{"id":1379,"date":"2016-04-18T09:00:50","date_gmt":"2016-04-18T16:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mutantpoker.com\/?p=1379"},"modified":"2019-05-18T16:42:11","modified_gmt":"2019-05-18T23:42:11","slug":"ev-and-roi-at-the-mirage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mutantpoker.com\/?p=1379","title":{"rendered":"EV and ROI At the Mirage"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"evandroi\"<\/a>

EV & ROI with their magical white tiger, Markup, about to ask you for WSOP backing. Or Halloween candy.
Image source: Gina Lee Photography<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>\n

A National Public Radio <\/strong>Planet Money<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>series a couple\u00a0weeks back about the poker economy<\/a> is finally prodding me to finish off this article, that got started just before last year’s WSOP Main Event<\/strong>. It’s a controversy! It’s a math problem! It’s sure to make people mad or upset! (I apologize in advance for some of the language.)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/limonpoker\/status\/438909857236647938<\/p>\n

Like most things these days, it started on Twitter<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Limon<\/h1>\n

Abe “Limon<\/strong>,” host of Live at the Bike<\/a><\/strong>‘s #PokerSesh<\/strong>, hasn’t exactly hidden his disdain for poker tournaments, poker tournament players, or poker tournament players charging markup on action they sell so they can play poker tournaments.<\/p>\n

\"limon_pokersesh_14\"<\/p>\n

In fact, what brought me and Limon together was a blog post I wrote<\/a> that ended up on Deadspin<\/strong>\u00a0(no link, because the bastards still haven’t paid me the $50 they owe me after two years<\/del>\u00a0Barry Petchesky<\/strong> at Deadspin saw one of my occasional complaints on Twitter in 2018 and managed to get me paid\u2014plus some\u2014so al is good) and spawned a TwoPlusTwo NVG<\/strong> thread<\/a>. He invited me on his show back before it was hosted by LATB, had me back for the first LATB show, and I’ve been on a couple times since.<\/p>\n

The article elaborated on a Card Player<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0column by Bryan Devonshire<\/strong> about how you can probably make more money playing $1\/$3 NLHE than as a tournament specialist in the US<\/strong>, bolstering\u00a0Limon’s contention that most tournament players are losing players<\/strong> and that the reason there’s such a marketplace for staking, sharing, and swapping<\/strong> (jeez, it sounds like the ’70s all over) is because people are continually on the verge of financial oblivion<\/strong>. After all, if you have good bankroll management, why would you need someone else’s money? As Vinnie Pahuja<\/strong> said on the Two Plus Two PokerCast<\/strong><\/a> a couple of years ago: “…the majority of the MTT world is backed, because it\u2019s just \u2014 the amount of money you really need to play the circuit or play MTTs full-time… most of us are not playing with enough money<\/strong>….”<\/i><\/p>\n

Both Limon and I got lots of pushback from tournament players (unlike Limon, I\u00a0am<\/em> a tournament player), but not only is Limon a more\u2014let’s say\u00a0outgoing<\/em>\u2014person than myself, but he’s got years of cash game experience, he’s been on TwoPlusTwo forever<\/a>, and he’s the kind of guy who would show up at a $5\/$10 PLO table with $100K (plus a little) as a teaser<\/a>\u00a0to promote a new game at The Bike<\/strong>. I can give you a lot<\/em> of reasons why I’m not that guy. So, while after writing my little article I continued playing tournaments and writing more little articles, Limon kept up some\u00a0good-natured harassment of\/ranting at any tournament reg who lipped off at him. Limon doesn’t care, he can get stung a thousand times, he doesn’t give a shit<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"100k\"

The gray chips on the right are $1K each.<\/p><\/div>\n

Anyway, about this time last year, a running conversation was happening on Twitter between @limonpoker<\/strong> and a number of others (but mainly Justin ‘@stealthmunk’ Schwartz<\/strong>)<\/a>\u00a0about expected return on investment (ROI) in the World Series of Poker Main Event<\/strong> (Schwarz went on to place 14th in the Main Event, as you may remember).<\/p>\n

\"stealthmunk\"<\/p>\n

Some outlandish numbers were being thrown around by Schwartz and others about expected ROI. On a #PokerSesh in mid-July, after most of the Main Event had played out, Limon said Schwartz had claimed months earlier that there were\u00a0at least<\/em>\u00a0400 players in the Main Event whose average ROI was 300%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/THAKID113086\/status\/581904603408629760<\/p>\n

When Limon asked my opinion about it a couple weeks later (he also talked to David Sklansky<\/a><\/strong> and @realbigbadbabar<\/a><\/strong>), I had to agree that claims of expected value in tournaments were vastly\u00a0inflated.<\/p>\n

\"bet1\"<\/p>\n

Schwartz never agreed to the bet, but LA player\u00a0Bryce ‘@SuddenlyBryce’ Yockey<\/a><\/strong> did.<\/p>\n

Gentlemen, Place Your Bets<\/h1>\n

The\u00a0bet was for $5K. Full disclosure: in exchange for some research, Limon gave me 5% of the bet (that’s more than five unpaid Deadspin articles<\/strong>, in case you’re counting<\/del> see note above).<\/em> The terms went through some finessing in the couple of months leading up to the Main Event, but the essence was that Bryce\u00a0could pick a slate of 100 players in the Main Event<\/strong>. To win the bet, Bryce’s players would have to make an ROI of 150%: they’d need to cash for a combined sum of $2.5M<\/strong> ($1M for the cost of their buy-ins, $1.5M in profit). Because\u00a0the slate of players would have to be picked before the Main Event\u00a0began, each player who could be verified as not having played would take $25K off the target<\/strong> of $2.5M. And oh, he couldn’t pick Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu<\/strong> for the slate.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile,\u00a0Limon kept hustling for more takers. And needling Schwartz.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/limonpoker\/status\/609522887624503296<\/p>\n

By starting day, the list was set.<\/p>\n

Timothy Adams
\nMax Altergott
\nCalvin Anderson
\nPatrik Antonius
\nJeremy Ausmus
\nDavid ‘Bakes’ Baker
\nAmi Barer
\nIsaac Baron
\nDavid Benefield
\nJustin Bonomo
\nShawn Buchanan
\nPratyush Buddiga
\nOlivier Busquet
\nMoshin Charania
\nStephen Chidwick
\nDaniel Colman
\nConnor Drinan
\nJonathan Duhamel
\nDarren Elias
\nAri Engel
\nAntonio Esfandiari
\nRyan Fee
\nMartin Finger
\nPhil Galfond
\nStephen Graner<\/div>\n
Sam Greenwood
\nGarrett Greer
\nTony Gregg
\nAshton Griffin
\nBertrand Grospellier
\nSteve Gross
\nPhil Gruissem
\nChristian Harder
\nIsaac Haxton
\nPius Heinz
\nPhil Hellmuth
\nNicolas Henniker
\nFedor Holz
\nBarry Hutter
\nMartin Jacobson
\nAaron Jones
\nJohn Juanda
\nKane Kalas
\nMustapha Kanit
\nEugene Katchalov
\nByron Kaverman
\nBryn Kenney
\nDong Kim
\nDavidi Kitai
\nChris Klodnicki<\/div>\n
Jason Koon
\nAlexander Kostritsyn
\nJoe Kuether
\nIgor Kurganov
\nJason Les
\nAndrew Litchenberger
\nTom Marchese
\nMike McDonald
\nJason Mercier
\nGreg Merson
\nSorel Mizzi
\nJason Mo
\nChris Moorman
\nThomas Muehloecker
\nDominik Nitsche
\nDan O’Brien
\nJames Obst
\nSteve O’Dwyer
\nEmil Patel
\nDavid Peters
\nDoug Polk
\nFabien Quoss
\nBrian Rast
\nTobias Renkenmier
\nMarvin Rettenmaeir<\/div>\n
Brian Roberts
\nDavid Sands
\nOle Schemion
\nJake Schindler
\nShannon Schorr
\nNick Schulman
\nHuck Seed
\nErik Seidel
\nScott Seiver
\nVanessa Selbst
\nMax Silver
\nSteven Silverman
\nDan Smith
\nJason Somerville
\nDani Stern
\nYevgenie Timoshenko
\nJC Tran
\nSam Trickett
\nVladimir Troyanovski
\nDzmitry Urbanovich
\nCristoph Vogelsang
\nPaul Volpe
\nDylan Wilkerson
\nSean Winter
\nBryce Yockey<\/div>\n

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A number of the players had individual live tournament winnings of more than $2.5M<\/strong>.\u00a0Eight of the top ten Hendon Mob All Time Money List<\/a> players<\/strong> were in the group (with restricted players Negreanu and Ivey missing). Four were Main Event champions<\/strong>, and\u00a0two others have\u00a0won $2.5M in a single non-high roller event<\/a><\/strong>. So it wasn’t exactly a group of slackers.<\/p>\n

Day 1: 100 Players?<\/h1>\n

On Day 1A, eleven of the players took to the field, with four falling<\/strong> on the first day of the challenge: Asmus, Duhamel, Griffin, Holz, Kim, Quoss, and Sands went on to Day 2. Klodnicki, Lichtenberger, Mo,\u00a0and Seidel were out.<\/p>\n

Day 1B got\u00a030 entrants from\u00a0the list<\/strong>, with Charania, Chidwick, Hutter, Katchalov, Kurganov, O’Dwyer, Schorr, Seiver, and Smith failing to make the cut.<\/p>\n

Day 1C saw 43 entries by selected players<\/strong>. Out of this group, the early exiters were Antonius, Buchanan, Elias, Greer, Gregg, Jacobson, Kuether, Merson, Polk, and Volpe.<\/p>\n

Players Eliminated On Days 1A, 1B, and 1C<\/em><\/p>\n

Patrik Antonius \u00a0C
\nShawn Buchanan \u00a0C
\nMoshin Charania \u00a0B
\nStephen Chidwick \u00a0B
\nDarren Elias \u00a0C<\/div>\n
Garrett Greer \u00a0C
\nTony Gregg \u00a0C
\nBarry Hutter \u00a0 B
\nMartin Jacobson \u00a0C
\nEugene Katchalov \u00a0B
\nChris Klodnicki \u00a0A<\/div>\n
Joe Kuether \u00a0C
\nIgor Kurganov \u00a0B
\nAndrew Litchenberger \u00a0A
\nGreg Merson \u00a0C
\nJason Mo \u00a0A
\nSteve O’Dwyer \u00a0B
\nDoug Polk \u00a0C<\/div>\n
Shannon Schorr \u00a0B
\nErik Seidel \u00a0A
\nScott Seiver \u00a0B
\nDan Smith \u00a0B
\nPaul Volpe \u00a0C<\/div>\n

\n

\n

Would like to buy some WSOP ME action since I won't be able to play myself. Willing to pay big premium, pls send DM\/WhatsApp.<\/p>\n

— John Juanda (@LuckBoxJuanda) July 5, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n