Wild Kingdom: Hands 21-40

Bovada $500 PLO8 Bounty

Continuing with the tournament series we started Tuesday, I’ve nearly tripled my starting stack (as player 21). A reminder, the values in the chart are the percentage for getting the best high/low hand, not the amount of overall equity. See the first installment for a full explanation of the chart, if it’s not obvious.

HAND 2160/12042J36
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG2T286.3K23/437/1713/>013/45/50/100
35UTG1K37810.7K15/6
18HJ75594.9K16/9
14COJQ6T3.0K19/0
4D8Q633.6K5/23
21SB895T14.1K9/024/99/55
6BB464K10.6K20/1646/2782/1387/1395/35100/0

Just UTG and me limping this hand. I check from SB on the flop, BB pots his set of fours, UTG repots his set of twos, I get the hell out of the hand, not knowing that my low’s live, and BB calls. They check the flop and it looks like BB’s going to scoop, until the river when UTG gets lucky with a card that counterfeit’s BB’s live low card.

HAND 2260/120942
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33BB3T6A6.4K14/1323/1717/60
35UTG6Q2K10.7K12/7
18UTG155384.9K11/9
14UTG276263.0K3/76/135/1
4HJKJT53.6K27/0
41CO2ATT5K6/1720/1741/1
21D738914.0K15/0
6SBJ7KA10.6K18/054/037/0

People seem to be playing a little tighter at this level. Three players limp in and BB checks. BB pots his low draw on the flop, and everyone else folds.

HAND 2360/120T7AA2
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33SBAK956.7K30/1343/1345/050/00
35BB748910.7K23/236/644/025/0
18UTG6QQ24.9K2/6
14UTG167Q42.9K9/11
4UTG2333Q3.6K0/0
41UTG32KA84.9K11/1115/1923/1350/8100
21HJT85614.0K14/0
42COK4TJ5K13/0
6D3K5J10.5K5/309/311/600/41

NIne players, three limp in and BB checks. All four check the flop. On the turn, UTG3 and SB are likely tying the high with AAAT7, SB bets 480 and UTG3 is the only caller. The river fails to bring a low for either player, but UTG3 makes a full house and scoops.

HAND 2460/120622AJ
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33DA44Q4.7K9/1027/100/15
35SB75T210.6K6/2
18BB68A24.9K6/617/6100/0100/0100/0100/0
14UTG69392.9K1/0
4UTG157QK3.6K22/0
41UTG243A97.2K28/2943/290/540/540/1000/100
21UTG3748714.0K1/114/30/0
42HJJJ385K24/0
6COT8Q910.4K7/0

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hand with more lopsided percentages to win. Because of the cards dealt, BB’s A2 has only a 6% chance of winning or tying a low hand, even though he’s the only player with that combo. The A34 low draw of UTG2 is actually better off. UTG and UTG1 fold, UTG2 raises to 240, and he’s called by UTG3 (with virtually no chance of winning), D, and BB. On the flop, BB scores big—though his low is gone—nobody else has a shot at the high anymore. He pots and UTG2 calls with the low draw. BB’s hand improves with a better full house on the turn, UTG2 makes his low, and they get all the chips in to chop the pot.

HAND 2560/120347J9
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33COAJA74.4K33/038/070/088/094/0100/0
35D553210.5K25/1933/2021/12
18SB2T865.2K11/2
14BB98T62.9K11/0
4UTGJQT83.6K11/015/04/0
41UTG19T6K7.4K9/0
21UTG22AQK13.8K12/4216/426/9012/1006/1000/100
42HJ38K25K4/13

Some pre-flop raising action on this hand. UTG and I limp in, then CO pots his pair of aces (and not much else apart from the suit) to 660. D calls with some low cards, UTG calls with a run-down, and I’m in with my nut low draw and suited Broadway cards. The flop gives me a fairly strong low, and I’m going to run with it. CO has the nut flush draw and the aces, D has straight draws with an ace or a six to complete. UTG has nothing and checks. I pot my low, and CO calls. The others fold. I’ve got a slim chance to scoop with 5 for a wheel until the river. CO goes all-in on the turn and I call. We chop the pot.

HAND 2680/160K4J
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33HJ347T5.2K5/335/331/0
35CO5QJ49.8K21/029/032/0
18DKQT95.1K14/020/049/0
14SBTJ632.8K13/318/311/2
4BB5A372.9K19/5329/539/56
41UTG22JQ7.4K20/0
21UTG1365914.5K7/24
42UTG2T99K5K14/0

Four players limp in and BB checks. D has a lot of draws to a straight on the flop and pots, everyone else folds.

HAND 2780/160KT34
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG2J8595.0K20/0
35HJ7QJT9.7K17/0
18COAJA45.8K12/1461/1760/731/0
14D29Q62.6K12/2
4SB766K2.8K9/0
41BB324A7.4K13/5342/5641/2169/32
21UTG458Q14.5K14/4
42UTG157TK5K12/3

CO pots his aces to 560 after everyone in front of him folds, getting a call from BB. Two high cards on the flop reduce the chance of BB’s low, both players check. The turn card is bad for CO as it gives BB two pair and the only low draw. BB bets 1.2K and CO folds.

HAND 2880/160996AJ
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG1277Q5.0K1/0
35UTG253629.7K8/1319/1319/423/40/310
18HJ3A3A5.2K17/1750/1866/777/7100/0100
14CO38K52.6K4/15
4D5JA72.7K15/031/015/0
41SBTK498.1K27/0
21BB4K8214.5K1/0
42UTGT7Q85K33/0

Let’s consider double-paired/double-suited hands for a moment. HJ’s picked up a great hand by all conventional standards: two aces with second-nut low draws, and two nut flush draws. Yet he only has a 17% chance of having the best high hand, and an equal chance of having the best low hand. Yes, he will scoop the pot in this case, but his overall starting equity is 22%, compared to 25% for SB and 26% for UTG, neither of whom has what would be considered a good hand. Anyway, UTG2 tries to limp in with his low cards, HJ pots to 720, D calls with a suited ace, and UTG2 calls. HJ’s chance for the high hand go up dramatically against just two other players. HJ pots again to 2.4K on the flop with two pair and UTG2 calls with the six and backdoor low draw. UTG2 check-calls HJ’s all-in for 2.1K on the turn, the river doesn’t bring a low, and HJ scoops with the full house.

HAND 2980/1607K22T
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG38Q65.0K7/28
35UTG1K69K4.5K20/037/083/090/0100/0100
18UTG269T411.4K12/0
14HJ52872.6K23/9
4CO37AQ2.0K9/4927/7710/7410/740/500
41DJJ9Q8.0K24/026/03/0
21SB3AT314.3K1/487/583/743/740/500
42BBTQK45K8/09/04/0

Three players limp in and BB checks. The flop looks good for my low, but great for UTG1. Four of us have backdoor draws as our only outs for the high, and that’s likely to get split up if it happens. I check my low draw, UTG1 opens up for 800, getting a fold from D and BB. I check the turn, UTG1 pots to 3.2K, and CO calls for 1K. UTG1 only has 300 behind and I raise to 6.5K. Naturally, he calls. I miss the low (which would have been a chop with CO, anyway) but CO is eliminated in 33rd position.

HAND 3080/160
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33BB36KQ5.0K16/19
35UTG2T7411.2K12/32
18UTG1955211.4K19/21
14HJK7JQ2.6K26/0
41CO3K897.8K15/2
21DQT599.9K12/0
42SB486K4.8K11/8

I just limp in as D and BB folds. I’ll have to try that more often.

HAND 3180/160643
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33SBQ73T4.9K10/0
35BB9T2K11.2K10/024/00/0
18UTG5A8K11.4K20/16
14UTG1884J2.6K7/0
45UTG2Q7QK5K18/037/03/0
41HJ53427.8K18/5039/6697/100
21CO458J10.1K23/6
42DT96A4.8K19/4

UTG2 and HJ limp in, BB checks. Why I didn’t call with 458J I don’t know, I actually have the best chance of making a high. HJ is all over the flop, pots it to 560, and the others fold.

HAND 3280/160598T
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33DJ5T44.8K7/0
35SBK35311.1K4/2014/358/00/0
18BB735911.4K7/2021/3618/20/0
14UTGTJJ82.6K9/021/048/038/0
45UTG19QAA4.8K15/031/08/00/0
41UTG296K68.2K32/0
21HJ72JA10.1K11/1622/2218/7769/56
42CO48734.8K22/24

Here’s an odd—but not unusual—situation. I have A2, technically the best possible low combo, but SB and BB, each with 3x5x, have a nearly 50% better chance of making the best low. How can that be? Let’s consider what’s been dealt: Axx3, 2xx1, 3xx4, 4xx1, 5xx3, 6xx2, 7xx3, and 8xx2. That leaves one ace, three deuces, three fours, one five, two sixes, a seven, and two eights. Assume three of those cards show up on the board to qualify a low. All of the threes are out, meaning that part of their draw is safe. Only one five remains to cancel out that draw. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of the remaining low cards negate my deuce, and I can’t get a three. This is when you want an extra low card. Anyway, four players limp in and BB checks. CO should be reconsidering why he didn’t come into the hand with the rest of us. We all check the flop. On the turn, I have a straight and the best low draw; since nobody bet the flush on the flop, I pot to 1.3K after a minimum bet of 160 from UTG1 and his worthless aces. Everyone folds.

HAND 3380/1605A89J
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33COA3J34.8K10/12
35D94T710.9K30/0
18SB27QK11.2K8/0
14BB5TA52.5K23/245/367/070/081/00/0
45UTG6K264.5K1/3
41UTG12QQ38.2K12/2218/3511/8911/896/940/100
21UTG266JQ10.9K10/019/03/0
42HJK2444.8K9/1419/1520/1220/1213/6100/0

Three players limp in and BB checks. CO makes a tight but technically proper fold with his A3. Not having a backup low could easily get him into trouble here. Lots of action on the flop. BB has a set and a redraw to a full house or quads, so he pots to 720. UTG1 has the nut low and a draw to the wheel for the high, so he re-pots to 2.9K. I have nothing, so I fold. HJ goes all-in for 4.6K with the nut flush draw and second-nut low. Both BB and UTG1 call, with BB all-in for 1.6K. BB’s looking good on the turn, but the river swings the high pot to HJ’s flush and he chops the pot with UTG1, and they each get half a bounty. Player 14 finishes in 31st place.

HAND 34100/2003QT
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33HJ79JQ4.8K18/0
35CO626K10.9K18/18
18D429711.2K8/38
45BBQ9TJ4.5K20/038/09/0
41UTG2K7K9.6K16/6
21UTG1Q57810.8K11/3
42UTG2A4T86.1K20/2163/5591/25

No SB. UTG2 is the only player to limp in; he goes HU with BB. BB checks top two pair on the flop, UTG2 bets 400 with his flush, and with only a draw to the full house on the high end, BB lets it go.

HAND 35100/200765
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG29QKA4.8K21/0
35HJQKQ510.9K4/0
18CO2J7411.2K19/23
45SBK2J64.3K9/12
41BB853Q9.6K6/1424/6616/100
21UTG688910.8K32/077/899/12
42UTG12TJ36.3K14/39

I’m the only player (UTG) in the pot other than BB. BB has a draw to the same straight as me, and the best low, though he’s unlikely to realize that. I pot to 500 and he folds.

HAND 36100/200
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG159A54.8K33/13
35HJK79810.9K5/0
18COT6K611.2K10/0
45DQ7724.2K20/9
41SB8K8T9.4K11/0
21BBJ63611.1K22/17
42UTG984A6.3K11/15

I get a walk in the BB. Rare in PLO8.

HAND 37100/200T4Q39
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33UTG564A4.8K9/10
35UTG1JT8610.9K25/0
18HJ8T9411.2K18/042/471/070/070/0100
45CO83AJ4.2K17/13
41DQ2429.3K22/9
21SB535611.2K14/1230/3715/2230/4030/400
42BB937T6.3K19/054/250/4720/0

HJ is the only player to call out of the blinds. On the flop, HJ and BB have a good chance at a split high pot (good in the sense that a chop is likely, not that it’s really “good” for either of them). HJ has a better chance to make the high. All three check the flop. Only SB  (me) has a chance for a low after the turn, and I pick up more of an opportunity for the high. HJ bets 200, I call, BB folds. No low after the river shows up, HJ bets 400 with his straight, I fold a pair of fives.

HAND 38100/200K7K33
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33BB3T824.8K5/0
35UTGAT5210.9K14/3728/370/150/310
18UTG1AA4J11.2K7/1131/112/40/60
49UTG286865K12/0
45HJ27A94.8K10/33
41CO68QQ9.3K27/0
21DJT5910.8K15/0
42SB34JK6.1K20/045/098/0100/0100

The pair of aces in UTG’s hand has just a 7% chance of making the best high with everyone else in the hand. Both of the other aces are dealt out, something that’s fairly common with 32 of 52 cards gone from the deck in an eight-handed deal. The average equity with two aces against seven other players is only 19%; that’s about 1.5 times the average equity. That goes up to 30% with AA23. On this hand, UTG calls, UTG1 raises the aces to 900. SB and UTG call. The flop is checked around, then SB pots on the turn with a full house. UTG has a low draw and calls the 1.2K along with UTG1. SB has the nuts on the river and makes an all-in bet, the other players fold.

HAND 39100/200A32Q8
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33SBQ95T4.6K11/0
35BBTA538.8K8/5139/6287/6794/44100/100
18UTG97869.1K19/1
49UTG1JAJ35K9/3768/4254/1067/0100/0
45UTG23KJ74.8K22/2
41HJ4QK69.3K13/7
21COA4T610.8K7/19
42DQ82210.5K18/>0

UTG1 raises to 400 and BB is the only caller. Both players have the A3 second-nut low, but only BB has a backup low card. This comes into play immediately when the players flop top two pair. On the flop, BB actually has 74% equity in the hand, compared to UTG1’s 26%. BB can only improve to a better two pair (the only hand that isn’t a tie with BB) with the final jack. BB checks the flop, UTG1 bets 450, and BB calls. The turn almost ensures a split high pot, and both players check, then the river makes the low for BB and UTG1 gets quartered.

HAND 40100/2008Q539
PLAYERPOSITIONCARDSCHIPSSTARTPRE-FLOPPOST-FLOPPRE-TURNPOST-TURNPRE-RIVERRIVER
33D99924.5K9/0
35SBK7629.3K10/3615/638/738/736/1000/100
18BBKT3J9.1K18/027/017/0
49UTG76444.6K17/6
45UTG1TJ7K4.8K18/023/026/026/012/0100/0
41UTG28J349.3K13/25
21HJ672Q10.8K7/36
42COKQ5A10.5K32/852/1065/166/181/00/0

UTG1, CO, and BB limp in. The flop gives CO two pair but makes his low draw practically useless. The blinds check, UTG1 bets his straight and flush draws for 200, getting called by everyone but BB. SB locks up the low on the turn, and CO has 41% equity in the hand for just his two pair. Neither bets the turn though, and the river fills in the gap in UTG1’s straight. SB has made the lower straight and with that and the low bets pot on the river. UTG1 calls, and CO wisely folds.

Summary

I didn’t limp into quite as many hands in this stage as I did in the first twenty, Only 45% VPIP in this batch, making it 60% over the first 40 hands. Still no pre-flop raising. People are already slightly less inclined to take it to the river: hands won without showdown goes from 1 to 4. I don’t go to as many showdowns myself: only 2 hands (with 1 win).

Only one of the six hands that won a low pot at showdown had an Ax2x combination. Six of the winning high hands contained three or four different ranks under nine (including aces). Four of the winning high hands had a pair under tens; only three had pairs TxTx or better.

More PLO8 action on Saturday.