1 483J 20.7K 17/8 – – – – – –
45 UTG2 T372 3.6K 7/14 – – – – – –
41 HJ KAQA 10.5K 12/0 27/0 – – – – –
21 CO T568 8.0K 16/7 50/22 – – – – –
54 D 2Q4K 11.3K 13/9 – – – – – –

UTG calls, HJ calls, and I call with less-than-average equity because I’m a sucker for these weird mid-range run-downs. Amazingly, with half the other players folded out, I have a 50% chance of making the best high hand by the river. Things are even better after I get trips on the flop. HJ makes a bet of 900 with his aces. I have a flush draw—the only flush draw to be made. I have trips. I have a gut-shot straight draw to the ten. And I have three live cards to a full house with eights over. I pot to 4.5K and take the hand.

HAND 56 200/400
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D 73A2 3.4K 1/30 – – – – – –
57 SB 29Q3 16.9K 13/10 – – – – – –
18 BB 574Q 25.1K 6/0 – – – – – –
48 UTG T534 20.7K 16/4 – – – – – –
45 UTG1 6K29 3.6K 14/0 – – – – – –
41 UTG2 JAJA 9.2K 32/0 – – – – – –
21 HJ 7468 10.3K 18/0 – – – – – –
54 CO 835K 11.3K 5/0 – – – – – –

UTG2 pots his double-paired hand to 1.4K and takes the blinds without contest.

HAND 57 200/400 6TJ 2 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO T8J3 3.4K 11/0 – – – – – –
57 D K765 16.8K 18/4 – – – – – –
18 SB 2387 24.7K 8/32 – – – – – –
48 BB QTAK 20.7K 23/0 30/0 47/0 – 30/0 – 0/0
45 UTG A6AJ 3.6K 15/29 70/52 54/0 – 70/0 – 100/0
41 UTG1 T3K4 9.8K 11/14 – – – – – –
21 UTG2 Q699 10.3K 14/0 – – – – – –
54 HJ 9K82 11.3K 4/>0 – – – – – –

UTG has aces and pots to 1.4K, leaving only 2.2K behind. Action folds to BB, who re-pots a Broadway run-down with two suits. UTG calls all-in and goes HU with 75% equity in the hand. There are three qualified low cards on the board by the river, but the six invalidates UTG’s low and BB has only one qualified card in his hand. UTG’s aces don’t come into play: his jack and six make two pair on the flop and he gets a double.

HAND 58 200/400 TJ6
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ Q95A 3.4K 19/7 – – – – – –
57 CO 62T8 16.8K 11/7 – – – – – –
18 D K98K 24.5K 20/0 29/0 29/0 – – – –
48 SB 5272 17.1K 3/26 – – – – – –
45 BB 3397 7.4K 18/0 30/14 26/6 – – – –
41 UTG KA44 9.8K 26/13 41/18 46/7 – – – –
21 UTG1 85T2 10.3K 3/23 – – – – – –
54 UTG2 479Q 11.3K 7/0 – – – – – –

UTG tries to limp in, everyone else folds to D, who min-raises to 800 with his pair of kings and no low draw. BB and UTG call. Both of them check the flop, then D fires for 2.6K. UTG has the best chance for a high hand, despite D’s made pair. A couple of aces for top pair, a couple of queens for Broadway, the last four for a set…hard to realize that facing a bet for more than a third of your stack and no pair. D takes the hand.

HAND 59 200/400 835 8 5
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 6Q39 3.4K 19/5 – – – – – –
57 HJ 6925 16.8K 17/20 24/31 42/10 – 19/6 – –
18 CO 7TA4 26.3K 15/43 20/45 17/73 – 12/81 13/100 0/100
48 D TK9A 16.9K 11/0 13/0 8/0 – 0/0 – –
45 SB 9Q5J 6.6K 18/0 24/0 18/0 – 38/0 37/0 100/0
41 BB KJKJ 9.0K 11/0 19/0 14/0 – 31/0 50/0 0/0
21 UTG 6TAK 10.3K 2/21 4/21 2/18 – 0/13 – –
54 UTG1 T824 11.3K 15/11 – – – – – –

Everyone except for UTG1 and UTG2 sees the flop for minimum price. Despite BB’s over pair to the flop, he’s not favored for the high with the other kings already dealt; CO has the low locked up well. Everyone checks the flop. On the turn, everyone checks to CO, who bets his low for 800. SB has the five and a flush draw and calls with precious chips from his short stack. BB keeps on with his kings, which have picked up some equity with just one card to go The three players check the river and SB’s trip 5s pick up the high pot, with CO having the only low.

HAND 60 200/400 338 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 2AT2 3.4K 16/36 – – – – – –
57 UTG2 885A 16.4K 20/14 25/44 87/52 88/60 100/37 – –
18 HJ 92K7 27.5K 15/4 – – – – – –
48 CO 656K 16.5K 9/6 – – – – – –
45 D QJ74 7.8K 11/1 22/10 0/11 – – – –
41 SB 5K4Q 7.8K 8/10 – – – – – –
21 BB Q3QJ 9.9K 11/0 24/0 13/0 12/0 0/0 – –
54 UTG 9T6A 11.3K 18/4 34/15 0/10 – – – –

UTG, UTG2, and D join me in seeing the flop. Not really sure why UTG1 folds preflop; it’s good for him that he did, but it’s really a hand he should be playing with more preflop equity than any of the others. The flop looks good for me with trips and a flush draw, but I check it. UTG2 opens to 1.8K and I’m the only caller. I really don’t know how I avoided going broke on this hand; UTG2 had far more chips than I did, I have what seems to be a decent hand, but I check-fold to a 2K bet on the turn and escape relatively inexpensively.

Summary

Still running 60% VPIP. Still no pre-flop raises. Three showdowns, lost one, took all of another, and got a low. Won four pots without showdown, more than a quarter of the hands I put money into.

Overall, nine of the twenty hands went to showdown, and there were six made lows (one of which was in a hand that went to the river but not to showdown). Ten high-pot hands had pairs (six of them tens or better), and ten winning hands had suited aces. Only two of the made low hands had A2 combos.

More PLO8 tomorrow.

My Time is Coming: Week 15 or Beatdown

Not exactly a stellar week on the felt. Maybe I should pack the whole poker-playing thing in and just write about poker instead. Oh, wait….

Final Table Portland Poker Classic $100K NLHE

I had some hopes for making some money in this to take down to Las Vegas at the end of the month, and for nine hours or so, things went pretty well.

Action got started at our table with just two players, with a third sitting down relatively soon and the rest of the seats taken as people wandered in. My friend BP was on my left, and was having issues with the player on his left.

I hit a little snag after flopping a set of fives and trying to trap, then losing to a flush. BP was struggling, and eventually I knocked him out. Got a table change off the fold-up to a real table, and things ran good. Six hours in, I was well over chip average with 100K. Then on a BB hand, I called a raise with 6♠ 4♠ and went heads up to a flop where I had a gutshot straight flush draw. The raising player tried to shake me off on the flop, then went all in on the turn. I called for most of my chips, he had Qx Qx and I made the flush on the river, knocking him out and putting me at about twice chip average, with more than 160K.

20160430 Final Table $100K max chip stack Took a couple hits, clawed my way back up to 140K, then at the 3K/6K level, I made an UTG raise to 17K, had a stack go all in for 93K in middle position, and called witih A♦ K♦ against aces. That table broke almost immediately.

I had some hope. Even with less than 8BB, I’d just watched RB—the guy who eventually won the tournament, though I didn’t know that at the time, obviously—go from 40K to 200K in the course of an orbit. I missed my big chance, though, by laying down Kx 9x (offsuit) in early position and watching the flop run out two kings, with a slightly larger stack in late position nearly tripling up with Kx 8x. My nine would have played. I was out the next hand with: Kx 8x. Lightning did not strike twice. Made it to within about 20 places of the money.

Eight hours and forty-five minutes. 42nd of 240 entries.

20160430 Final Table $100K

Bovada $500 PLO8 Turbo

Increased my stack by 50% buying in late, flopping the nut flush and winning the low on a side pot on the second hand I was dealt (4♦ 2♥ K♦ 2♣ with a flop of 2♦ A♦ 7♦) then out two hands later with 2♣ 7♥ A♣ T♠ when a river ace counterfeits my turned low.

Five minutes. 4 hands. 34th of 49 entries.

Bovada $300 O8

Got in with 15 big bets, called a raise in a multi-way pot with 7♣ A♣ 2♦ 6♥ and got in too deep to extricate myself.

Fourteen minutes. 6 hands. 37th of 41 entries.

Bovada O8 Bounty

Just a steady downward drift from starting stack, but at least I lasted longer than the other two tournaments.

Forty minutes. 20 hands. 18th of 18 entries.

Bovada 0.1/0.25 & 0.05/0.1 NLHE Zone 6-Max

Do you want to hear about how a river queen gave the guy with trips four of a kind against my flopped full house? Well, I don’t want to talk about it, either.

Six sessions. One hour and forty minutes. 277 hands. -360BB.

Bovada 0.1/0.25 PLO8 6-Max

Big hand in the first session was A♦ 5♣ 2♥ Q♦, made the flush and the low against a guy who went all-in on a turn where the board was 6♥ 5♦ 7♦ 6♦ with 3♦ 3♣ A♠ J♣. In the second, I lost most of my buyin when SB raised 3-bet me preflop and I put him all in. I had J♦ 2♦ A♠ K♣, he called off with 5♦ 4♥ 3♥ 6♣. That’s about as even as it gets.

Two sessions. Sixty-eight minutes. 69 hands. -7BB.

The Game 1/2 NLHE

The first hour went well then got in a multi-way straddled pot with 3♥ 4♥ and flopped a gut-shot straight flush draw on a 5♥ 7♥ 8x board. A player in early position check-raised to $75 and three of us ended up all in. The player who’d pushed to $75 turned over 9x Tx, thinking somehow that she had a made straight. One of the players who folded had a six, and the other guy who didn’t fold had 6♦ and made the straight on the turn.. Obviously, no heart came or I wouldn’t be whining about people who can’t read the board.

Ninety minutes. -100BB

Puffmammy NLHE

The now-infrequent home game where I first started playing NLHE. Got into it early with BW, the eventual winner. He took a bunch of chips off me in the second round and I got them back on the next hand, then he took me again not long after. I did get the high hand, but overall a poor showing.

Two and a half hours. 5th of 7 players. -69% ROI.

20160503 Puffmammy

Encore Club $1.5K NLHE

Managed to get to Encore by the break after the home game bustout. Just about made the final table.

One hour and forty minutes. 11th of 29 entries.

20160503 Encore $1.5K

Encore Club $500 NLHE

Third tournament of the night was not a charm.

Fifty minutes. 9th of 11 entries.

20160503 Encore $500

Final Table $1K NLHE

Just did my basic buyin with no addon. These are still suffering from the early cash table starts; today’s was right on the guarantee. The player in seat 6 was playing just about every hand and winning. I took off one chunk when I raised Kx Qx and he called with Ax 6x but I didn’t make it even half-way through the small field.

Two hours and forty-five minutes. 12th of 22 entries.

20160505 Final Table $1K

Final Table First Friday $20K

PDX Poker Encore Club announced a $20K opposite Final Table’s monthly event, with $80 buyin/live rebuy and $40 addon versus Final Table’s $100 buyin/rebuy and $50 addon. So I get to Final Table and sit down at the table and don’t notice that they’ve changed it to a live rebuy. Frankly, if I had noticed that before I handed over my money, I would have turned around and gone to Encore PDXPC (even though this will be my last Final Table $20K until at least August), since the max buyin there is $200 instead of $250. And I suspect the prize pool there might top Final Table’s as well.

I had Nu on my immediate left, and he went to work, as usual pulling in some big pots. I was quietly building my stack, then limped into a hand and made a pair of sizes on a straighty board. Nu and another player had called, at showdown I had the sixes with a king kicker, Nu had a pair on the flop with 4x 5x and rivered two pair. The end for me came with Qx Qx. I raised to 600 from UTG1 after UTG limped at 75/150. Nu called along with several others. The flop was Tx 4x 2x rainbow. I opened to 2K, Nu called, and a short stack in BB shoved for a little over 4K. I had another 7.5K and shoved over. Nu contemplated a bit, speculated that I had an over pair (correct, sir!), called off about half his stack and showed 9x Tx. The short stack had Ax Tx. The turn was a blank. The river was a nine and Nu took the whole pot. I went home.

Kind of wishing I’d gone to Portland Players Club to catch some Friday night Big O. It’s been a long time. I busted just a little too late to call Chad to let him know I was coming.

One hour. 72nd of 74 entries, but out waaaay before break.

20160506 Final Table $20K

Live rebuys will be the death of Portland poker. Mark my words.

Wild Kingdom: Hands 21-40

Bovada $500 PLO8 Bounty

Continuing with the tournament series we started Tuesday, I’ve nearly tripled my starting stack (as player 21). A reminder, the values in the chart are the percentage for getting the best high/low hand, not the amount of overall equity. See the first installment for a full explanation of the chart, if it’s not obvious.

HAND 21 60/120 42J 3 6
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 2T28 6.3K 23/4 37/17 13/>0 13/4 5/5 – 0/100
35 UTG1 K378 10.7K 15/6 – – – – – –
18 HJ 7559 4.9K 16/9 – – – – – –
14 CO JQ6T 3.0K 19/0 – – – – – –
4 D 8Q63 3.6K 5/23 – – – – – –
21 SB 895T 14.1K 9/0 24/9 9/55 – – – –
6 BB 464K 10.6K 20/16 46/27 82/13 87/13 95/35 – 100/0

Just UTG and me limping this hand. I check from SB on the flop, BB pots his set of fours, UTG repots his set of twos, I get the hell out of the hand, not knowing that my low’s live, and BB calls. They check the flop and it looks like BB’s going to scoop, until the river when UTG gets lucky with a card that counterfeit’s BB’s live low card.

HAND 22 60/120 942
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 3T6A 6.4K 14/13 23/17 17/60 – – – –
35 UTG 6Q2K 10.7K 12/7 – – – – – –
18 UTG1 5538 4.9K 11/9 – – – – – –
14 UTG2 7626 3.0K 3/7 6/13 5/1 – – – –
4 HJ KJT5 3.6K 27/0 – – – – – –
41 CO 2ATT 5K 6/17 20/17 41/1 – – – –
21 D 7389 14.0K 15/0 – – – – – –
6 SB J7KA 10.6K 18/0 54/0 37/0 – – – –

People seem to be playing a little tighter at this level. Three players limp in and BB checks. BB pots his low draw on the flop, and everyone else folds.

HAND 23 60/120 T7A A 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB AK95 6.7K 30/13 43/13 45/0 – 50/0 – 0
35 BB 7489 10.7K 23/2 36/6 44/0 – 25/0 – –
18 UTG 6QQ2 4.9K 2/6 – – – – – –
14 UTG1 67Q4 2.9K 9/11 – – – – – –
4 UTG2 333Q 3.6K 0/0 – – – – – –
41 UTG3 2KA8 4.9K 11/11 15/19 23/13 – 50/8 – 100
21 HJ T856 14.0K 14/0 – – – – – –
42 CO K4TJ 5K 13/0 – – – – – –
6 D 3K5J 10.5K 5/30 9/31 1/60 – 0/41 – –

NIne players, three limp in and BB checks. All four check the flop. On the turn, UTG3 and SB are likely tying the high with AAAT7, SB bets 480 and UTG3 is the only caller. The river fails to bring a low for either player, but UTG3 makes a full house and scoops.

HAND 24 60/120 622 A J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D A44Q 4.7K 9/10 27/10 0/15 – – – –
35 SB 75T2 10.6K 6/2 – – – – – –
18 BB 68A2 4.9K 6/6 17/6 100/0 100/0 100/0 – 100/0
14 UTG 6939 2.9K 1/0 – – – – – –
4 UTG1 57QK 3.6K 22/0 – – – – – –
41 UTG2 43A9 7.2K 28/29 43/29 0/54 0/54 0/100 – 0/100
21 UTG3 7487 14.0K 1/1 14/3 0/0 – – – –
42 HJ JJ38 5K 24/0 – – – – – –
6 CO T8Q9 10.4K 7/0 – – – – – –

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hand with more lopsided percentages to win. Because of the cards dealt, BB’s A2 has only a 6% chance of winning or tying a low hand, even though he’s the only player with that combo. The A34 low draw of UTG2 is actually better off. UTG and UTG1 fold, UTG2 raises to 240, and he’s called by UTG3 (with virtually no chance of winning), D, and BB. On the flop, BB scores big—though his low is gone—nobody else has a shot at the high anymore. He pots and UTG2 calls with the low draw. BB’s hand improves with a better full house on the turn, UTG2 makes his low, and they get all the chips in to chop the pot.

HAND 25 60/120 347 J 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO AJA7 4.4K 33/0 38/0 70/0 88/0 94/0 – 100/0
35 D 5532 10.5K 25/19 33/20 21/12 – – – –
18 SB 2T86 5.2K 11/2 – – – – – –
14 BB 98T6 2.9K 11/0 – – – – – –
4 UTG JQT8 3.6K 11/0 15/0 4/0 – – – –
41 UTG1 9T6K 7.4K 9/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG2 2AQK 13.8K 12/42 16/42 6/90 12/100 6/100 – 0/100
42 HJ 38K2 5K 4/13 – – – – – –

Some pre-flop raising action on this hand. UTG and I limp in, then CO pots his pair of aces (and not much else apart from the suit) to 660. D calls with some low cards, UTG calls with a run-down, and I’m in with my nut low draw and suited Broadway cards. The flop gives me a fairly strong low, and I’m going to run with it. CO has the nut flush draw and the aces, D has straight draws with an ace or a six to complete. UTG has nothing and checks. I pot my low, and CO calls. The others fold. I’ve got a slim chance to scoop with 5♠ for a wheel until the river. CO goes all-in on the turn and I call. We chop the pot.

HAND 26 80/160 K4J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 347T 5.2K 5/33 5/33 1/0 – – – –
35 CO 5QJ4 9.8K 21/0 29/0 32/0 – – – –
18 D KQT9 5.1K 14/0 20/0 49/0 – – – –
14 SB TJ63 2.8K 13/3 18/3 11/2 – – – –
4 BB 5A37 2.9K 19/53 29/53 9/56 – – – –
41 UTG 22JQ 7.4K 20/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 3659 14.5K 7/24 – – – – – –
42 UTG2 T99K 5K 14/0 – – – – – –

Four players limp in and BB checks. D has a lot of draws to a straight on the flop and pots, everyone else folds.

HAND 27 80/160 KT3 4
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 J859 5.0K 20/0 – – – – – –
35 HJ 7QJT 9.7K 17/0 – – – – – –
18 CO AJA4 5.8K 12/14 61/17 60/7 – 31/0 – –
14 D 29Q6 2.6K 12/2 – – – – – –
4 SB 766K 2.8K 9/0 – – – – – –
41 BB 324A 7.4K 13/53 42/56 41/21 – 69/32 – –
21 UTG 458Q 14.5K 14/4 – – – – – –
42 UTG1 57TK 5K 12/3 – – – – – –

CO pots his aces to 560 after everyone in front of him folds, getting a call from BB. Two high cards on the flop reduce the chance of BB’s low, both players check. The turn card is bad for CO as it gives BB two pair and the only low draw. BB bets 1.2K and CO folds.

HAND 28 80/160 996 A J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 277Q 5.0K 1/0 – – – – – –
35 UTG2 5362 9.7K 8/13 19/13 19/4 23/4 0/31 – 0
18 HJ 3A3A 5.2K 17/17 50/18 66/7 77/7 100/0 – 100
14 CO 38K5 2.6K 4/15 – – – – – –
4 D 5JA7 2.7K 15/0 31/0 15/0 – – – –
41 SB TK49 8.1K 27/0 – – – – – –
21 BB 4K82 14.5K 1/0 – – – – – –
42 UTG T7Q8 5K 33/0 – – – – – –

Let’s consider double-paired/double-suited hands for a moment. HJ’s picked up a great hand by all conventional standards: two aces with second-nut low draws, and two nut flush draws. Yet he only has a 17% chance of having the best high hand, and an equal chance of having the best low hand. Yes, he will scoop the pot in this case, but his overall starting equity is 22%, compared to 25% for SB and 26% for UTG, neither of whom has what would be considered a good hand. Anyway, UTG2 tries to limp in with his low cards, HJ pots to 720, D calls with a suited ace, and UTG2 calls. HJ’s chance for the high hand go up dramatically against just two other players. HJ pots again to 2.4K on the flop with two pair and UTG2 calls with the six and backdoor low draw. UTG2 check-calls HJ’s all-in for 2.1K on the turn, the river doesn’t bring a low, and HJ scoops with the full house.

HAND 29 80/160 7K2 2 T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 38Q6 5.0K 7/28 – – – – – –
35 UTG1 K69K 4.5K 20/0 37/0 83/0 90/0 100/0 – 100
18 UTG2 69T4 11.4K 12/0 – – – – – –
14 HJ 5287 2.6K 23/9 – – – – – –
4 CO 37AQ 2.0K 9/49 27/77 10/74 10/74 0/50 – 0
41 D JJ9Q 8.0K 24/0 26/0 3/0 – – – –
21 SB 3AT3 14.3K 1/48 7/58 3/74 3/74 0/50 – 0
42 BB TQK4 5K 8/0 9/0 4/0 – – – –

Three players limp in and BB checks. The flop looks good for my low, but great for UTG1. Four of us have backdoor draws as our only outs for the high, and that’s likely to get split up if it happens. I check my low draw, UTG1 opens up for 800, getting a fold from D and BB. I check the turn, UTG1 pots to 3.2K, and CO calls for 1K. UTG1 only has 300 behind and I raise to 6.5K. Naturally, he calls. I miss the low (which would have been a chop with CO, anyway) but CO is eliminated in 33rd position.

HAND 30 80/160
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 36KQ 5.0K 16/19 – – – – – –
35 UTG 2T74 11.2K 12/32 – – – – – –
18 UTG1 9552 11.4K 19/21 – – – – – –
14 HJ K7JQ 2.6K 26/0 – – – – – –
41 CO 3K89 7.8K 15/2 – – – – – –
21 D QT59 9.9K 12/0 – – – – – –
42 SB 486K 4.8K 11/8 – – – – – –

I just limp in as D and BB folds. I’ll have to try that more often.

HAND 31 80/160 643
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB Q73T 4.9K 10/0 – – – – – –
35 BB 9T2K 11.2K 10/0 24/0 0/0 – – – –
18 UTG 5A8K 11.4K 20/16 – – – – – –
14 UTG1 884J 2.6K 7/0 – – – – – –
45 UTG2 Q7QK 5K 18/0 37/0 3/0 – – – –
41 HJ 5342 7.8K 18/50 39/66 97/100 – – – –
21 CO 458J 10.1K 23/6 – – – – – –
42 D T96A 4.8K 19/4 – – – – – –

UTG2 and HJ limp in, BB checks. Why I didn’t call with 4♣ 5♠ 8♥ J♠ I don’t know, I actually have the best chance of making a high. HJ is all over the flop, pots it to 560, and the others fold.

HAND 32 80/160 598 T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D J5T4 4.8K 7/0 – – – – – –
35 SB K353 11.1K 4/20 14/35 8/0 – 0/0 – –
18 BB 7359 11.4K 7/20 21/36 18/2 – 0/0 – –
14 UTG TJJ8 2.6K 9/0 21/0 48/0 – 38/0 – –
45 UTG1 9QAA 4.8K 15/0 31/0 8/0 – 0/0 – –
41 UTG2 96K6 8.2K 32/0 – – – – – –
21 HJ 72JA 10.1K 11/16 22/22 18/77 – 69/56 – –
42 CO 4873 4.8K 22/24 – – – – – –

Here’s an odd—but not unusual—situation. I have A♦ 2♦, technically the best possible low combo, but SB and BB, each with 3x 5x, have a nearly 50% better chance of making the best low. How can that be? Let’s consider what’s been dealt: Axx3, 2xx1, 3xx4, 4xx1, 5xx3, 6xx2, 7xx3, and 8xx2. That leaves one ace, three deuces, three fours, one five, two sixes, a seven, and two eights. Assume three of those cards show up on the board to qualify a low. All of the threes are out, meaning that part of their draw is safe. Only one five remains to cancel out that draw. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of the remaining low cards negate my deuce, and I can’t get a three. This is when you want an extra low card. Anyway, four players limp in and BB checks. CO should be reconsidering why he didn’t come into the hand with the rest of us. We all check the flop. On the turn, I have a straight and the best low draw; since nobody bet the flush on the flop, I pot to 1.3K after a minimum bet of 160 from UTG1 and his worthless aces. Everyone folds.

HAND 33 80/160 5A8 9 J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO A3J3 4.8K 10/12 – – – – – –
35 D 94T7 10.9K 30/0 – – – – – –
18 SB 27QK 11.2K 8/0 – – – – – –
14 BB 5TA5 2.5K 23/2 45/3 67/0 70/0 81/0 – 0/0
45 UTG 6K26 4.5K 1/3 – – – – – –
41 UTG1 2QQ3 8.2K 12/22 18/35 11/89 11/89 6/94 – 0/100
21 UTG2 66JQ 10.9K 10/0 19/0 3/0 – – – –
42 HJ K244 4.8K 9/14 19/15 20/12 20/12 13/6 – 100/0

Three players limp in and BB checks. CO makes a tight but technically proper fold with his A3. Not having a backup low could easily get him into trouble here. Lots of action on the flop. BB has a set and a redraw to a full house or quads, so he pots to 720. UTG1 has the nut low and a draw to the wheel for the high, so he re-pots to 2.9K. I have nothing, so I fold. HJ goes all-in for 4.6K with the nut flush draw and second-nut low. Both BB and UTG1 call, with BB all-in for 1.6K. BB’s looking good on the turn, but the river swings the high pot to HJ’s flush and he chops the pot with UTG1, and they each get half a bounty. Player 14 finishes in 31st place.

HAND 34 100/200 3QT
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 79JQ 4.8K 18/0 – – – – – –
35 CO 626K 10.9K 18/18 – – – – – –
18 D 4297 11.2K 8/38 – – – – – –
45 BB Q9TJ 4.5K 20/0 38/0 9/0 – – – –
41 UTG 2K7K 9.6K 16/6 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 Q578 10.8K 11/3 – – – – – –
42 UTG2 A4T8 6.1K 20/21 63/55 91/25 – – – –

No SB. UTG2 is the only player to limp in; he goes HU with BB. BB checks top two pair on the flop, UTG2 bets 400 with his flush, and with only a draw to the full house on the high end, BB lets it go.

HAND 35 100/200 765
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 9QKA 4.8K 21/0 – – – – – –
35 HJ QKQ5 10.9K 4/0 – – – – – –
18 CO 2J74 11.2K 19/23 – – – – – –
45 SB K2J6 4.3K 9/12 – – – – – –
41 BB 853Q 9.6K 6/14 24/66 16/100 – – – –
21 UTG 6889 10.8K 32/0 77/8 99/12 – – – –
42 UTG1 2TJ3 6.3K 14/39 – – – – – –

I’m the only player (UTG) in the pot other than BB. BB has a draw to the same straight as me, and the best low, though he’s unlikely to realize that. I pot to 500 and he folds.

HAND 36 100/200
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 59A5 4.8K 33/13 – – – – – –
35 HJ K798 10.9K 5/0 – – – – – –
18 CO T6K6 11.2K 10/0 – – – – – –
45 D Q772 4.2K 20/9 – – – – – –
41 SB 8K8T 9.4K 11/0 – – – – – –
21 BB J636 11.1K 22/17 – – – – – –
42 UTG 984A 6.3K 11/15 – – – – – –

I get a walk in the BB. Rare in PLO8.

HAND 37 100/200 T4Q 3 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 564A 4.8K 9/10 – – – – – –
35 UTG1 JT86 10.9K 25/0 – – – – – –
18 HJ 8T94 11.2K 18/0 42/4 71/0 – 70/0 70/0 100
45 CO 83AJ 4.2K 17/13 – – – – – –
41 D Q242 9.3K 22/9 – – – – – –
21 SB 5356 11.2K 14/12 30/37 15/22 – 30/40 30/40 0
42 BB 937T 6.3K 19/0 54/2 50/47 – 20/0 – –

HJ is the only player to call out of the blinds. On the flop, HJ and BB have a good chance at a split high pot (good in the sense that a chop is likely, not that it’s really “good” for either of them). HJ has a better chance to make the high. All three check the flop. Only SB  (me) has a chance for a low after the turn, and I pick up more of an opportunity for the high. HJ bets 200, I call, BB folds. No low after the river shows up, HJ bets 400 with his straight, I fold a pair of fives.

HAND 38 100/200 K7K 3 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 3T82 4.8K 5/0 – – – – – –
35 UTG AT52 10.9K 14/37 28/37 0/15 – 0/31 – 0
18 UTG1 AA4J 11.2K 7/11 31/11 2/4 – 0/6 – 0
49 UTG2 8686 5K 12/0 – – – – – –
45 HJ 27A9 4.8K 10/33 – – – – – –
41 CO 68QQ 9.3K 27/0 – – – – – –
21 D JT59 10.8K 15/0 – – – – – –
42 SB 34JK 6.1K 20/0 45/0 98/0 – 100/0 – 100

The pair of aces in UTG’s hand has just a 7% chance of making the best high with everyone else in the hand. Both of the other aces are dealt out, something that’s fairly common with 32 of 52 cards gone from the deck in an eight-handed deal. The average equity with two aces against seven other players is only 19%; that’s about 1.5 times the average equity. That goes up to 30% with AA23. On this hand, UTG calls, UTG1 raises the aces to 900. SB and UTG call. The flop is checked around, then SB pots on the turn with a full house. UTG has a low draw and calls the 1.2K along with UTG1. SB has the nuts on the river and makes an all-in bet, the other players fold.

HAND 39 100/200 A32 Q 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB Q95T 4.6K 11/0 – – – – – –
35 BB TA53 8.8K 8/51 39/62 87/67 – 94/44 – 100/100
18 UTG 9786 9.1K 19/1 – – – – – –
49 UTG1 JAJ3 5K 9/37 68/42 54/10 – 67/0 – 100/0
45 UTG2 3KJ7 4.8K 22/2 – – – – – –
41 HJ 4QK6 9.3K 13/7 – – – – – –
21 CO A4T6 10.8K 7/19 – – – – – –
42 D Q822 10.5K 18/>0 – – – – – –

UTG1 raises to 400 and BB is the only caller. Both players have the A3 second-nut low, but only BB has a backup low card. This comes into play immediately when the players flop top two pair. On the flop, BB actually has 74% equity in the hand, compared to UTG1’s 26%. BB can only improve to a better two pair (the only hand that isn’t a tie with BB) with the final jack. BB checks the flop, UTG1 bets 450, and BB calls. The turn almost ensures a split high pot, and both players check, then the river makes the low for BB and UTG1 gets quartered.

HAND 40 100/200 8Q5 3 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D 9992 4.5K 9/0 – – – – – –
35 SB K762 9.3K 10/36 15/63 8/73 8/73 6/100 – 0/100
18 BB KT3J 9.1K 18/0 27/0 17/0 – – – –
49 UTG 7644 4.6K 17/6 – – – – – –
45 UTG1 TJ7K 4.8K 18/0 23/0 26/0 26/0 12/0 – 100/0
41 UTG2 8J34 9.3K 13/25 – – – – – –
21 HJ 672Q 10.8K 7/36 – – – – – –
42 CO KQ5A 10.5K 32/8 52/10 65/1 66/1 81/0 – 0/0

UTG1, CO, and BB limp in. The flop gives CO two pair but makes his low draw practically useless. The blinds check, UTG1 bets his straight and flush draws for 200, getting called by everyone but BB. SB locks up the low on the turn, and CO has 41% equity in the hand for just his two pair. Neither bets the turn though, and the river fills in the gap in UTG1’s straight. SB has made the lower straight and with that and the low bets pot on the river. UTG1 calls, and CO wisely folds.

Summary

I didn’t limp into quite as many hands in this stage as I did in the first twenty, Only 45% VPIP in this batch, making it 60% over the first 40 hands. Still no pre-flop raising. People are already slightly less inclined to take it to the river: hands won without showdown goes from 1 to 4. I don’t go to as many showdowns myself: only 2 hands (with 1 win).

Only one of the six hands that won a low pot at showdown had an Ax 2x combination. Six of the winning high hands contained three or four different ranks under nine (including aces). Four of the winning high hands had a pair under tens; only three had pairs Tx Tx or better.

More PLO8 action on Saturday.

#PNWPokerCalendar Planner for 4 May 2016

Encore Poker Series VIII

Still no results posted for the four EPS events from a couple weeks back, either to Facebook or Hendon Mob.

Encore, by the way, is going through some rebranding this week.

Final Table $100K Guarantee

I was sitting next to Rich when we were still around seven tables. I had an above-average stack with 20+ big blinds and Rich was down to about 6. Then he went on a tear and shot up to a couple hundred thousand in the space of an orbit. Meanwhile, I lost most of my chips (not to Rich) and went out shortly after our table broke. Congratulations to everyone for another great event.

20160430 Final Table $100K payouts

Payouts for the Final Table $100K. There were 240 entrants, with 87 rebuys and 200 addons.

The Last Month

There’s just four weeks—to the day!—before the first open event of the 2016 World Series of Poker, the $7M Guarantee Colossus II. So much to do, so much money to pull together.

As I mentioned in last week’s Planner, I’m going to be in Las Vegas as a live reporter for the WSOP from Memorial Day weekend until mid-July (as of today, I’m sort of still looking for a place to stay, as well, so if you have any leads, send me a message on Twitter). I will attempt to keep the Planner going, but I may cut the Deal until I return to Portland. In any case, things are probably going to be a little truncated for the next couple of months.

Seniors World Championship of Poker

Throwing back to the Deal a few weeks ago which rounded up seniors events during the WSOP:

Wild Kingdom

If you liked A Game That Will Live In Infamy—my equity examination of a 6-Max NLHE tournament—I posted the first 20 hands of a Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-Lo hand-by-hand yesterday. All cards exposed, down to the last hand of the tournament. More tomorrow.

Deal of the Day: Vegas

Let’s just say the Deal for next month is being in Las Vegas. By my count, for most of June, there are six tournament series running: the WSOP, the Venetian Deepstack Extravaganza III, Golden Nugget’s Grand Poker Series, the Goliath (WSOP’s younger sibling at Planet Hollywood), Binion’s Poker Classic at the WSOP’s birthplace, and the Wynn Summer Classic.

I could link to all of the individual tournament venues, but those links are all in #PNWPokerCalendar. Instead, here I’ll direct you to Kenny Hallert’s Grand Unified Poker Schedule on Dropbox. It has all of the above, plus the shorter series at Aria, M, and Bellagio, in an Excel spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has extra tabs with non-NLHE events, contact info, and rake for each buy-in level. It’s an incredibly detailed piece of work.

The other draw, of course is cash games. Frustrated tournament players need something to do to fill in the hours between games, and the ones with extra money go to the cash tables. Last year during the weekend of the Colossus, I saw morning 1-2 games at Planet Hollywood last year with $800 going into a pot. It was amazing. And PH is just a small poker room in a city of a lot of small poker rooms and some really big poker rooms.

So. Vegas.

This Week in Portland Poker

  • It’s time for another First Friday $20K guarantee at Final Table this week. $100 buyin/rebuy, $50 addon, 7pm.
  • Encore Club has its own $20K this Friday. $80 buyin/live rebuy, $40 addon. This starts at 8pm.
  • See The Game about their Cinco de Mayo complimentary nacho bar Thursday, with $2 Mexican beers and $3 margaritas. For Mother’s Day Weekend, (this Friday through Sunday) there’s a complimentary door fee and some free food and drink items. They’re also offering a drink to the first players seated in the morning game on Friday. Beginning Sunday and next Wednesday, The Game will be contributing $100+ twice a day to a Bad Beat Jackpot. And beginning next Wednesday, they start a weekly $1.5K guarantee tournament at 2pm. Coming up 21 May at 2pm is a WSOP Main Event satellite event. $100 entry/rebuy and $50 addon and the winner receives a package including a seat and travel to Las Vegas. Maybe you’ll meet me there!

Only a Day Away

  • The Cal State Poker Championship at Commerce Casino in LA is in the middle of its run. Tomorrow is the first of two starting days for a $240 buyin $250K guarantee NLHE tournament.
  • Saturday is the start of the WPTDeepstacks Central California, at Turlock Poker Room. Six events, with a $100K Main Event for $1.1K buy-in.
  • Saturday is also the 2nd Annual Central Valley Omaha Championships, an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament with a $160 buy-in. The one I won a seat for in a drawing but couldn’t get into my schedule (Fresno is a looooong drive for a $20K).
  • The 14th is Day 1A for the Rivercard $150K at Pala Casino north of San Diego. There are daily entry flights (except for Mondays and Tuesdays) through 28 May. With Day 2 on 29 May. An entry to the WSOP Main Event is taken out of the prize pool and awarded to the first place finisher.
  • Last week’s Deal, the Gardens Poker Festival starts 15 May with a $350 buyin $500K guarantee tournament.
  • The Deepstack Extravaganza Warm-Up at The Venetian gets going 16 May with a $250, 3-day $100K guarantee.

Check out the #PNWPokerCalendar for more poker.

Wild Kingdom: Hands 1-20

Bovada $500 PLO8 Bounty

A couple months back, I put together a series of articles showing equities for all of the hands dealt at my table(s) down to the last hand of a NLHE 6-Max tournament. In the middle of that project, I got into the same position in an online Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo Bounty game, also on Bovada, and I thought it might be interesting to do the same type of breakdown for the hands in that game. One installment per day (except Wednesday and Friday) until the end of the tournament.

This was a smaller tournament, with 65 entries at nine-handed tables. The bounty was one-third of the entry fee, and nine places paid. I got into the tournament in the third level.

These hand charts vary slightly from those I did for the 6-Max. Instead of equity, the values are the percentage chance of making the best hand for the high (before the slash) and the low (after the slash).

Cards are shown for each player in the CARDS column. The flop, turn, and river cards are on the first row, along with the hand number, and blinds. Suits are designated by black for spades, green for clubs, red for hearts, and blue for diamonds. My player number is 21, it’s always in bold.

If there’s no chance of a low, there will be no second number (or slash). Because more than one player may make the best hand in many situations—particularly for low pots—the values represent shared equity.

Players who win chips in a hand are highlighted in yellow. Players who receive chips from the pot but have a net loss are highlighted in red.

HAND 1 30/60 K52 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
13 SB J44J 4.7K 17/0 34/0 14/0 – – – –
16 BB K735 5.3K 12/3 16/16 44/19 55/19 70/10 – –
18 UTG 493Q 5.2K 19/29 – – – – – –
14 UTG1 926Q 5.3K 19/3 – – – – – –
4 HJ 7JA7 4.6K 14/2 7/32 14/53 14/53 5/90 – –
21 CO A5K2 5K 17/30 32/41 70/7 83/7 95/5 – –
6 D 3998 5.4K 8/0 – – – – – –

I start off in the cutoff, and my hand looks decent until the flop, where two of my three low cards are counterfeit. I do pick up top two pair for my high (so does BB). HJ has the best low with a seven, but there’s no way he can know it. He comes along with his middle pair when BB min-bets the flop, but they both fold to my pot bet on the turn.

HAND 2 30/60 K97 2 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
13 D 5AQJ 4.6K 28/2 42/2 30/3 – 25/13 25/12 0/0
16 SB QQ57 5.2K 7/0 13/0 0/0 – 0/0 – –
18 BB 9J44 5.2K 2/0 4/0 0/0 – 0/0 – –
14 UTG 3687 5.3K 27/7 – – – – – –
4 UTG1 5K3K 4.5K 27/11 33/12 64/4 – 75/18 75/19 100/0
23 UTG2 7496 5K 8/0 – – – – – –
21 HJ 3238 5.3K 1/9 6/15 4/9 – 0/6 – –
6 CO 2488 5.4K 2/0 4/0 1/0 – 0/0 – –

UTG and UTG2 fold as everyone else limps in. Six players check the flop, as UTG1 pulls ahead with top pair. Both the blinds are drawing dead for both hi and lo pots: the last queen wouldn’t catch SB up to UTG1’s set of kings, both of BB’s other fours are already dealt. UTG opens his set with a pot-sized bet on the turn, everyone folds but D, who does have Broadway and other straight draws, as well as a low draw. Nothing comes on the river except for a full house for UTG1, he makes a bet of less than half pot and D folds.

HAND 3 30/60 T82 A T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
13 CO 5J36 4.2K 0/11 – – – – – –
16 D 796K 5.2K 25/0 – – – – – –
18 SB 5Q42 5.2K 3/15 8/21 5/15 – 8/8 – 0/0
14 BB 44QT 5.3K 21/0 25/0 12/0 – 17/0 – 0/0
4 UTG 235Q 5.1K >0/17 – – – – – –
23 UTG1 77K4 5K 5/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG2 3578 5.2K 15/11 21/11 32/38 – 17/92 – 0/100
25 UTG3 2JAK 5K 19/3 27/2 22/0 – 17/0 – 0/0
6 HJ A6TJ 5.3K 20/0 26/0 33/0 – 50/0 – 100/0

UTG, UTG1, CO, and D ditch out in an unraised pot. Everyone checks the flop and turn. SB bets 120 on the river with a 8542A low, and I call with 8532A. HJ pots his full house and takes the whole pot.

HAND 4 30/60 978 5 T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
13 HJ 2J74 4.2K 29/0 38/0 63/0 66/0 100/0 – 100/0
16 CO 82Q9 5.2K 12/0 – – – – – –
18 D 62TA 5.0K 7/57 11/57 32/73 34/73 0/100 – 0/100
14 SB 298J 5.2K 15/0 – – – – – –
4 BB Q5KK 5.1K 15/0 23/0 5/0 – – – –
23 UTG JT43 5K 8/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 45QT 5.1K 8/0 – – – – – –
25 UTG2 64A3 4.9K 18/0 29/0 0/0 – – – –
6 UTG3 8AKA 5.8K 0/0 3/0 0/0 – – – –

With everyone in the hand, there is a 0% chance that UTG3’s aces win anything. UTG and I (UTG1) fold, CO folds, and D raises his A2 to 120. SB folds, and the remaining four players call. UTG3’s chances of winning the high go up to just under 3%: both of the other aces are dealt, so quads and sets are out of the picture. The best hand he can make is a full house, and only if there are three of a kind on the board and nobody else has the fourth card. Otherwise, without a flush draw, his most likely good hand is Broadway, but only one queen remains in the deck. D hits a low draw and fills in a ten-high straight, betting pot and getting a call from HJ, with flush and gut-shot straight draws. The turn makes the club flush for HJ and locks the low for D (all aces and deuces have been dealt, the low can’t be counterfeit). HJ check-raises all-in over a pot bet from D and they chop the pot.

HAND 5 40/80 A6A Q T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
18 CO 946Q 5.2K 9/3 – – – – – –
14 D A484 5.2K 4/16 8/20 15/3 15/27 0/15 – 0/0
4 SB 852T 5.0K 10/9 11/14 0/60 – – – –
23 BB 26JJ 5K 15/5 18/9 10/6 – – – –
21 UTG 9K7K 5.1K 33/0 39/0 13/3 – – – –
25 UTG1 3287 4.8K 9/15 – – – – – –
6 HJ QA75 5.7K 21/5 25/10 62/7 85/41 100/30 – 100/0

Table balancing moves a player away as we start a new level. I call with my kings, only UTG1 and CO fold pre-flop. My stock goes down radically on the flop, when HJ makes the best trips. HJ opens for 200, getting called only by D (with worse trips). HJ bets another 400 on the river after making a full house, and D calls. HJ knows he has the nuts on the river and bets 1.4K. D folds.

HAND 6 40/80 2Q9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
18 HJ 6843 5.2K 12/11 – – – – – –
14 CO 69T3 4.5K 15/1 – – – – – –
4 D T4J2 4.9K 17/14 – – – – – –
23 SB 35TK 4.9K 9/4 21/11 23/11 100/100 – – –
21 BB 994A 5.0K 10/25 34/28 68/18 0/7 – – –
25 UTG A6Q7 4.8K 26/5 – – – – – –
6 UTG1 5KK2 6.6K 13/7 47/17 9/0 – – – –

Only three players go to the flop: UTG1 and the blinds. A set of nines for BB blows up UTG1’s chances of winning the high pot, he bets 240 and the other players fold.

HAND 7 40/80 2AK 3 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
18 UTG1 9TJJ 5.2K 31/0 37/0 23/0 – 10/0 – –
14 HJ TK27 4.5K 7/3 – – – – – –
4 CO 8JT7 4.9K 16/0 19/0 17/0 – 10/0 – –
23 D KQ33 4.8K 18/0 – – – – – –
21 SB 3A64 5.1K 23/45 28/45 59/83 – 85/100 – 100/100
25 BB 6827 4.8K 17/23 18/23 6/1 – 0/15 – 0/0
6 UTG 2QT6 6.5K 5/21 15/21 12/1 – 5/15 – –

Five to the flop, and all five check. The turn locks up at least a portion of the low for me in SB, and two pair (aces and threes) is the best high so far, though a queen on the river would make Broadway for UTG1 and CO. BB bets 400 with nothing much, and I call. We both check the river and I scoop the pot.

HAND 8 40/80 576 K Q
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
18 UTG 2TKQ 5.1K 8/0 – – – – – –
14 UTG1 J94Q 4.5K 14/0 – – – – – –
4 HJ 88J4 4.8K 17/0 – – – – – –
23 CO KA6K 4.8K 12/1 32/1 1/1 – – – –
21 D 25JT 5.9K 14/9 – – – – – –
25 SB 6737 4.3K 16/2 34/3 39/1 40/1 20/0 – 0
6 BB 534A 6.5K 12/55 34/62 65/100 66/100 85/100 – 100

Only three players stay into the flop here. CO and SB limp, and BB pots. CO and SB both call. BB hits not only the bottom end of the straight cards on the board, but has an uncounterfeitable low. SB’s set of sevens probably looks great to him, because he pots, getting called by BB. CO folds, avoiding potential disaster since he would have hit a set of kings on the turn.SB pots again into BB’s made low and straight, but his best hope at this point is for the 7♥ to make his quads or for the board to pair, which doesn’t happen with the river. SB only has 180 remaining, BB puts him all-in to call, which he does. He’s the first elimination off the table and BB claims a bounty.

HAND 9 40/80 A39 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 7A56 5K 18/19 36/29 33/74 – 20/100 – –
18 UTG TT2J 5.1K 16/0 – – – – – –
14 UTG1 K3K6 4.5K 11/1 29/21 8/2 – 5/0 – –
4 UTG2 652K 4.8K 12/17 – – – – – –
23 HJ 2974 4.5K 13/14 – – – – – –
21 CO 5TJ3 5.9K 17/8 – – – – – –
6 SB 3Q78 11.1K 25/0 36/6 59/>0 – 75/0 – –

Looking at them, you wouldn’t think that a suited queen with three low cards, no ace, and no deuce was favored for the high pot over pocket kings and tens, but player 6 has nearly twice the average equity as the cards are dealt. UTG, UTG2, HJ, and I fold, UTG1 and SB limp, BB checks. Even after the folds, SB’s ahead of UTG1’s kings. While the flop favors BB, the flush draw gives SB a greater chance of winning the high pot. Everyone checks the flop. On the turn SB bets the bare minimum of 80, BB times out and is automatically folded (bummer), and UTG1 folds. SB takes the pot.

HAND 10 40/80 TJ4
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB 9A8J 4.9K 15/1 20/4 23/0 – – – –
18 BB 4QJ3 5.1K 12/9 15/9 26/0 – – – –
14 UTG 232J 4.4K 4/30 6/32 2/19 – – – –
4 UTG1 K257 4.8K 7/24 – – – – – –
23 HJ Q4K8 4.5K 17/0 – – – – – –
21 CO AT9T 5.9K 19/0 26/0 40/0 – – – –
6 D 6765 11.3K 33/8 37/23 12/15 – – – –

UTG limps in, along with me, D, and SB. BB checks. BB has a flush draw and top and bottom pair on the flop and opens to 400. I pot my set of tens and everyone folds.

HAND 11 40/80 8T7 7 5
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D 2TJA 4.8K 28/34 49/34 45/50 50/50 25/30 – 0/100
18 SB 6QJ4 4.6K 23/0 – – – – – –
14 BB 4552 4.3K 12/0 20/0 15/0 – – – –
4 UTG 76AK 4.8K 8/0 – – – – – –
23 UTG1 A452 4.5K 11/34 19/34 38/50 39/50 20/30 – 0/100
21 HJ A27K 6.6K 9/34 17/34 9/50 10/50 55/30 – 100/100
6 CO 963K 11.2K 19/0 – – – – – –

Three players have the nut low draw: with all of the aces and all but one of the deuces dealt out, they’re unlikely to be counterfeit. UTG folds, UTG1 min-raises, CO and SB are the only other players to fold. BB checks the flop and UTG1 bets 340 with the low and flush draws. I call from HJ with the middle pair and low draw. D has top pair and the low and calls before BB folds. The second seven flips everything around for the high pot (which is the only pot at the moment) and I’m content to just check. UTG1 checks the river and I bet pot on my trips, thinking that the ace kicker might be good enough. Nobody seems to have been betting a straight or full house on the previous streets. Both D and UTG1 call, and I take the entire high pot. The low gets split three ways.

HAND 12 50/100 Q5A K 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO Q644 3.8K 9/13 17/13 18/19 – 10/10 – 0/100
18 D 8J59 4.6K 16/0 – – – – – –
14 SB K478 4.2K 6/2 – – – – – –
4 BB 9925 4.8K 12/17 15/17 11/4 – 0/0 – 0/0
23 UTG QK3T 3.5K 25/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 69JJ 8.9K 23/0 37/0 16/0 – 15/0 – 0/0
6 HJ A726 11.2K 17/42 32/42 56/61 – 75/45 – 100/0

Blinds are up, UTG folds, D folds, and SB folds. Everyone else limps to the flop, then checks. The turn gets checked, as well. HJ’s equity in the low is spoiled on the river, and the small pot gets chopped by CO’s 6542A and HJ’s aces and deuces.

HAND 13 50/100 323 K 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ AQ3Q 3.9K 35/14 54/15 80/4 83/6 90/0 – 100
18 CO J757 4.6K 20/5 – – – – – –
14 D 99KJ 4.1K 13/0 21/0 1/0 – – – –
4 SB 9264 4.7K 7/33 18/33 3/56 – – – –
23 BB 6Q37 3.5K 4/18 7/20 16/17 17/61 11/44 – 0
21 UTG 46TK 8.8K 22/11 – – – – – –
6 UTG1 5955 11.3K 1/0 – – – – – –

I fold, along with UTG1 and CO, everyone else limps in. BB has one of the 3s and makes a min-bet, HJ pots to 700 with his better trips, and BB calls. HJ’s better kicker gives him a huge edge over BB for the high pot. There’s still a little room for a chop of the high pot if a queen shows up, but after calling 1.8K on the turn, BB needs a six or seven to take the pot. The river deuce negates his chances for a low, and HJ scoops, leaving BB on life support.

HAND 14 50/100 TQ2 K T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 684J 6.7K 11/1 – – – – – –
18 HJ 869J 4.6K 20/0 – – – – – –
14 CO 9K3A 4.0K 7/28 10/28 3/14 3/14 10 – 0
4 D J3JK 4.6K 16/0 17/0 17/0 17/0 15 – 0
23 SB 42T8 0.9K 17/10 30/10 55/0 57/2 65 – 100
21 BB 4937 8.8K 11/7 14/7 3/4 – – – –
6 UTG 65AA 11.3K 26/10 32/11 22/5 23/7 15 – 0

Everyone limps in except for UTG1 abd HJ, who share three ranks in their hands. Their folds increase SB’s chance to get out of the hole significantly. SB makes two pair on the flop and has the lead and pots. Everyone but me calls the 500. SB puts his remaining 250 chips in the pot and gets called by the remaining three players. The river gives him a full house. D bets 200 on the river. Nobody calls it, and in the showdown he just has two pair, and gets his 200 back. If either of the other two players in the hand had called or raised him, they would have won (CO with the same two pair and ace kicker, UTG with better two pair). SB gets back more than four times the chips he started the hand with.

HAND 15 50/100 9KA
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG K3T9 6.7K 29/0 – – – – – –
18 UTG1 4JJ4 4.6K 21/0 70/0 94/0 – – – –
14 HJ 7265 3.2K 9/17 – – – – – –
4 CO J5Q4 3.8K 27/6 – – – – – –
23 D 28K7 3.5K 7/0 – – – – – –
21 SB 8253 8.7K 1/36 5/36 1/14 – – – –
6 BB 845T 10.5K 11/6 25/6 5/1 – – – –

I don’t have much of a shot at the high pot, but I’m in good shape for a low, so I’m one of three players limping in. UTG1 opens to 300 on the flop, BB and I don’t like the looks of the board, and we fold.

HAND 16 50/100 K4T K 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 8J79 6.7K 8/0 10/0 5/0 – 0 – 0
18 UTG A7T6 4.8K 15/9 21/12 29/3 – 50 – 100
14 UTG1 39Q9 3.2K 12/0 24/0 11/0 – 15 – 0
4 HJ T552 3.8K 27/8 – – – – – –
23 CO A73J 3.5K 20/23 27/26 9/10 – 5 – 0
21 D 7Q84 8.6K 10/1 – – – – – –
6 SB 82AQ 10.4K 13/22 19/25 48/11 – 30 – 0

Everyone limps but HJ and me. Everyone left checks the flop and turn. UTG makes a tentative bet on the river of 100 and wins the pot.

HAND 17 50/100 Q84 T 5
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB J8K9 6.6K 22/0 – – – – – –
18 BB 3T76 5.2K 19/8 36/10 31/16 – – – –
14 UTG Q6KA 3.1K 13/9 32/12 3/70 3/79 5/55 – 0/100
4 UTG1 TK87 3.8K 14/0 – – – – – –
21 HJ K64A 8.6K 10/48 18/52 3/70 – – – –
37 CO 285J 5K 20/7 – – – – – –
6 D 4JA4 10.3K 12/36 21/37 66/2 97/5 95/0 – 100/0

UTG1 folds. The new player in CO is disconnected and folded. SB folds. D flops a set of fours, upending the high pot percentages. He opens on the flop to 225 and only gets a call from UTG, who has the same low draw as I do but probably thinks his queen is good. BB picks up a Broadway draw on the turn and bets 100, then calls D’s raise to 400. They both check the river and split the pot.

HAND 18 60/120 72J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D TJ47 6.5K 12/0 – – – – – –
18 SB 5Q85 5.1K 25/0 – – – – – –
14 BB 8K4A 3.2K 11/0 – – – – – –
4 UTG 96TK 3.8K 25/0 – – – – – –
21 UTG1 3263 8.5K 11/27 45/28 36/19 – – – –
37 HJ J73T 5K 11/3 – – – – – –
6 CO KAJ3 10.4K 20/38 56/38 64/57 – – – –

I limp in and CO pots to 360. I call and we see the flop HU. The flop counterfeits my lowest card, I don’t have a good draw and I check-fold to a bet of 450.

HAND 19 60/120 9A2 T 5
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO 694J 6.5K 10/7 – – – – – –
18 D A597 5.0K 11/13 – – – – – –
14 SB 4783 3.1K 7/26 – – – – – –
4 BB A5J2 3.8K 14/31 28/32 64/1 – – – –
21 UTG 4T3Q 8.2K 23/25 39/26 21/57 46/57 90/35 – 100/100
37 UTG1 T88Q 5K 23/0 43/0 17/0 71/0 75/0 – 0/0
6 HJ 7JKT 10.9K 20/0 – – – – – –

UTG1 raises to 540 and I come along. BB is in. UTG1 bets two pair on the flop, BB folds, and I call with the wheel draw. We’ve got a decent chance of a chop, but I’ve got a slight edge on the high pot. I bet 5K on the river when I make the wheel and UTG1 has to go all-in for 2.8K to call, and with just a pair, but he does, I scoop the pot, and get a bounty for knocking him out in 29th place.

HAND 20 60/120 582 4 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ TA49 6.5K 9/26 11/27 17/86 17/86 0/92 – –
18 CO 9TK9 5.0K 18/0 21/0 8/0 – – – –
14 D J874 3.0K 21/5 – – – – – –
4 SB 2286 3.2K 21/14 24/16 38/0 42/0 63/0 63/0 100/0
21 BB T5AQ 13.8K 23/14 26/14 6/14 6/14 0/92 0/92 0/100
6 UTG 358J 10.9K 19/11 27/12 35/14 35/14 37/8 37/8 0/0

Everyone limps except for D. There’s a little bit of something for nearly everyone on the flop: HJ gets the second nut low, as well as a wheel draw, SB has a set of deuces, UTG has top two pair and a flush draw. UTG bets 120 and gets three of the other four to call. UTG makes a min-bet on the turn, and gets HJ to fold, with no effect except to keep me from getting quartered. Co made the correct fold on the flop, but would have won on the river. Instead, I chop the pot with SB.

Summary

My VPIP in Omaha—and I suspect this is true of many other players—is far higher than it is in Holdem. Many more limps and calls, far fewer pre-flop raises. I know for sure that my PFR% in Omaha is less than most other Omaha players as well.

In the early stages of this game, I played 15 of 20 hands, for a VPIP of 15%. I did not raise a single hand pre-flop. I won the first hand without a showdown and then none thereafter. I went to showdown 5 times (25%), winning the high three of those times (60%), taking the low four times (80%), and winning portions of both pots three times (60%).

One quarter of the high pot winners had a suited ace. Another quarter had pocket tens or better (none had aces). Five of the high pot winners had three or more cards that were low-qualified (8 or less, including aces). Three of the winning high hands had pocket pairs below tens.

Check back Thursday for Hands 21-40!

My Time Is Coming: Report 14 or 2 Busy 2 Poker

 

In case you didn’t see my announcement in this week’s #PNWPokerCalendar, I’m going to be live reporting from the World Series of Poker this summer, and the application process, plus starting to make preparations for the long haul of the series after getting accepted, has sucked up a lot of time. On top of that, if you liked the hand-by-hand examination of a 6-Max tournament I did, I spent a large part of the last week working up a similar series of articles for a PLO8 game, showing the chance of making the best high/low hands for the players remaining on each street. That will start going live in the next couple of days. But it hasn’t left a lot of time for the poker.

HAND 93 500/1000 92T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
65 D 7AKT 25.3K 26/4 – – – – – –
6 SB 6K92 14.4K 5/8 – – – – – –
42 BB 93J5 4.8K 14/15 43/19 81/6 – – – –
7 UTG 6K73 12.9K 5/2 – – – – – –
39 HJ 9J88 44.0K 33/0 – – – – – –
21 CO 4543 15.1K 26/48 64/53 20/25 – – – –

Encore Club Encore Poker Series VIII #2 $30K NLHE

I wasn’t able to get to the tournament until 9pm, so I bought the add-on, despite it still being No Re-buy/Add-on Week. I did well for the first three hours, then started slipping down after midnight. I made a raise with A♠ Q♠ for about 25% of my stack on the last hand, then called all-in against a slightly larger stack who shoved Ax Kx from the blinds. I could have folded with 10BB behind, but I didn’t want to. Another shorter-stacked player went all-in on the same hand and was knocked out.

Four hours. 68th of 185 entries.IMG_2728

Final Table $1K NLHE

Lost a race after losing a bunch of chips in the first round of the button.

Forty-five minutes. 21st of 21 entries.

IMG_2729

The Game 1-2 NLHE

Got off work (not the WSOP job yet) and dropped into The Game for a little shootout. I need to work on following my instinct to cash out while the cashing’s good. There was just one table with six players  after midnight Wednesday, and after the first hour I was up 100BB. One of the players left the table and I was inclined to go home myself after a long day, but since there was just 40 minutes to closing, I decided to stay.

Two hours. -5BB.

#PNWPokerCalendar Planner for 27 April 2016

Pendleton Results (Final)

All of the results have been posted for the Wildhorse Spring Poker Round-Up. This edition of the High Roller (now $1.1K instead of the $2K it started off with in the fall of 2013) garnered 76 entries, for a prize pool of $72.2K. Portland’s Charlie Prom and Jacob Dahl took the top two spots. 341 entered the Main Event, making the prize pool $172K. Andy Su and Jordan Rich or Portland got 2nd and 3rd spots, with La Center’s Brian Thorp  coming in 4th. Kerry Moynahan of Beaverton came in 4th in the all-around points for the series; Charlie Prom got the point winner’s jacket by closing out first place in the High Roller and Event #2, with 439 entries.

The Immediate Future of Mutant Poker

A lot of readers here came aboard last summer, when I started doing daily round-ups of news from Las Vegas under the PNW_WSOP_15 tag. I looked through every payout list, news report, end of day report, seating chart, and blog post I could find on players from Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and, yes, Idaho. Idaho! One blog to rule them all…. Most of my work was done here in Portland, though I was able to spend Colossus weekend in the WSOP Media room (yay!). The info was on the internet, it’s a lot cheaper for me to do the work from home than Vegas. It’s been my intention to do the same thing this upcoming WSOP.

But that’s not going to happen in 2016.

That doesn’t mean I’m not going to be giving out useful information on events in Vegas. It’s just not going to be targeted to players from the Pacific Northwest, because I’ll be working as part of the WSOP’s live reporting team. I’ll be working in the Rio for most—if not all—of the seven weeks beginning right after Memorial Day. It’s an exciting opportunity for someone who likes to write about poker, which I do, though you might ask me about that in a couple of months. The long days of a poker reporter are likely to adversely affect how much info I post here through mid-July, but I’ll be back after that. There isn’t a huge amount going on regionally outside Vegas in June, anyway.

Thanks to all my regular readers. I wouldn’t be getting this gig if it wasn’t for the audience. I’ve never kept a diary, because I hate to write for a small audience, and writing just for a readership of one seems a bit masturbatory to me. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that, I just prefer to share my love.) But without knowing that there were people who at least briefly looked at the articles and calendar, I wouldn’t have kept at it, and I wouldn’t be heading to Vegas for as long as I am this year. So pat yourselves on the back.

Meanwhile, I’m just about done with another tournament blow-by-blow, this time of a 65-player Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-Lo Bounty tournament. Again, with all cards exposed, and down to the final heads-up hand. That should start later this week.

Just so you know not everything’s peaches and cream, now I’ve got so much stuff to get done in the next month I can’t take advantage of this:

Deal of the Day: Gardens

Sort of out of the blue the other day, I ran across an announcement from The Casino Formerly Known As Hawaiian Gardens Casino. Well it still is, sort of, but it looks like they’re re-branding it as just The Gardens Casino. No telling whether the city of Hawaiian Gardens is getting a name change, but I guess Hawaii just isn’t as exotic as it used to be. Anyway, the Inaugural 2016 Gardens Poker Festival is scheduled for 15 May to 1 June at “The gardens”, and it kicks off with a multi-entry-day $500K guarantee tournament with a $350 entry. Nine entry flights over the first five days of the festival, with the final day of the tournament on 20 May. There are Seniors, Limit Omaha Hi-Lo, “Raise or Fold”, Limit Big O, timed, ladies, heads up, and bounty tournaments. The biggest buy in is $440 for the $25K guarantee 64-player max HU tournament. Looks like some fun.

This Week in Portland Poker

  • Friday night is The Game‘s WSOP Ladies Event tournament, with the winner receiving a tournament entry worth $1K and a travel package to las Vegas. Sunday at noon is an $800 guarantee freeroll.
  • Early in the day on Friday at Portland Players Club/A&L Sports Pub, you can find a Dealers Choice Omaha $1/$1 shootout running at 11am. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t a
  • The Final Table’s 3rd Semi-Annual Portland Poker Classic, a $100K guarantee, with a $300 buy in/rebuy and a $100 add on is upon us. 11am Saturday. At 7pm the night before, there’s a $5K guarantee with $20 buy in and $20 pre-add on.

Only a Day Away

  • The Colorado State Poker Championship at Midnight Rose Poker Room runs through Sunday, ending with a $500 Main Event.
  • The Lucky Chances Battle of the Bay still has events with big guarantees for first place. Thursday is a $325 event with a $15K guaranteed first prize. Saturday and Sunday are entry days for the $1,105 Main Event with a $100K first-place prize.
  • Friday is the start of the Cal State Poker Championship at Commerce Casino in LA. Twenty events, running through 15 May, including four $100K guarantees, a $250K guarantee, and a $500K Main Event.
  • 7 May is the start of the WPTDeepstacks Central California, at Turlock Poker Room. Six events, with a $100K Main Event for $1.1K buy-in. And next Saturday is the 2nd Annual Central Valley Omaha Championships, an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament with a $160 buy-in.

Check out the #PNWPokerCalendar for more poker.

My Time Is Coming: Report 13 or No Rebuy Week

Every now and then I like to challenge myself to pay the bare minimum I can when I play poker. Conventional wisdom is that you should buy all the chips you can. My own philosophy is that a good player in a structure that’s decent should be just as successful (and likely more profitable) with the minimum.

Working on something big WSOP-related; may know the outcome by next week. Special thanks to everyone who’s offered support and advice this week.

Final Table $1K NLHE

Not much to say about this one. Got to the game a little behind schedule, had a couple hands go wrong, Out before break. It’s No Rebuy Week here at Mutant Poker.

Sixty minutes. 21st of 23 entries.

Final Table 11am $1K NLHE, 18 April 2016

Final Table $1K NLHE

Second stab at this one for the week. Went a little different. I didn’t build up a huge stack by the end of the first segment, but it’s also No Addon Week at Mutant Poker. Field sizes are still a bit  anemic in the 11am game, there were more shootout tables going than there were in the tournament.

I got to the final table in pretty good shape, with about a fifth of the chips in play, and played it relatively cautious as the short stacks jockeyed to see who would survive. I took a bit of a hit from JB on my left when I ran kings into aces and doubled her up, essentially swapping chips stacks, but them I managed to hit a few hands before the one pictured below.

We were down to six players with four getting paid, and I was in the big blind with aces. I don’t think I had the chip lead, but I was ahead of four of the stacks, with JB still ahead of me UTG, and what may have been the shortest stack UTG1. HJ raised and got called by CO. D raised, SB went all in, and I shoved my aces. Both HJ and CO went all in to call. HJ: kings. CO: tens. SB: jacks. Me: aces. The only Broadway card apart from an ace that was safe for me was a queen, and that was all that showed up. No flushes, no straights, no chops. Three players went out, there was no talk of a bubble, and only one of them got paid.

Four-way showdown at Final Table final table 19 April 2016

After the short stack (who’d moved up from sixth place to third as a result of that hand) busted, I suggested an even chop with a little bit of HU practice to JB, who had about 30% of the chips (first place was 180% of 2nd, but it was still just $200). We played for a little longer than that, collected our money, and I called it a day.

Final Table 11am $1K NLHE, 19 April 2016

Bovada 0.02/0.05 NLHE Zoom 6-Max

Killed some time before the start of the Encore Poker Series but didn’t go anywhere and lost a buy-in with a suited ace and a pair on two consecutive hands in the first session.

Two sessions. Twenty minutes. 77 hands. -173BB.

Bovada 0.02/0.05 PLO8 6-Max

My first session of this, I sailed down to 40BB from 100, then build up a little before I was dealt J♣ A♠ 8♠ 3♣, called a pot-sized bet pre-flop and saw the flop HU: 5♣ 7♠ 2♠. With the nut low and nut flush draw, I potted, got called, re-potted on the 8♦ turn, and went all in on the river. My 8♠ made a better two pair for the high than aces and sevens for his 4♦ 9♠ 2♥ A♦, and I scooped. Still lost the second session’s buy-in.

Two sessions. Forty-four minutes. 46 hands. -27BB.

Encore Club Encore Poker Series VIII #1 $20K NLHE

I’d though this was a re-entry tournament (sorry everyone I screwed over on the Planner write-up!) I took a big hit on the third hand with Q♦ Q♣. The flop was Jx 5♦ A♦, and I should have just broken it off there but one of the blinds was betting it and I thought I might set-mine a little. 9♦ came on the turn though, so I was now drawing to the 2nd nut flush. I was pretty confident calling the J♦, though I felt a pang about the paired board. And Well I should have, because the blind had called my raise with J♣ 5♣ and had me beat on the flop.

I built things back up from 6K to 23K before running into the same player again just before break, when I got it all in pre-flop with A♠ K♠ against his Ax Ax. Fine timing. I still had 3.5K behind. We were on the last hand before break and I was UTG1. I called a 1.1K raise with 6x 7x, and there were four or five players to the flop. 6♥ 7♥ 9♣. UTG shoves 3K (I hadn’t noticed he was so short. I called for less, and one other player called. UTG had two hearts, The caller had kc qc]. I was good on the turn, but the river was a heart and I was gone.

One hundred minutes. ~195th of 202 entries.

Encore Club EPS VIII #1 $20K NLHE, 21 April 2016

 

#PNWPokerCalendar Planner for 20 April 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-14 at 11.12.45 AMProp Bets

My first piece for PokerNews in several months came out the same day as last week’s Planner. I didn’t know exactly when it was going up, so all I could do was tease it last week, but it’s still a decent read, if you want to know how often top players make deep runs in the WSOP Main Event.

The piece was inspired by a question posed to me a couple weeks back by John Finnigan. John and a friend had a bet on the number of players who’d made it to the Top 100 of the Main Event had done it more than once, like John’s buddy, Josh Prager did in 2005 (96th) and 2013 (41st). I believe John came in low and Josh”s original number was high, then he revised it to just about dead-on. You can read the article for the number.

evandroiA prop bet from last year’s Main Event was the basis for an article I published here Monday. $5K was up for grabs between Bryce Yockey and Limon (and me). What is the return on investment (ROI) for 100 player specially selected as winners by Bryce? The answer won’t surprise you if you’ve been reading my articles over the past couple years, but it’s worth a read for the sweat.

Pendleton Results

As of post time, results were in for the first seven events at the Wildhorse Spring Poker Round-Up last week. Angela Jordison did not successfully defend her record of three wins in the first three events from last spring, but nobody won more than one of the first seven this year. Look at the PDF for details (and check the Wildhorse poker page or Hendon Mob for more results as they get posted), but here are some highlights:

  1. $120 NLHE, $3K added. 529 entrants. $53.3K prize pool.
    Winner: Lisa Meredith, Vancouver, $10.7K.
  2. $225 NLHE, $3K added. 439 entrants. $86.4K prize pool.
    Winner: Charlie Prom, Portland, $18.6K.
  3. $225 NLHE. $3K added. 189 entrants. $38.9K prize pool.
    Winner: Michael St. Pierre, Spokane, $8.1K.
  4. $225 Limit Omaha HI-Lo, $3K added. $38.5K prize pool.
    Winner: Steve Chanthabouasy, Happy Valley, $9.4K.
  5. $225 HORSE, $3K added. 118 entrants, $23.6K prize pool.
    Winner: Ted Naff, Bremerton, $6.3K.
  6. $120 NLHE Turbo, $1K added. 133 entrants. $13.6K prize pool.
    Winner: Victor Acevedo, Beaverton, $3.3K.
  7. $225 NLHE Seniors, $3K added. 267 entrants. $53.7K prize pool.
    Winner: Michael Koons, Kennewick, $12.3K.

Deal of the Day: Run It Up Reno

Twitch poker sensation Jason Somerville has taken some pages from Daniel Negreanu‘s book and used what could have been just a Warholian 15 minutes of fame to springboard into a world beyond simply playing poker. Enlisting the power of the Run It Up Legion (as he calls his army of followers), he’s become a commentator for WSOP livestreams, a sometime co-host of the PokerNews Podcast, and last fall, he produced a tournament series in Reno. PokerNews was involved in Run It Up Reno last year—something that showed in the saturation coverage they gave the series compared to anything else with buy-ins of the same size—but it was by all accounts a lot of fun, Well, he’s back. with a May edition of Run It Up Reno, once again at the Peppermill Casino, running in the week before the start of the WSOP, from 24—30 May.

Most of the schedule is $85, $125, and $235, and includes All In or Fold, PLO 6-Max, Big O 6-Max, 8-Game, and Ante-Only, among other things, culminating in a $150K NLHE Main Event for $565.

If you’re looking for something to whet your whistle right before the WSOP, it might make a nice stop on the way south.

This Week in Portland Poker

  • Encore Club‘s EPS VIII starts tomorrow evening. Details on their site, but this is the rundown: Thursday: $20K NLHE (8pm, $100 entry/re-entry live re-buy, $50 add-on); Friday: $30K NLHE (8pm, $150 entry/re-entry live re-buy, $80 add-on); Saturday: $50K NLHE (1pm, $250 entry/re-entry, $100 add-on); Sunday: $100K NLHE (noon, $500 entry/re-entry, $200 add-on).
  • The Game has a winner-takes-most tournament Friday night at 7pm. $50 buy-in, $50 re-buy, $25 add-on. Up for grabs is a 2016 WSOP NLHE Ladies package that includes the $1K entry and a 2-day Vegas travel package.
  • At the Final Table there’s a $100K guarantee is coming up a week from Saturday.
  • Big O ran at A&L Sports Pub last Friday ($1K guarantee, 6pm) and Sunday (noon). Maybe again?

Only a Day Away

  • At the Liz Flynt Spring Poker Classic, the last big event is this weekend, a $200K guarantee with $50K guaranteed to first. $220 entry, two flights per day Friday through Monday.
  • Sunday is the beginning of the Colorado State Poker Championship at Midnight Rose Poker Room near Colorado Springs. It runs through the end of the month, with a plethora of $110 tournaments, ending with a $500 Main Event.
  • If you’re in Las Vegas instead of Portland, the Wynn Signature Weekend is a $250K guarantee tournament with a $600 buy-in. Entry flights Thursday through Saturday at noon. Or you can try out Planet Hollywood‘s Phamous Weekend, with Friday and Saturday flights at noon and 4pm ($350), a $100K guarantee. Day 2 for both events are on Sunday.
  • Thursday is also the first of three days of flights for a $100K at San Diego’s Oceans 11. $240 buy-in and flights each day at 10am and 6pm, with Day 2 on Sunday.
  • The Lucky Chances Battle of the Bay is coming up Saturday, and it might be a nice next stop after you’ve cashed big at the EPS (see the Deal from last month). Multiple events with guaranteed prizes up to $100K for 1st.
  • The Last Sunday tournaments at Tulalip and Muckleshoot are, respectively, a $30K ($345 entry, 11am) and a noon $150 entry with $100 add-on.
  • Next Friday is opening day for the Cal State Poker Championship at Commerce Casino in LA. Twenty events, running through 15 May, including four $100K guarantees, a $250K guarantee, and a $500K Main Event.
  • 7 May is the start of the WPTDeepstacks Central California, at Turlock Poker Room. Six events, with a $100K Main Event for $1.1K buy-in. That day is also the start of the Club One Spring Roll 80 miles to the southeast in Fresno. It includes a multi-entry day $75K NLHE game as its primary draw, but (my error, this event was in April) That Saturday is the 2nd Annual Central Valley Omaha Championships, an Omaha Hi-Lo tournament with a $160 buy-in.

Check out the #PNWPokerCalendar for more poker.

EV and ROI At the Mirage

evandroi

EV & ROI with their magical white tiger, Markup, about to ask you for WSOP backing. Or Halloween candy.
Image source: Gina Lee Photography.

A National Public Radio Planet Money series a couple weeks back about the poker economy is finally prodding me to finish off this article, that got started just before last year’s WSOP Main Event. It’s a controversy! It’s a math problem! It’s sure to make people mad or upset! (I apologize in advance for some of the language.)

https://twitter.com/limonpoker/status/438909857236647938

Like most things these days, it started on Twitter.

Limon

Abe “Limon,” host of Live at the Bike‘s #PokerSesh, hasn’t exactly hidden his disdain for poker tournaments, poker tournament players, or poker tournament players charging markup on action they sell so they can play poker tournaments.

limon_pokersesh_14

In fact, what brought me and Limon together was a blog post I wrote that ended up on Deadspin (no link, because the bastards still haven’t paid me the $50 they owe me after two years Barry Petchesky at Deadspin saw one of my occasional complaints on Twitter in 2018 and managed to get me paid—plus some—so al is good) and spawned a TwoPlusTwo NVG thread. He invited me on his show back before it was hosted by LATB, had me back for the first LATB show, and I’ve been on a couple times since.

The article elaborated on a Card Player column by Bryan Devonshire about how you can probably make more money playing $1/$3 NLHE than as a tournament specialist in the US, bolstering Limon’s contention that most tournament players are losing players and that the reason there’s such a marketplace for staking, sharing, and swapping (jeez, it sounds like the ’70s all over) is because people are continually on the verge of financial oblivion. After all, if you have good bankroll management, why would you need someone else’s money? As Vinnie Pahuja said on the Two Plus Two PokerCast a couple of years ago: “…the majority of the MTT world is backed, because it’s just — the amount of money you really need to play the circuit or play MTTs full-time… most of us are not playing with enough money….”

Both Limon and I got lots of pushback from tournament players (unlike Limon, I am a tournament player), but not only is Limon a more—let’s say outgoing—person than myself, but he’s got years of cash game experience, he’s been on TwoPlusTwo forever, and he’s the kind of guy who would show up at a $5/$10 PLO table with $100K (plus a little) as a teaser to promote a new game at The Bike. I can give you a lot of reasons why I’m not that guy. So, while after writing my little article I continued playing tournaments and writing more little articles, Limon kept up some good-natured harassment of/ranting at any tournament reg who lipped off at him. Limon doesn’t care, he can get stung a thousand times, he doesn’t give a shit.

100k

The gray chips on the right are $1K each.

Anyway, about this time last year, a running conversation was happening on Twitter between @limonpoker and a number of others (but mainly Justin ‘@stealthmunk’ Schwartz) about expected return on investment (ROI) in the World Series of Poker Main Event (Schwarz went on to place 14th in the Main Event, as you may remember).

stealthmunk

Some outlandish numbers were being thrown around by Schwartz and others about expected ROI. On a #PokerSesh in mid-July, after most of the Main Event had played out, Limon said Schwartz had claimed months earlier that there were at least 400 players in the Main Event whose average ROI was 300%.

https://twitter.com/THAKID113086/status/581904603408629760

When Limon asked my opinion about it a couple weeks later (he also talked to David Sklansky and @realbigbadbabar), I had to agree that claims of expected value in tournaments were vastly inflated.

bet1

Schwartz never agreed to the bet, but LA player Bryce ‘@SuddenlyBryce’ Yockey did.

Gentlemen, Place Your Bets

The bet was for $5K. Full disclosure: in exchange for some research, Limon gave me 5% of the bet (that’s more than five unpaid Deadspin articles, in case you’re counting see note above). The terms went through some finessing in the couple of months leading up to the Main Event, but the essence was that Bryce could pick a slate of 100 players in the Main Event. To win the bet, Bryce’s players would have to make an ROI of 150%: they’d need to cash for a combined sum of $2.5M ($1M for the cost of their buy-ins, $1.5M in profit). Because the slate of players would have to be picked before the Main Event began, each player who could be verified as not having played would take $25K off the target of $2.5M. And oh, he couldn’t pick Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu for the slate.

Meanwhile, Limon kept hustling for more takers. And needling Schwartz.

https://twitter.com/limonpoker/status/609522887624503296

By starting day, the list was set.

Timothy Adams
Max Altergott
Calvin Anderson
Patrik Antonius
Jeremy Ausmus
David ‘Bakes’ Baker
Ami Barer
Isaac Baron
David Benefield
Justin Bonomo
Shawn Buchanan
Pratyush Buddiga
Olivier Busquet
Moshin Charania
Stephen Chidwick
Daniel Colman
Connor Drinan
Jonathan Duhamel
Darren Elias
Ari Engel
Antonio Esfandiari
Ryan Fee
Martin Finger
Phil Galfond
Stephen Graner
Sam Greenwood
Garrett Greer
Tony Gregg
Ashton Griffin
Bertrand Grospellier
Steve Gross
Phil Gruissem
Christian Harder
Isaac Haxton
Pius Heinz
Phil Hellmuth
Nicolas Henniker
Fedor Holz
Barry Hutter
Martin Jacobson
Aaron Jones
John Juanda
Kane Kalas
Mustapha Kanit
Eugene Katchalov
Byron Kaverman
Bryn Kenney
Dong Kim
Davidi Kitai
Chris Klodnicki
Jason Koon
Alexander Kostritsyn
Joe Kuether
Igor Kurganov
Jason Les
Andrew Litchenberger
Tom Marchese
Mike McDonald
Jason Mercier
Greg Merson
Sorel Mizzi
Jason Mo
Chris Moorman
Thomas Muehloecker
Dominik Nitsche
Dan O’Brien
James Obst
Steve O’Dwyer
Emil Patel
David Peters
Doug Polk
Fabien Quoss
Brian Rast
Tobias Renkenmier
Marvin Rettenmaeir
Brian Roberts
David Sands
Ole Schemion
Jake Schindler
Shannon Schorr
Nick Schulman
Huck Seed
Erik Seidel
Scott Seiver
Vanessa Selbst
Max Silver
Steven Silverman
Dan Smith
Jason Somerville
Dani Stern
Yevgenie Timoshenko
JC Tran
Sam Trickett
Vladimir Troyanovski
Dzmitry Urbanovich
Cristoph Vogelsang
Paul Volpe
Dylan Wilkerson
Sean Winter
Bryce Yockey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A number of the players had individual live tournament winnings of more than $2.5M. Eight of the top ten Hendon Mob All Time Money List players were in the group (with restricted players Negreanu and Ivey missing). Four were Main Event champions, and two others have won $2.5M in a single non-high roller event. So it wasn’t exactly a group of slackers.

Day 1: 100 Players?

On Day 1A, eleven of the players took to the field, with four falling on the first day of the challenge: Asmus, Duhamel, Griffin, Holz, Kim, Quoss, and Sands went on to Day 2. Klodnicki, Lichtenberger, Mo, and Seidel were out.

Day 1B got 30 entrants from the list, with Charania, Chidwick, Hutter, Katchalov, Kurganov, O’Dwyer, Schorr, Seiver, and Smith failing to make the cut.

Day 1C saw 43 entries by selected players. Out of this group, the early exiters were Antonius, Buchanan, Elias, Greer, Gregg, Jacobson, Kuether, Merson, Polk, and Volpe.

Players Eliminated On Days 1A, 1B, and 1C

Patrik Antonius  C
Shawn Buchanan  C
Moshin Charania  B
Stephen Chidwick  B
Darren Elias  C
Garrett Greer  C
Tony Gregg  C
Barry Hutter   B
Martin Jacobson  C
Eugene Katchalov  B
Chris Klodnicki  A
Joe Kuether  C
Igor Kurganov  B
Andrew Litchenberger  A
Greg Merson  C
Jason Mo  A
Steve O’Dwyer  B
Doug Polk  C
Shannon Schorr  B
Erik Seidel  A
Scott Seiver  B
Dan Smith  B
Paul Volpe  C

If you’ve been keeping count, you’ll notice that’s only 83 players. Some, like Juanda, didn’t make it to the show. Baker was unhappy with cards and conditions at the Rio and didn’t play. I was able to confirm several as no-shows, and anyone I couldn’t find in WSOP reporting, we counted as not having played. Seventeen players in all at $25K each, bringing the target all the way down to $2.075M.

Players Who Didn’t Play

Max Altergott
David ‘Bakes’ Baker
Ari Engel
Ryan Fee
Phil Gruissem
Pius Heinz
Nicolas Henniker
Aaron Jones
John Juanda
Bryn Kenney
Alexander Kostritsyn
Emil Patel
Vanessa Selbst
Vladimir Troyanovski
Dzmitry Urbanovich
Cristoph Vogelsang
Dylan Wilkerson

Day 2: 60 Players

Still, 60 players made it through to Day 2, with Dominick Nitsche, Fedor Holz, and Steve Gross all over 100K in chips. 28 of them started on Day 2AB, with 15 out before Day 3. Another 32 headed into Day 2C, with 17 out. 50%+1 eliminated on both Day 2s. These players were far easier to verify: anyone showing up on End of Day 1 chip counts who didn’t appear on EOD2 counts or seating for Day 3 was off the list.

Players Eliminated on Days 2AB and 2C

Calvin Anderson  C
Jeremy Ausmus  AB
Ami Barer  C
Isaac Baron  C
Pratyush Buddiga  AB
Olivier Busquet  C
Connor Drinan  C
Phil Galfond  AB
Sam Greenwood  AB
Ashton Griffin  AB
Bertrand Grospellier  C
Isaac Haxton  AB
Mustapha Kanit AB
Jason Koon  C
Jason Les  AB
Tom Marchese  AB
Mike McDonald  C
Jason Mercier  AB
Thomas Muehloecker  AB
Dominik Nitsche  AB
James Obst  C
David Peters  AB
Brian Rast  AB
Marvin Rettenmaeir  C
Brian Roberts  C
Ole Schemion  AB
Nick Schulman  C
Huck Seed  C
Max Silver  C
Jason Somerville  C
Yevgenie Timoshenko  C
Sam Trickett  C

Only 28 players were left—about a third of those from the list who’d entered—and we weren’t even to the money yet. The 2015 WSOP did have the advantage for players trying to make the money of paying out $15K to over 300 players between the historical 10% payouts and the magic number of 1,000. Day 3 started with about 1,800 players.

Day 3: 28 Players

Players On Day 3

Timothy Adams
David Benefield
Justin Bonomo
Daniel Colman
Jonathan Duhamel
Antonio Esfandiari
Martin Finger
Stephen Graner
Steve Gross
Christian Harder
Phil Hellmuth
Fedor Holz
Kane Kalas
Byron Kaverman
Dong Kim
Davidi Kitai
Sorel Mizzi
Chris Moorman
Dan O’Brien
Fabien Quoss
Tobias Renkenmier
David Sands
Jake Schindler
Steven Silverman
Dani Stern
JC Tran
Sean Winter
Bryce Yockey

10 of the 28 were eliminated before the money (names with strikeout); Benefield, Kalas, and Silverman went out before the end of day, but made the minimum cash of $15K. Really, it would have been better for Bryce if they just hadn’t shown up, because then they would have been worth $25K.

$45K in actual earnings and the rebate for selected players who hadn’t entered the Main Event, meant the goal was now $2.03M. With 15 players remaining, they needed an average cash of more than $135K to make the goal. The payout tier for 46th to 54th place netted $137.3K, with the tier below at just $113.8K.

Needless to say, there was a lot of virtual evil rubbing of hands going on at our end of the bet, though we did work up a bit of a sweat during Day 4 when Fedor Holz and Stephen Graner were both in the top 10 chip counts.

Day 4: 15 Players

Players On Day 4 and Chip Positions for Start of Day 5 (237 Remaining)

Justin Bonomo  31
Jonathan Duhamel
Antonio Esfandiari  223 Stephen Graner
Steve Gross  75
Christian Harder  125
Phil Hellmuth
Fedor Holz  180
Davidi Kitai
Dan O’Brien  217
David Sands
Jake Schindler
JC Tran
Sean Winter
Bryce Yockey

9 players cashed on Day 4 for $190.4K. Total. $21,159 on the average, rounded up. Still less than the $25K Bryce got spotted if they hadn’t shown up (Stephen Graner was the only player to cash for more than $25K for the day). Only six players remained, with $1,839,571 to go to make the goal. If one of them could make it to 6th place, the other five would only need to make twice as much as the 12 players who’d already cashed.

Day 5: 6 Players

Day 5 of the Main Event took the overall field from 237 to 69. Antonio Esfandiari, Christian Harder, and Dan O’Brien all cashed for $40,433. The three players remaining—Fedor Holz, Steve Gross, and Justin Bonomo—needed to win nearly $1.72M for Limon (and me) to lose.

Day 6: 3 Players

Day 6 gave us a bit of a scare. A player named David Peters showed up in fourth place in the chip tally. I’d eliminated his name on Day 2AB because nobody with that name showed up on the EOD3 report. Limon confirmed with Bryce that it was, indeed, a different David Peters in Day 6. Why he suddenly appeared out of nowhere, I don’t know. The WSOP reports aren’t perfect; that there hadn’t been any David Peters at one point appeared to be just a clerical error. The only “Peters” on the Start of Day 4 list is “St. Petersburg” as a hometown for a bunch of Russian players. Then “David Peters (CA)” is back on for Start of Day 5.

Justin Bonomo was the first out, in 64th place for just about $96.5K, less than an hour into the day. More than three hours went by before Steve Gross was done in 47th, for $137.3K. That meant 82 players accounted for a total of $590,473 in winnings (an average of $7.2K), leaving a lot of heavy lifting for Fedor Holz, the Last Pick Standing, to win the bet. With a target of $2.075M ($2.5M less $25K for each of the selected player who didn’t enter the Main Event), Holz would need to win $1,484,527: at least 5th place. 6th place paid $1,426,283, more than $60K short of the goal.

Day 7: Fedor Holz

Now, I don’t doubt Holz’s abilities as a poker player, but with more than 45 players left—including a number of other very good players—I was feeling pretty good about our chances. Holz had started Day 6 44th of 69, two thirds of the way down the tally. Starting Day 7 in 19th of 27 was essentially the same relative position. Instead, he went out in 25th place, 100 minutes into the day, for about $262.6K. It was almost half what all the other picks had won, but not enough.

Non-Players Come to the Rescue

All told, of the 83 players Bryce picked who played the Main Event, 18 of them cashed, an aggregate 21.7% ITM. They made a total of $853,047, between 9th and 10th place money. The average cash was $10,275, so as a group, they made their money back, but only at a rate of 2.75%, nowhere close to the 150% ROI that was the line for the bet, or the fanciful 300% ROI swirling around in last spring’s run-up.

Combined with the amount spotted for non-participants (who were all assumed at an average 150% ROI for $25K), the selected players made $1,278,047, barely half the amount needed to win the bet for Bryce. Individually, just 7 of the 83 players who entered the Main Event had individual ROI of better than 150%, less than 9% of the a group drawn from some of the most elite players in the world. Given that small percentage, the $25K allowance for the non-players was exceptionally generous; the amount the non-players made accounted for a third of the money “earned” by the selected players.

The Future

I’m fairly sure Limon’s up for the opportunity to take someone else on for this one in 2016. He said on #PokerSesh that on second thought, he might not have ruled out Hellmuth or Negreanu as selections. Even with Negreanu’s deep run (Hellmuth made $21.7K for 417th), having them in the mix wouldn’t have affected the outcome: Negreanu made $526.8K for 11th place; adding his and Hellmuth’s winnings to the money earned by the rest of the picks barely cracks $1.75M, much less $2.5M.

Substituting Negreanu and Hellmuth for a couple of the no-shows and calculating just actual winnings would have earned an average of $15.9K per player, a 59% ROI for a stable made up of 85 of the top players from around the world and including two players who made it into the final three tables of the Main Event. something only 0.4% of the entrants managed to do.

Something to keep in mind the next time you get asked to pay markup on buying some action.