Wild Kingdom: Hands 21-40

Bovada $500 PLO8 Bounty

Continuing with the tournament series we started Tuesday, I’ve nearly tripled my starting stack (as player 21). A reminder, the values in the chart are the percentage for getting the best high/low hand, not the amount of overall equity. See the first installment for a full explanation of the chart, if it’s not obvious.

HAND 21 60/120 42J 3 6
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 2T28 6.3K 23/4 37/17 13/>0 13/4 5/5 0/100
35 UTG1 K378 10.7K 15/6
18 HJ 7559 4.9K 16/9
14 CO JQ6T 3.0K 19/0
4 D 8Q63 3.6K 5/23
21 SB 895T 14.1K 9/0 24/9 9/55
6 BB 464K 10.6K 20/16 46/27 82/13 87/13 95/35 100/0

Just UTG and me limping this hand. I check from SB on the flop, BB pots his set of fours, UTG repots his set of twos, I get the hell out of the hand, not knowing that my low’s live, and BB calls. They check the flop and it looks like BB’s going to scoop, until the river when UTG gets lucky with a card that counterfeit’s BB’s live low card.

HAND 22 60/120 942
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 3T6A 6.4K 14/13 23/17 17/60
35 UTG 6Q2K 10.7K 12/7
18 UTG1 5538 4.9K 11/9
14 UTG2 7626 3.0K 3/7 6/13 5/1
4 HJ KJT5 3.6K 27/0
41 CO 2ATT 5K 6/17 20/17 41/1
21 D 7389 14.0K 15/0
6 SB J7KA 10.6K 18/0 54/0 37/0

People seem to be playing a little tighter at this level. Three players limp in and BB checks. BB pots his low draw on the flop, and everyone else folds.

HAND 23 60/120 T7A A 2
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB AK95 6.7K 30/13 43/13 45/0 50/0 0
35 BB 7489 10.7K 23/2 36/6 44/0 25/0
18 UTG 6QQ2 4.9K 2/6
14 UTG1 67Q4 2.9K 9/11
4 UTG2 333Q 3.6K 0/0
41 UTG3 2KA8 4.9K 11/11 15/19 23/13 50/8 100
21 HJ T856 14.0K 14/0
42 CO K4TJ 5K 13/0
6 D 3K5J 10.5K 5/30 9/31 1/60 0/41

NIne players, three limp in and BB checks. All four check the flop. On the turn, UTG3 and SB are likely tying the high with AAAT7, SB bets 480 and UTG3 is the only caller. The river fails to bring a low for either player, but UTG3 makes a full house and scoops.

HAND 24 60/120 622 A J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D A44Q 4.7K 9/10 27/10 0/15
35 SB 75T2 10.6K 6/2
18 BB 68A2 4.9K 6/6 17/6 100/0 100/0 100/0 100/0
14 UTG 6939 2.9K 1/0
4 UTG1 57QK 3.6K 22/0
41 UTG2 43A9 7.2K 28/29 43/29 0/54 0/54 0/100 0/100
21 UTG3 7487 14.0K 1/1 14/3 0/0
42 HJ JJ38 5K 24/0
6 CO T8Q9 10.4K 7/0

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hand with more lopsided percentages to win. Because of the cards dealt, BB’s A2 has only a 6% chance of winning or tying a low hand, even though he’s the only player with that combo. The A34 low draw of UTG2 is actually better off. UTG and UTG1 fold, UTG2 raises to 240, and he’s called by UTG3 (with virtually no chance of winning), D, and BB. On the flop, BB scores big—though his low is gone—nobody else has a shot at the high anymore. He pots and UTG2 calls with the low draw. BB’s hand improves with a better full house on the turn, UTG2 makes his low, and they get all the chips in to chop the pot.

HAND 25 60/120 347 J 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO AJA7 4.4K 33/0 38/0 70/0 88/0 94/0 100/0
35 D 5532 10.5K 25/19 33/20 21/12
18 SB 2T86 5.2K 11/2
14 BB 98T6 2.9K 11/0
4 UTG JQT8 3.6K 11/0 15/0 4/0
41 UTG1 9T6K 7.4K 9/0
21 UTG2 2AQK 13.8K 12/42 16/42 6/90 12/100 6/100 0/100
42 HJ 38K2 5K 4/13

Some pre-flop raising action on this hand. UTG and I limp in, then CO pots his pair of aces (and not much else apart from the suit) to 660. D calls with some low cards, UTG calls with a run-down, and I’m in with my nut low draw and suited Broadway cards. The flop gives me a fairly strong low, and I’m going to run with it. CO has the nut flush draw and the aces, D has straight draws with an ace or a six to complete. UTG has nothing and checks. I pot my low, and CO calls. The others fold. I’ve got a slim chance to scoop with [5s] for a wheel until the river. CO goes all-in on the turn and I call. We chop the pot.

HAND 26 80/160 K4J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 347T 5.2K 5/33 5/33 1/0
35 CO 5QJ4 9.8K 21/0 29/0 32/0
18 D KQT9 5.1K 14/0 20/0 49/0
14 SB TJ63 2.8K 13/3 18/3 11/2
4 BB 5A37 2.9K 19/53 29/53 9/56
41 UTG 22JQ 7.4K 20/0
21 UTG1 3659 14.5K 7/24
42 UTG2 T99K 5K 14/0

Four players limp in and BB checks. D has a lot of draws to a straight on the flop and pots, everyone else folds.

HAND 27 80/160 KT3 4
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 J859 5.0K 20/0
35 HJ 7QJT 9.7K 17/0
18 CO AJA4 5.8K 12/14 61/17 60/7 31/0
14 D 29Q6 2.6K 12/2
4 SB 766K 2.8K 9/0
41 BB 324A 7.4K 13/53 42/56 41/21 69/32
21 UTG 458Q 14.5K 14/4
42 UTG1 57TK 5K 12/3

CO pots his aces to 560 after everyone in front of him folds, getting a call from BB. Two high cards on the flop reduce the chance of BB’s low, both players check. The turn card is bad for CO as it gives BB two pair and the only low draw. BB bets 1.2K and CO folds.

HAND 28 80/160 996 A J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 277Q 5.0K 1/0
35 UTG2 5362 9.7K 8/13 19/13 19/4 23/4 0/31 0
18 HJ 3A3A 5.2K 17/17 50/18 66/7 77/7 100/0 100
14 CO 38K5 2.6K 4/15
4 D 5JA7 2.7K 15/0 31/0 15/0
41 SB TK49 8.1K 27/0
21 BB 4K82 14.5K 1/0
42 UTG T7Q8 5K 33/0

Let’s consider double-paired/double-suited hands for a moment. HJ’s picked up a great hand by all conventional standards: two aces with second-nut low draws, and two nut flush draws. Yet he only has a 17% chance of having the best high hand, and an equal chance of having the best low hand. Yes, he will scoop the pot in this case, but his overall starting equity is 22%, compared to 25% for SB and 26% for UTG, neither of whom has what would be considered a good hand. Anyway, UTG2 tries to limp in with his low cards, HJ pots to 720, D calls with a suited ace, and UTG2 calls. HJ’s chance for the high hand go up dramatically against just two other players. HJ pots again to 2.4K on the flop with two pair and UTG2 calls with the six and backdoor low draw. UTG2 check-calls HJ’s all-in for 2.1K on the turn, the river doesn’t bring a low, and HJ scoops with the full house.

HAND 29 80/160 7K2 2 T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 38Q6 5.0K 7/28
35 UTG1 K69K 4.5K 20/0 37/0 83/0 90/0 100/0 100
18 UTG2 69T4 11.4K 12/0
14 HJ 5287 2.6K 23/9
4 CO 37AQ 2.0K 9/49 27/77 10/74 10/74 0/50 0
41 D JJ9Q 8.0K 24/0 26/0 3/0
21 SB 3AT3 14.3K 1/48 7/58 3/74 3/74 0/50 0
42 BB TQK4 5K 8/0 9/0 4/0

Three players limp in and BB checks. The flop looks good for my low, but great for UTG1. Four of us have backdoor draws as our only outs for the high, and that’s likely to get split up if it happens. I check my low draw, UTG1 opens up for 800, getting a fold from D and BB. I check the turn, UTG1 pots to 3.2K, and CO calls for 1K. UTG1 only has 300 behind and I raise to 6.5K. Naturally, he calls. I miss the low (which would have been a chop with CO, anyway) but CO is eliminated in 33rd position.

HAND 30 80/160
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 36KQ 5.0K 16/19
35 UTG 2T74 11.2K 12/32
18 UTG1 9552 11.4K 19/21
14 HJ K7JQ 2.6K 26/0
41 CO 3K89 7.8K 15/2
21 D QT59 9.9K 12/0
42 SB 486K 4.8K 11/8

I just limp in as D and BB folds. I’ll have to try that more often.

HAND 31 80/160 643
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB Q73T 4.9K 10/0
35 BB 9T2K 11.2K 10/0 24/0 0/0
18 UTG 5A8K 11.4K 20/16
14 UTG1 884J 2.6K 7/0
45 UTG2 Q7QK 5K 18/0 37/0 3/0
41 HJ 5342 7.8K 18/50 39/66 97/100
21 CO 458J 10.1K 23/6
42 D T96A 4.8K 19/4

UTG2 and HJ limp in, BB checks. Why I didn’t call with [4c 5s 8h js] I don’t know, I actually have the best chance of making a high. HJ is all over the flop, pots it to 560, and the others fold.

HAND 32 80/160 598 T
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D J5T4 4.8K 7/0
35 SB K353 11.1K 4/20 14/35 8/0 0/0
18 BB 7359 11.4K 7/20 21/36 18/2 0/0
14 UTG TJJ8 2.6K 9/0 21/0 48/0 38/0
45 UTG1 9QAA 4.8K 15/0 31/0 8/0 0/0
41 UTG2 96K6 8.2K 32/0
21 HJ 72JA 10.1K 11/16 22/22 18/77 69/56
42 CO 4873 4.8K 22/24

Here’s an odd—but not unusual—situation. I have [ad 2d], technically the best possible low combo, but SB and BB, each with [3x 5x], have a nearly 50% better chance of making the best low. How can that be? Let’s consider what’s been dealt: [ax]x3, [2x]x1, [3x]x4, [4x]x1, [5x]x3, [6x]x2, [7x]x3, and [8x]x2. That leaves one ace, three deuces, three fours, one five, two sixes, a seven, and two eights. Assume three of those cards show up on the board to qualify a low. All of the threes are out, meaning that part of their draw is safe. Only one five remains to cancel out that draw. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of the remaining low cards negate my deuce, and I can’t get a three. This is when you want an extra low card. Anyway, four players limp in and BB checks. CO should be reconsidering why he didn’t come into the hand with the rest of us. We all check the flop. On the turn, I have a straight and the best low draw; since nobody bet the flush on the flop, I pot to 1.3K after a minimum bet of 160 from UTG1 and his worthless aces. Everyone folds.

HAND 33 80/160 5A8 9 J
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 CO A3J3 4.8K 10/12
35 D 94T7 10.9K 30/0
18 SB 27QK 11.2K 8/0
14 BB 5TA5 2.5K 23/2 45/3 67/0 70/0 81/0 0/0
45 UTG 6K26 4.5K 1/3
41 UTG1 2QQ3 8.2K 12/22 18/35 11/89 11/89 6/94 0/100
21 UTG2 66JQ 10.9K 10/0 19/0 3/0
42 HJ K244 4.8K 9/14 19/15 20/12 20/12 13/6 100/0

Three players limp in and BB checks. CO makes a tight but technically proper fold with his A3. Not having a backup low could easily get him into trouble here. Lots of action on the flop. BB has a set and a redraw to a full house or quads, so he pots to 720. UTG1 has the nut low and a draw to the wheel for the high, so he re-pots to 2.9K. I have nothing, so I fold. HJ goes all-in for 4.6K with the nut flush draw and second-nut low. Both BB and UTG1 call, with BB all-in for 1.6K. BB’s looking good on the turn, but the river swings the high pot to HJ’s flush and he chops the pot with UTG1, and they each get half a bounty. Player 14 finishes in 31st place.

HAND 34 100/200 3QT
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 HJ 79JQ 4.8K 18/0
35 CO 626K 10.9K 18/18
18 D 4297 11.2K 8/38
45 BB Q9TJ 4.5K 20/0 38/0 9/0
41 UTG 2K7K 9.6K 16/6
21 UTG1 Q578 10.8K 11/3
42 UTG2 A4T8 6.1K 20/21 63/55 91/25

No SB. UTG2 is the only player to limp in; he goes HU with BB. BB checks top two pair on the flop, UTG2 bets 400 with his flush, and with only a draw to the full house on the high end, BB lets it go.

HAND 35 100/200 765
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG2 9QKA 4.8K 21/0
35 HJ QKQ5 10.9K 4/0
18 CO 2J74 11.2K 19/23
45 SB K2J6 4.3K 9/12
41 BB 853Q 9.6K 6/14 24/66 16/100
21 UTG 6889 10.8K 32/0 77/8 99/12
42 UTG1 2TJ3 6.3K 14/39

I’m the only player (UTG) in the pot other than BB. BB has a draw to the same straight as me, and the best low, though he’s unlikely to realize that. I pot to 500 and he folds.

HAND 36 100/200
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG1 59A5 4.8K 33/13
35 HJ K798 10.9K 5/0
18 CO T6K6 11.2K 10/0
45 D Q772 4.2K 20/9
41 SB 8K8T 9.4K 11/0
21 BB J636 11.1K 22/17
42 UTG 984A 6.3K 11/15

I get a walk in the BB. Rare in PLO8.

HAND 37 100/200 T4Q 3 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 UTG 564A 4.8K 9/10
35 UTG1 JT86 10.9K 25/0
18 HJ 8T94 11.2K 18/0 42/4 71/0 70/0 70/0 100
45 CO 83AJ 4.2K 17/13
41 D Q242 9.3K 22/9
21 SB 5356 11.2K 14/12 30/37 15/22 30/40 30/40 0
42 BB 937T 6.3K 19/0 54/2 50/47 20/0

HJ is the only player to call out of the blinds. On the flop, HJ and BB have a good chance at a split high pot (good in the sense that a chop is likely, not that it’s really “good” for either of them). HJ has a better chance to make the high. All three check the flop. Only SB  (me) has a chance for a low after the turn, and I pick up more of an opportunity for the high. HJ bets 200, I call, BB folds. No low after the river shows up, HJ bets 400 with his straight, I fold a pair of fives.

HAND 38 100/200 K7K 3 3
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 BB 3T82 4.8K 5/0
35 UTG AT52 10.9K 14/37 28/37 0/15 0/31 0
18 UTG1 AA4J 11.2K 7/11 31/11 2/4 0/6 0
49 UTG2 8686 5K 12/0
45 HJ 27A9 4.8K 10/33
41 CO 68QQ 9.3K 27/0
21 D JT59 10.8K 15/0
42 SB 34JK 6.1K 20/0 45/0 98/0 100/0 100

The pair of aces in UTG’s hand has just a 7% chance of making the best high with everyone else in the hand. Both of the other aces are dealt out, something that’s fairly common with 32 of 52 cards gone from the deck in an eight-handed deal. The average equity with two aces against seven other players is only 19%; that’s about 1.5 times the average equity. That goes up to 30% with AA23. On this hand, UTG calls, UTG1 raises the aces to 900. SB and UTG call. The flop is checked around, then SB pots on the turn with a full house. UTG has a low draw and calls the 1.2K along with UTG1. SB has the nuts on the river and makes an all-in bet, the other players fold.

HAND 39 100/200 A32 Q 8
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 SB Q95T 4.6K 11/0
35 BB TA53 8.8K 8/51 39/62 87/67 94/44 100/100
18 UTG 9786 9.1K 19/1
49 UTG1 JAJ3 5K 9/37 68/42 54/10 67/0 100/0
45 UTG2 3KJ7 4.8K 22/2
41 HJ 4QK6 9.3K 13/7
21 CO A4T6 10.8K 7/19
42 D Q822 10.5K 18/>0

UTG1 raises to 400 and BB is the only caller. Both players have the A3 second-nut low, but only BB has a backup low card. This comes into play immediately when the players flop top two pair. On the flop, BB actually has 74% equity in the hand, compared to UTG1’s 26%. BB can only improve to a better two pair (the only hand that isn’t a tie with BB) with the final jack. BB checks the flop, UTG1 bets 450, and BB calls. The turn almost ensures a split high pot, and both players check, then the river makes the low for BB and UTG1 gets quartered.

HAND 40 100/200 8Q5 3 9
PLAYER POSITION CARDS CHIPS START PRE-FLOP POST-FLOP PRE-TURN POST-TURN PRE-RIVER RIVER
33 D 9992 4.5K 9/0
35 SB K762 9.3K 10/36 15/63 8/73 8/73 6/100 0/100
18 BB KT3J 9.1K 18/0 27/0 17/0
49 UTG 7644 4.6K 17/6
45 UTG1 TJ7K 4.8K 18/0 23/0 26/0 26/0 12/0 100/0
41 UTG2 8J34 9.3K 13/25
21 HJ 672Q 10.8K 7/36
42 CO KQ5A 10.5K 32/8 52/10 65/1 66/1 81/0 0/0

UTG1, CO, and BB limp in. The flop gives CO two pair but makes his low draw practically useless. The blinds check, UTG1 bets his straight and flush draws for 200, getting called by everyone but BB. SB locks up the low on the turn, and CO has 41% equity in the hand for just his two pair. Neither bets the turn though, and the river fills in the gap in UTG1’s straight. SB has made the lower straight and with that and the low bets pot on the river. UTG1 calls, and CO wisely folds.

Summary

I didn’t limp into quite as many hands in this stage as I did in the first twenty, Only 45% VPIP in this batch, making it 60% over the first 40 hands. Still no pre-flop raising. People are already slightly less inclined to take it to the river: hands won without showdown goes from 1 to 4. I don’t go to as many showdowns myself: only 2 hands (with 1 win).

Only one of the six hands that won a low pot at showdown had an [ax 2x] combination. Six of the winning high hands contained three or four different ranks under nine (including aces). Four of the winning high hands had a pair under tens; only three had pairs [tx tx] or better.

More PLO8 action on Saturday.