Filling In the Gaps

The revised payout structure for the WSOP Main Event (ensuring at least $1M for every member of the November Nine and paying $15,000 to 300+ places beyond last year’s bubble) left a few holes in the 30 tiers of payouts from the 2014 event. Everything’s subject to change—depending on the number of entrants, of course—but by graphing the payouts provided by the WSOP and extrapolating from previous years’ payout levels, this is our educated guess as to what the rest of the structure would look like (based, as theirs were, on the number of entries in the 2015 Main Event and a $62,825,752 prize pool).

Payouts for 2015 in the chart below in bold are numbers from the  WSOP’s news release about the payout modifications. Total payout comes to $6 off of last year’s prize pool (that’s just 0.000009% off target and about the price of a cup of coffee at the Rio)!

Payout TierPlaces# of Payouts in Tier2015 Estimated Payout 2014 Actual Payout
111$8,000,000$10,000,000
221$4,663,527$5,417,911
331$3,500,000$3,807,753
441$2,750,000 $2,849,763
551$2,000,000 $2,143,794
661$1,500,000 $1,622,471
771$1,250,000 $1,236,084
881$1,100,000 $947,172
991$1,000,000 $730,725
1010-123$550,000 $565,193
1113-153$434,176$441,940
1216-183$344,971$347,521
1319-279$275,875 $286,900
1428-369$222,053 $230,487
1537-459$167,999 $186,388
1646-549$142,500 $152,025
1755-639$116,950 $124,447
1864-729$96,605 $103,025
1973-819$80,318 $85,812
2082-909$67,211 $72,369
2191-999$56,608 $61,313
22100-16263$50,000 $52,141
23163-22563$42,661 $44,728
24226-28863$36,636 $38,634
25289-35163$31,666 $33,732
26352-41463$27,548 $29,400
27415-47763$24,122 $25,756
28478-54972$20,850 $22,678
29550-62172$18,495 $20,228
30623-69372$16,750 $18,406
31694-1000307$15,000 $0

Aside from the obvious advantage for about 5% of the field getting half their buy-in back instead of nothing, the big changes are for the last couple of November Niners, who could see more than a third-again as much money than they would  have in 2014. Those bonuses comes at the obvious expense of the player on the top (hopefully, you didn’t go and spend your $10M guarantee payday anywhere yet) and the players at the bottom of the structure (payouts 37-693), who are losing less in absolute dollar value but a larger percentage of their cash, than players higher in the structure, for the most part. Once again, here is the projected 2015 payout curve, compared to 2014 and 2009. It is less funky than 2009.

Payouts2015-14-09