Tag Archives: Portland Players Club

Run Silent, Run Deep

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Big tournaments in Portland poker over the next couple of weeks, with both Aces Players Club and The Final Table celebrating anniversaries, and a general gearing-up of the community for the upcoming summer series.

Portland Players Club WSOP Seat $5,000 Guarantee (8,000 chips)

I got off to a very hot start Friday night, sitting down a couple of hands in, picking up [ax ax] on my second hand, then going up against a player who sat at seat 2 a couple minutes after me. I’d picked up a premium [qx qx] and raised with nothing higher than a nine on the flop and we both put more money in. Another queen hit on the turn and he shoved, getting a call from me. A seven on the river made a set for his [7x 7x] but my set of queens held—with a river queen putting me on the high hand board—and he re-bought after his first hand. Funny story about that.

Fifty minutes into the game, and I was up to 22,400, more than three times the starting stack. Then I lost 1,900 in a couple calls with [9h th] and [kx qx]. I knocked out one of the PPC regulars with a [3x 7x] in SB when I caught a little of the [3x 2x 6x] flop. G thought he was safe with his [4x 4x], and he was through the [2x] on the turn, but the river [7x] sealed his fate and he re-bought. Ninety minutes in and I was at 25,750.

I made it as high as 29,400 before the first break, but I called an all-in on a flop of [ad 4d] with [2d 5d] against [4x 4x] and failed to catch another diamond, so I only had 21,900 before the T8,000 add-on.

I kept up my occasional calls with low suited gaps but lost 1,500 calling pre-flop as BB with [3s 6s] and another 600 as SB with [2h 6h].

About three hours in, I doubled up with a set of sixes against one of the larger stacks, putting me at 52,935, with the chip average at about 22,000.

[8x 8x] held up against an all-in from a very short stack holding [ax 9x], making up for losses to blinds and antes; I was at 52,000 even after the chip-up on the next break. There were 93 of 132 entries remaining after three-and-a-half hours, with 50 re-buys and 104 add-ons.

Half-an-hour later, with blinds up at 400/800/100, the number of players had dropped to 78. The average stack was 29,333: 36BB or (since we were 10-handed) an M-ratio of just 13, already in Dan Harrington’s “yellow zone” where small suited connectors and pairs lose value. I was sitting on 63,900 ten minutes after the top of the hour, when the average was 30,506.

I raised with the heart version of the Mutant Jack and took down the blinds and antes without a fight, then finally knocked out G with [qx jx] when I made two pair.

At the next break, four-and-a-half hours in, I had 86,600 (34,149 average) with 67 players left. Just 49 to go before the money.

I lost a big chunk of ground calling an all-in with [jh qh] against [kx jx]. The board nearly gave me both a flush and a straight, but the better hand held out. Five-and-a-quarter hours in to the game, I was at 66,500, with the average creeping up under me to 40,140.

Then I hit the high hand board again when [kx kx] made quads (with an ace kicker), knocking out another player and putting me up to 97,000.

[7d 9d] took in a lot of chips , hitting two pair on the flop and a full house on the turn. When the clock struck midnight after six hours of play, I had 142,300, not quite three times the 52,000 average, with 40 players left.

The spade Mutant Jack ([As Js]) failed me against [9x 9x], and I lost 30,000 chips about twenty minutes later, then I shoved over two raises with [tx tx] to take the pot and managed to pull myself back up to 124,500 (average 65,700) just before the middle of the seventh hour. Blinds were 2,000/4,000/500; there were 35 players left.

Just after the half-hour, I lost calling an all-in with [qx qx] against [9x 9x] when the nine showed on the flop, taking me down 26,600.

Just ten minutes later, nines almost did me in again when I had [ax qx]. She made a set on the turn but a [tx] on the river made me Broadway and I knocked out another player.

Playing [kd td] from SB, I lost 8,500 to see the flop. Everyone checked the turn but I couldn’t pay the 8,000 to see if there was a jack on the river and the board was too clubby for me.

The next break was at the end of seven hours of play, and I had 139,000. We were down to three tables (exactly 27 players), with the average stack at 84,740 and blinds going up to 3,000/6,000/500 (14BB, M-ratio of 6; mine was a paltry ten). With those kinds of numbers, the winnowing was taking place pretty fast. The money bubble was burst in just twenty minutes.

The Poker Mutant deep in thought, wondering how he can get back on an even keel.

I hadn’t found any opportunities to build up, however, and my stack had slipped to 110,500, with the chip average finally overtaking me to 127,111.

I blew 31,000 with [qd 8d] going up against [ax 8x] and ten minutes after making the money I was down to just 75,500. I shoved with [kx jx] and won the blinds and a call, then went all-in again with [ks qs] half-an-hour later, just before the blinds went up to 8,000/16,000/2.000.

There were 13 players left. My table had six players—so the blinds were coming around rather quickly—and there were a couple of very big stacks, including the guy I’d knocked out with quad queens back on his first hand. I had 87,500.

Half-an hour later, I was still alive as the final table was made. Three of the players were original players at my starting table. I was the second-shortest stack at the table. I shoved with roughly a quarter of my stack in the pot as BB on the first hand—I didn’t record what with—and was beat.

The first-place winner was the guy I took out with quad queens on his first hand.

Eight hours and forty-five minutes. +193% ROI. 9th of 132 entries.

Aces Players Club 2nd Anniversary $20,000 Guarantee Freezeout (20,000 chips)

This was the big-money game of the weekend. Running at full capacity and with people buying in after bustouts, there was no way the prize pool for this event wasn’t going to swell far beyond the guarantee (the PPC event prize pool was twice the guarantee itself). I bought the 8,000 chip preliminary add-on, so like most players, I was starting with 28,000 chips.

I laid low for the first fifteen minutes, picking up [7x 7x] as UTG1. I lost about 1,000 when a player with an ace made a pair on the turn and I bowed out.

[6s ts] gave me the inclination to raise, and I sort of liked the [qx 9x 8x] flop, but [ax] and [2x] on the turn and river left me cold and [qx tx] won the hand.

Lost some more with King Salmon ([Ks 7s]) when I paired my seven on the flop but the turn brought in a flush possibility for my opponent and I folded.

Called 800 from SB with [kx jx] but folded to a raise to 5,000.

Forty minutes in and I hadn’t won anything and was down to 23,475.

On the last hand before the first break, I called a pre-flop raise to 1,200 with [qh 9h] and caught an open-ended straight flush on the flop of [th jh 5x]. I brazenly shoved after a [5x] on the turn and everyone folded.

With the 8,000 extra add-on, I started the next session with 42,200, up a little over 6,000 from what I’d bought in for.

With [ax kx] in the SB and a [kx tx tx] flop, I folded with 7,500 in the pot to a 40,000+ all-in bet. Another player called and the winner was [ax tx] over [7x tx].

I stayed pretty quiet through the next half-hour; at the ninety minute mark I hadn’t won any more but I was still holding at 40,300. The final stats were in for the game: 153 entries, 148 players still in, 253 add-ons (both pre-game and at break), and a total pot of $43,250.

I knocked out a player playing with [3s 6s]. I hit bottom pair and a flush draw on the flop and called his all-in of 9,000. He showed [kx qx] for a higher pair but my flush card came on the turn.

Ten minutes later, I had [8x 8x] on BTN and raised, getting re-raised by BB. I called and we saw a flop of [qx 7x 2x]. I put him on [ax kx], which was a big mistake, and I shoved to give the impression I’d hit a set, but he had [kx kx] and I was out 41,200 chips, leaving me with just 13,500. This was the mistake that probably kept me out of the money in this tournament.

Fifteen minutes later, that had dwindled to 6,900. I went into cornered wolverine mode (again), shoving with [jd td] from CO and winning the blinds. 8,100 chips.

Payouts went up on the board. 22 places were getting money, with the top five prizes initially set at $12,555, $8,330, $4,995, $3,330, and $2,080. Things were getting serious.

I was all-in on two consecutive hands. FIrst with [ks qs]. I was called by [qx jx] and doubled up. Then I shoved [ax jx] over two calls and won with no showdown. People started complaining, but I’d managed to build back up to the starting stack, at least. Average stack was nearly 39,000 chips, though.

On the first hand after the next break, I had [kx kx] in BB and shoved over several calls to take the pot. 21,300 chips with 130 players left.

I picked up a couple of hands with 9Ts and KJo, then the blinds went to 1,000/2,000/200. With only 27,800 (120 players left), I had a critical M-ratio of less than 6. That’s the “red zone.”

All-in again as UTG1 with [ax qx]. At least I was picking up some decent shoving hands. 28,400 chips after going through the blinds.

Three hours into the game, the blinds jumped to 1,200/2,400/300. Another round of blinds and antes and I was down to 22,600 (M-ratio: 3.5). Just 101 players left.

Shoved again with [ax 9x] and took the blinds. The next time they passed through I was down to 23,000.

I finally picked up a significant number of chips in an all-in battle against a shorter stack with [ks js] against his [qx jx]. Three-and-a-half hours in, I had 46,500 (average stack: 60,523).

83 players left ten minutes later.

[8x 8x] failed me again, this time from SB when I called a 15,000 chip all-in against [kx 9x]. The nine hit on the flop. I’d picked up some other chips along the way, though, so I was actually sitting on 26,500.

Just short of four hours in, half the field was gone. Only 72 players remained, with blinds going up to 2,000/4,000/500.

I rode out the blinds again and was down to 36,500 (average 72,628), still securely in the red zone. At the four hour mark, I shoved over a call as UTG2 with [jx tx] and took the pot again. The pot was enough to put me up to 50,000 (65 left, average 78,215).

I shoved as BB over the SB call as my last act at my starting table before I was moved. I got there with 57,500 chips, only 69% of the average stack, and with blinds at 3,000/6,000/500; an M-ratio of 4.2.

My first act at my new seat was on BTN and I shoved with [jd 9d]. The 13,500 chips in the pot from blinds and antes was substantial in comparison with my stack.

Just a couple minutes later, I made an actual bet of 17,000 with [ax qx] and induced folds. I’d worked my way up to 65,500 (50 players left, average stack: 101,680).

The next break began just after I’d gone through the blinds. I had 55,500—barely more than half the average stack—and blinds were going to be starting up at 4,000/8,000/1,000, leaving me with an M-ratio of just 2.6. Again. 49 players left.

The big stack at our table was dominating from the other end. I went all-in over a raise from him with [kx qx] and I still had enough chips to get him to fold. That popped me up to 87,000 (average 105,916) briefly.

I raised to 20K with [as 9s] UTG. BB called. The flop was king-high, there were no spades, and I folded to an all-in.

Another round of blinds took me down to 51,000.

The big stack wasn’t liking my shoves any more than the other table had. I was all-in again against his raise and he folded, saying he had [kx qx]. I (probably mistakenly) flipped over my [kx qx].

43 players left as we approached the five-hour mark. I had 68,000 chips left and needed a double-up badly.

I was playing so tight I folded [qs ts] UTG.

My final hand was against the big stack. He finally called my all-in (this time with [kx jx]) and he had [6x 6x], which held up. I think he probably would have called even if I hadn’t showed on the previous hand.

The call with the eights against the kings was significant. I never made it back up to the chip average after that point, although I managed to stay in play for another three hours plus.

Five hours and fifteen minutes. 38th of 153 players.

Fooling Around In Omaha

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Portland Players Club Player of the Month High Hand Jackpot (7,000 chips)

I made four-of-a-kind with a hand in March at PPC, which got me an extra 1,000 bonus for this game. With the 3,000 pre-add-on, I was starting with 11,000 chips.

Picked up a free note-taking tool for my iPhone called MomentDiary which I came to like quite a lot during this tournament. The plan was to try it out at the Poker Pro Challenge but their ban on electronic devices kept me from using it. The great thing about it for poker notation is that it timestamps each entry. Haven’t found a way to batch delete a bunch of notes yet, though; I made more than 75 notes in tournaments on April Fool’s Day.

Won the first hand with [jx 8x], hitting a straight on the flop. One of the other players said it was the “poison pot” and maybe it was (as you’ll see).

Almost immediately after that, I picked up [kx kx] but was smart enough to lay it down early on a board that was turning into a straight that left me just out of the mix. The winner made quad tens by the river, although it didn’t actually go to showdown.

I more than made up for that fold playing [4s 5s] and hitting a 7-high straight on the flop. I called and pushed on seat 9 and took several thousand chips from him at showdown when all he had was [ax ax].

My next hand was [4x 4x] on BTN and I would have bet it but CO discarding accidentally flipped a four over and I just folded instead of hoping the case card would show on the flop to make me a set. That saved me a couple hundred at least; the board was far too high to make a pair of fours happy.

Fifteen minutes into the game, I was up about 4,000 chips. I raised to 225 with [6d 3d], then called a 600 re-raise. After getting an inside straight draw on the flop I bet another 1,000 but had to fold to an all-in bet down the line.

Another [4x 4x], this time on BB. SB raised to 700 pre-flop and I saw it with two other callers. The flop was [7x 7x 3x] and I bet 1,000 after SB checked. People were guessing my hand and nobody was even close. When one guy guessed that I had a pair of eights, I said that I “had eight.”

Twenty minutes had passed since my last chip count and I was still at 15,125.

I raised to 300 with [jx tx] and made my straight on the river to pick up some more chips to put me at 16,775.

Lost a little ground with [qx tx] after raising to 425 and seeing the board run out [5x 5c 7x 5x 9x]. Had to fold to a bet.

The Butcher [qs ts] messed me over for another 800 when I couldn’t get a king on the board to make Broadway.

Holding [jd td], I re-raised from 1,200 to 2,500 after a [9h jh qh] flop but had to fold to an all-in. The winner showed [ax ah] and the original raiser had non heart [kx kx]. At only about 19% chance to win, my fold was the right thing to do (I was well ahead of the kings) but I sure would have liked to see the rest of the board.

I was knocked back to 12,350, but managed to make a bunch on the last hand before the break with [jx tx] and another flopped straight (queen-high). By the time the counting was over, I was up to 17,350.

Starting back up after the break, I saw the flop as BB with [7x 3x] and had an inside straight  draw again. I bet 700 and everyone folded.

I folded myself after calling 300 with [ah 7h] and seeing an all-spade flop.

About twenty minutes into the second segment of the tournament I was holding 21,800, including the 5,000 add-on from the break.

I put out another 1,100 on [ax 8x] then folded along with several others after a short stack shoved for another 6,000. He showed [6h th] after he raked in his chips.

Another [jx tx] on BTN and I called a raise to 900 along with BB. I had top two pair on a flop with two diamonds. He bet 1,500 and I shoved to take the pot down.

Raised to 800 with [jx tx] just a couple minutes later as HJ and had to fold to all-in from CO, then called 1,400 with [kx tx] and hit top two pair on the flop. I bet 2,500 and got my opponent to fold. He showed [ax qx].

My stack was up to 22,650. I was heavily invested in jack-ten combinations in this game and made two pair on the turn just a couple minutes later on a board with a potential Broadway straight on it. Pushing all-in on a 6,000 post-turn bet cost me over 16,000 when the other guy had the straight and I failed to hit a full house on the river. Down to 6,425.

Ten minutes later I pushed all-in with [jx tx] again after pairing the top card on the flop, ran into [ax ax] and didn’t improve.

Two hours and fifteen minutes. -100% ROI. 28th of 41 entries.

Portland Players Club Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo (10,000 chips)

I don’t get to play nearly enough Omaha tournaments, and I’m a real sucker for the split-pot game. It’s definitely my preferred game over high-only. I’ve had some success with it in live limit cash games and had made the final table in a couple tournaments, but never managed to cash before this game. All I can say is it’s hard to take notes on.

Got a 1,000 chip bonus for this game for whatever reason, so I was starting with 11,000 on the table.

About ten minutes in, I played [ax jx 8x 5x] and made a Broadway straight on the turn with a heart flush draw on the board. A third heart came on the river, there was no low, and I ended up splitting the high with another player holding Broadway. No gain and a little loss from blinds; I was at 10,925 at fifteen minutes.

My [5x 6x 7x 8x] wrap completed an eight-high straight in a huge pot with two larger stacks all in over me. I took the high by myself, the main and side pot lows got quartered, and there was five minutes of bickering over what amounted to a 300 chip second side pot. At the half-hour mark, I was holding 22,350.

I called a raise to 1,100 pre-flop with [qh 7h 5c ac], paired the five on the flop and called a bet of 1,025, then folded in the face of another 4-way all-in. Quad eights took the whole shebang.

I lost a big hand I didn’t manage to record, and was cut in half to 11,575 near the end of the first hour of play.

Then came the hand that changed everything. [ah kh 2d 5s] looked pretty good on the [tc 7h 3h] flop and by the time [4h] and [9h] were also on the board, I had the nut flush for the high hand and a part of the low. With several players all-in (as usual) my stack jumped up to 50,325.

Even with the big stack, I added on for another 5,000 chips, one of the best decisions I made in this game, as you’ll see.

Just after the break, a [qx 6x] in my hand made me 5,000 when I improved a full house on a [qx qx 2x 2x 6x] board. I lost a little ground on a straight draw, but was still at 58,100 one hundred minutes in.

The two largest stacks in the tournament were me and another player at my table, and we got into it with both tables five-handed. He pushed hard with a straight and full house draw but I hit quad nines and knocked him out, putting my stack up to 108,400 and more than a third of the chips in play.

Knocked out another player with [ax 2x 4x 5x] by making two pair for the high and scooping the low, then took a hand from PPC regular T with [5x 5x ax kx], putting me up to 118,400.

By break 2, I’d hit 140,000.

A big pot with [2x 2x jx qx] made a set to grab the high and put me up to 160,500 as we approached three-hours of play. Then things got grim.

In less than ten minutes, I missed two draws for a Broadway straight and a flush that cost me a total of 22,500. Then I made a set of queens on a flop and called an all-in from B, who had [kx qx] and two pair. Another [kx] on the turn made full houses for both of us but I was on the losing side of that one and was back down to  98,500 as we actually hit three hours.

Ten minutes later I was still bleeding chips and down to 74,500. I managed to take one hand and bet people off my flush, then lost with two pair against a full house and didn’t hit my low. I hit the same straight as a another player and chopped a pot that would have been nice to take in toto, then flopped another straight and was all-in but was outdrawn by a flush that took all but 6,000 of my chips. It was just twenty-five minutes since I’d had 58% of the chips in play and I was down to one big blind. If I had skipped buying the add-on at the first break, I’d probably have busted out already—at best I would have only had 1,000 chips.

The next ten minutes were a blur. I caught some amazing cards, including a couple of high pairs and and managed to double up at least three times. In eight minutes, I was back up to 84,000 chips, then I knocked out B short of the money and hit the last break with 102,000.

Not long after the break was over, we managed to get it down to heads-up. I was back on top with about a 40,000 chip advantage but we chopped the top two positions evenly and called the game at four hours.

Four hours. +272% ROI. Chopped 2 ways with 15 entries.

N Took My Chips

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No, the Poker Mutant hasn’t gone into hibernation, although with a trip to the doctor and the snow and the vagaries of the work schedule, I haven’t had as much time to devote to updating the blog as I’d promised myself I would. There’s a half-finished article in my bag on the mathematics behind teams of players entering tournaments that I need to get done.

The day before my last post, I beat the rest of the field in my home league game, picking up some valuable points toward the Player of the Year prize of a WSOP buy-in. More importantly, since I’m still in second place and the season is drawing to an end, I knocked out KB—the current POY leader—before any of the other players, maximizing the value of the points I earned.

Ten dry days went by before I made another hit, this time in the morning free roll at Portland Players Club. There were six of us at the final table, and one player had about a third of the chips in play when a deal was made to give her a big chunk of the prize pool and split the rest. Not a lot of money but some profit.

I hadn’t played the Aces Players Club $5,000 guarantees on Fridays or Saturdays at noon before, but the results-oriented opinion is that I like them a lot. I was doing reasonably well by break two. The structure allows two re-buys, which can be purchased at any time in the first levels and stacked on top of each other, so it’s possible to enter the game with 30,000 in chips, akin to a Triple Barrel PLO game but where you have to pay for extra stacks. I just bought in once, but I was up to 38,100 at the second break, with the chip average several thousand lower than that.

I caught an incredible break about 45 minutes into the fourth hour after raising with [ks qs] from middle position when a player in BB pushed all-in. I called and was heads-up  against [ax ax] and practical elimination, but another ace on the turn made Broadway for me and I don’t think I’ve ever seen as disgusted a look on a player’s face. It pushed my up to 89,500 chips (total chips in play after the add-on was 1.78 million).

I started knocking out players with things like [as 8s] pairing the eight as the high card on an all-diamond flop. At the end of four hours there were only 30 of the original 70 or so entries and I was over 100,000 chips. Twelve places we’re scheduled to be paid.

A huge knockout half an hour in pushed me over 200,000 chips, and another at the five-hour mark meant 260,000. By break three we were only four from the money (two, once a decision to pay two bubbles was agreed on).

I lost a 60k chunk calling an all-in with [as ts] on a [6x 8x 4x] flop when [ax 8x] made it, but then knocked out two players at once with [tx tx] (which had been working well for me all game). I called two all-ins, they had [kx qx] and [kx jx] and none of the cards on the board were above a jack. I was sitting on a stack of 430,000 chips, about 23% of the chips in the game with 10 players left.

The final table bubble took a while to play out. After we consolidated, I lost a couple of calls for all-ins but made my way back both times until we were down to five players. After doubling another player up for over 100,000, I still had the chip lead, but agreed to an even chop so I could get to the $10K at Encore. I think the stack below is about 600,000 chips. The full stacks are ten-high, the yellow are 25,000, the gray are 10,000, the red are 5,000 and the pink are 1,000.

Over at Encore, I got into the game shortly before the end of the second level (I hate coming in late). I’d forgotten that the levels are longer and that I could have bought in for another hour, or I might have played out the Aces game to the end. Something to consider but I still hate coming in late.

I got off to a good start right off the bat, pushing up over 16,000 in short order, then got cut down by N (who told me the other day he thought he played like a pro—although I thought at first he said “fool”—then again he spent part of another game one day trying to convince people I was Howard Lederer’s cousin) who rivered a flush against my paired [ax kx]. With  4,900 left, I managed to chip up a little bit until I hit two pair playing [8c 6c] and N hit a straight with [7d 9d] on the river. No re-buys!

Size Does Matter

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Hearkening back to the discussion of median return on investment (mROI) from a couple months back, what tournaments should you be playing to maintain profitability?

The big determining factor is your in-the-money percentage (ITM). If you’re some sort of poker god and cash in half the tournaments you enter, you should be profitable, assuming your mROI is above 200% (i.e. you aren’t always min-cashing). When you’re in the more mortal realm of 12% to 18% ITM, however, the math gets a bit murkier.

Let’s assume you have a solid but not outrageous ITM value of 14%. You’re cashing in about one out of every seven games, not just small games but across the board including games with more than 100 players. If you’re playing in casinos where tips are taken out of the total prize pool, your mROI needs to be +600% or better in order to be profitable. If you’re playing in something like Portland’s social gaming clubs where the winning players need to tip the dealers in order to keep the scene going, your mROI needs to be +440% or better to stay ahead. As an example of the latter, if you enter a tournament with a $25 buy-in, a $10 add-on, and a $10 door fee, your payout needs to be about $350; pay $35 as a tip and subtract $45 for other costs, and the remaining $270 buys you the six tournament entries you don’t cash in. Although the overall mROI for social clubs is lower, the tip means that the prize has to be a higher multiple of the other costs (buy-in, add-on, door) for a positive average return (+677% in the example above).

A $350 payout for a $25 entry tournament is a fairly decent-sized prize, though. Depending on the prize structure, that’s more or less the top prize of a $1,000 guarantee tournament with 25 or 26 players. The median payout in a tournament that size would be less than $300; unless you got the top spot, you’d be dragging down your mROI.

This is why the Poker Mutant is focusing on larger fields, these days. Aside from a preference for the blinds structures of deep stack games, larger fields are simply the only way to maintain profitability. A tournament like the Encore Club’s $25K Guarantee earlier this month paid 12 places with a scheduled median ROI of +490% (the 9-way chop actually made the median ROI +1150%). But that required a field of 150 players.

Small-field tournaments in Portland—i.e. those with 20-30 players—pay about 45-50% for the top prize, with three or four places total paying (before any bubble agreements), and with the median payout in the range of 20-30% of the pot. The pot to basic cost ratio varies considerably depending on the tournament structure and club. An 11am $250 guarantee freeroll tournament at Portland Players Club ($5 door, $5 pre-add-on, $10 add-on) with close to 30 players can generate a pot to cost ratio of nearly 25:1 with a third of the players re-buying (I don’t include re-buys in basic costs because as I’ve explained, rebuys are the death of ROI). That means the median payout in those tournaments is approximately 625% of your basic cost. If you tip your dealer 10% of your 625% prize ($125), your ROI for the game is +285%, which sounds great, but only if your ITM is better than 26%. Of course, if you win the top prize in that tournament you’re doing better, but then if you cash in third you’d better be cashing in almost every game you play.

Games that induce a lot of re-buys, like the afternoon Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo tournaments at The Final Table ($10 door, $20 buy-in, $10 add-on), can change the math a little. It’s not uncommon for there to be nearly as many re-buys as original entries, which can juice the pot a bit. One game late last year had 28 entries, 21 re-buys, and 22 add-ons, for a $1,200 pot (30:1). That’s still not a great number, though, with the median payout at just under 16% ($190), for a potential ROI of only +222%; more money but not as high a return as the median payout in the PPC game. Again, the top end does better—+450%—but that’s just keeping your head above water for someone with an ITM of 14% (and it means you need to take first place every time you cash).

Is there a sweet spot? Is there a magic number that makes it more likely that your tournament cashes will be profitable cashes? So much of that decision rests on variables like re-buy and payout structures, but in Poker Mutant’s humble opinion—in the world of Portland poker rooms, at least—you’re more likely to be profitable in events with 75 or more entrants. Apart from the opportunity of winning a big stake if you take down the top prize, which can have a pot to cost ratio of 20:1 or 30:1, the average cash in a field of that size is large enough to maintain profitability for most above-average players. You’ll still find Poker Mutant at the tables for smaller games, but our focus is on those bigger tournaments for the time being.

Anyone heading down to Reno for the World Poker Challenge?

Hit the Road, Jacks

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Portland Players Club $250 Freeroll

I’d barely sat down at table 2 when I was moved (before the first hand) to table 3 in the small blind. I was sitting between a dead stack in seat 2 and a woman on my left I hadn’t played against before.

On the button I raised with [2x 3x] to 150 and made bottom pair on the flop. I stayed with it until the river when I got a [3x], then took a few hundred more off my neighbor who’d hit top pair.

Just a couple hands later, I had a [kx 9x] and raised to 200. The flop was [kx 4x 4x] and I pushed for another 700, ending up heads-up with the same player. [kx] on the turn and I was golden unless she had pocket fours. I bet 1,200 and she called. When the [6x] came on the river, I figured she must have the other king, and it was a chop, so I didn’t bet it (a decision I would come to regret). I flipped over my full house and said I thought it would be a chop; she flipped over [8x 8x] and said she figured I had nothing.

I won a number of other pots simply by betting out, but made a big mistake with [6x 6x]. I pushed after an unassuming flop, thinking the player at the other end (one of the Encore dealers) was on an ace. He flipped [jx jx] and made a set on the flop, reducing my stack by over 3,000 chips.

A dry spell hit me as the break approached and I was down to just 600 chips when I called a raise to 700 with [8s 5s]. Another player called the raise and three of us saw the flop with a split pot. The cards were [jx 5x 4x]. The last caller made a bet that pushed the original raiser out of the hand and it was heads-up for the main pot. He had [qs js], but I got lucky with another five on the river for a set and tripled up.

After the break, I pulled in a few more small pots, then picked up [tx tx] in the SB. Only one player came into the hand with a raise, then I re-raised to 2,200, only to have BB raise me all-in. The original raiser dropped out and I had to call, only to be up against [jx jx] again. The flop put out another one, and by the turn I was drawing dead.

One hour and thirty-five minutes. -100% ROI. 22nd of 32 players.

Take the Hint

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Portland Players Club $250 Guarantee

My first hand was a decent [kd jd] and I bet it strong pre-flop, only to have the cards show up midd-of-the-road and black. I kept betting and one other player followed along, but I gave up after the turn put a spade draw on the board and there was nothing for my diamonds to stick to.

The next flop, on the other hand, came out [kx jx jx], which would have been great with my first hand but was considerably less so with my [kx 6x]. I stayed through to the turn [3x] when the betting got very heavy, only to watch [kx] drop on the river to give me the nuts if I’d stayed in. The winner had [3x 3x] in her hand and had made her smaller house on the turn; the loser had [qx tx] and missed a straight that would have lost anyway.

Still, [tx tx] looked pretty good for my third hand, and I bet it, going heads-up and all-in after the [ax tx jx] flop. My opponent showed [ax jx] for top two, then we both made full houses on the river with another [ax]. Lucky me. I re-bought as I was moved to another table, despite comments that perhaps I should listen to the poker gods and call it off for the day.

I really should have. I struggled for a while, then chipped up after the break a bit, then lost a big chunk to DL and was down to just 1,500 with blinds at 200/400. I managed to build back up to several thousand before the table broke, and grab a couple of sets of blinds (shoving with [7d 9d], for instance) once I got there. Kicked myself on one hand when I was on the verge of shoving with [2d 4d]. I didn’t, I know I would have gotten called by the much bigger stacks that chose to get involved, and I would have hit a winning flush on the river. ATC. Instead, I went all-in with [ax qx] a few hands later and was called by [ax kx] in the big blind. Got a king and a couple of tens on the board, but no jack.

Two hours. -100% ROI. 18th of 32 players.

What Has It Got In Its Pocketses?

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Portland Players Club $250 Freeroll

I’ve been through a recent drought of pocket pairs, but the skies broke yesterday and rained them down on me to both good and bad effect. I started the day off at PPC and was sat at table 2, seat 4, a couple places to the right of DL. I struggled for a bit, then busted and re-bought, while DL began to amass a goodly stack of chips, over 20,000 by the first break. Seat 2 had a player I’d been up against once before who seemed to have been having some recent success at PPC; seat 9 was a tight player who kept exclaiming over the hands he’d laid down when he saw what people were raising (and winning) with.

The re-buy and add-on gave me a little breathing room, and then the cards started coming. I took a couple big chunks out of DL‘s stack, almost knocked out seat 2, and was stealing a lot of chips off the table. DL then lost the last of his pink 1,000 chips to me in a pot that had over 30,000 chips in it.

A PPC regular who can’t seem to hold his legs still—except for when he’s heads-up waiting for the cards to drop—was moved in-between DL and myself and started pushing all-in on my raises. We eventually got to a hand where I had [9s 7s] and hit my flush on the turn. The board paired on the river making a couple of likely full houses, though, and I raised big. He folded his [js 8s] face up and said he couldn’t call. I flipped over my lower flush and he seemed to tilt a bit. I picked off his chips shortly thereafter.

One hundred minutes in, I was sitting pretty on over 50,000 chips, more than a fifth of the chips in play, with about 14 players left. Seat 8 went all-in after a raise from my [ax ax], naturally I called, he flipped over [kx kx] and then hit a king on the flop. A much bigger axe hit my stack because of a stupid call on my part with [kc jc]. The tight player in seat 9 shoved with 15,000 chips and I called. He showed aces. A club on the river would have made me a flush and probably unleashed a torrent of invective, but it was a bad risk on my part and I could have held onto the chip lead if I’d given it some more thought.

It was downhill after that, with my stack back in the average territory. Don’t even remember the hand I went out on.

Three hours. -100% ROI. 10th of 29 players.

2011/12 Puffmammy Poker Tour Event #16

This game got off to a very wacky start, not just for me. WA was dealing the first hand to me UTG and it was [ax ax]. Naturally, I raised. A couple folks came along, including DV. I eventually walked DV alone down to the river for close to half his stack. An ace hit the board, he had two pair, but my set crushed him.

On WA‘s next deal, he gave me aces again. Again, I got some significant chippage out of it. Not, however, anything close to the kind of windfall KB made. He felted both DV and WA in record time, and proceeded to begin the building of a chip wall.

Meanwhile, I picked up queens, I picked up nines, then queens again. KB busted three of the four players who re-bought; I busted the other. Then he took out four permanently while I took out two. I made one incredibly lucky boneheaded move with [tc 8c] and shoved all-in when I thought there were two clubs on the board. When I was called and we flipped for the showdown, people were scratching their heads since I didn’t have a pair and one of the “clubs” was a spade. Fortunately, I got running clubs on the turn and river to make the flush.

For most of the match, it looked like KB had an insurmountable chip lead. But even though he’d performed most of the knockouts, I’d been doing a lot of damage to players that set them up for those knockouts. When we got to heads-up play three hours into the game, it wasn’t as lop-sided as it might have looked half an hour earlier. With 25,000 chips in play and blinds still at 150/300/25, it looked like we might be in for a long night of it.

As always, luck and stupid mistakes are everything in poker. Early on, I picked up another pair of queens and was prepared to raise the heck out of the pot post-flop if it didn’t have anything scary. It was far from scary, it was: [qx qx 7x]. Then KB decided to push me around and went all-in. I called and flipped my quads over. It wasn’t enough to knock him out, but he was hurting. I played it very cautious, dropping a lot of chips back into his hands against his all-ins. One call I did make with [kx tx], he showed [qx jx]. I made two pair but a nine on the river made his straight. Eventually, though, another queen took him down.

Three hours and fifteen minutes. +343% ROI. First of 8 players.

Aces Players Club Shootout

I went by Aces intending to play the 10pm game but half-an-hour past starting time I was the first person to show up for it. That isn’t the Aces I remember. There was a final table finishing up for what must have been the six o’clock game. No tables for the eight (unless that was the eight’s final), and a single shootout table. Against my better judgment, I got into the shootout. Had a [js 2s] early on and raised with it, got a couple calls, had a gut-shot straight draw and folded to a big raise from he other end of the table. Then the straight came through and the guy who’d raised took it in with another jack. My last hand, I had [7x 7x] and the flop was [qx 6x 5x] I raised big, got re-raised, and went all-in. He showed [jx jx] and I was out.

Twenty minutes. -50bb.

Hogging the Ground

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Portland Players Club $250 Freeroll

Even though I was starting to feel the effects of a cold, I felt like I needed to pop up out of the hole for a game before this weekend’s big $25K tournament, so I headed over for the morning action at PPC.

Early on, I picked up [js 7s] in late middle position. A bunch of players had limped in for what I believe was still just 50, and I popped it up to 225, getting a couple callers but dropping most of the field. The flop was a tantalizing [jh 7h 4x] and I bet into it, followed by the player on my immediate left. Another heart on the turn slowed both of us down, but I made a large bet on the river and got a call, thinking I was probably beat, but he showed [ax ax] and my two pair was good. The guy in seat nine—who’d been in the hand through the flop—was indignant, decrying my pre-flop raise with “junk.” I tried not to laugh, out of respect for the guy who’d just lost 1,500+ chips next to me and tried to point out the straight possibilities, the flush, etc., but he seemed to be more upset than the guy who’d had his aces cracked. I got moved to an expansion table not long after that. UPDATE: Suited jack-seven wins or ties 14.8% of the time in a 9-handed showdown; it’s the 51st-best hand with nine players. The 50th-best hand is a pair of sevens; it wins or ties 15.1%. Your chances of winning in a nine-handed showdown with suited jack-seven are better than with any pair of sixes or lower. Of course I’m going to raise with it. I’d raise with a pair of sevens.

I did pretty well at the new table, knocking out one tight player with a full house over another full house. The I had just [8x tx], the board ran out [8x 3x 2x], then put another [3x] on the turn. The tight player had [2x 2x] in his hand and hit his house on there, but he didn’t go all in until the [8x] on the river and I think he missed the possibility he was counterfeited by any eight or trey.

I got cut down a bit in a race before we were moved back to my original table, where I was seated on the left of the player whose aces I’d cracked earlier, with DL on his right and the tight player on DL’s right. My last hand was [kx jx]. I tried to make a move, the tight player pushed, and if I’d given it some more thought I would have folded, knowing the hands he’d been playing, but I hoped I might have a couple over cards. No luck: [as ks]. I was a card away from a straight by the river but I was still away.

Two hours and fifteen minutes. -100% ROI. 13th of 28 players.

My Other Home

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Portland Players Club Deepstack

A couple of late cancellations for the home league left three of us itching for some poker, so we headed over to PPC for the Deepstack tournament I never get to play. DV, KB, and I got seated one at each of the three tables.

I continued the tight(ish) play I’d determined to hold to on the weekend. The cards weren’t particularly helpful. The first hand I played was [jx tx]; I raised to 150 UTG and got a couple of callers. [qx 9x] on the flop gave me an up-and-down straight draw, but two clubs on the board made the flush possible. BB bet 350 and I was the only caller. An [ad] on the turn made two straight draws possible, one of which might have come through with the river [3d]. BB bet out 1,200 and I had nothing, so I laid it down. Even though I had a relatively quiet first level, I was down by nearly 1,000 at the end.

On BTN with [jx 9x] , I called with two limpers ahead of me and the blinds in the hand. The flop was a rainbow [jx 5x 6x] and SB bet 150. There were three calls and I used my position to pop it to 600. Everyone folded.

On SB at 50/100 with [kx qx] for the second hand in a row (the first flop hadn’t contained a card higher than [5x]), I raised to 300 and got three calls. The flop gave me top two and everyone checked to me. I bet 1,200 and took it without argument.

J, at the end of the table had amassed the beginnings of a truly massive stack and was playing lots of hands. I picked up [5x 5x] and we were heads-up for 150 chips each. The board got progressively worse for me, not quite giving me a straight but with four over cards; J ratcheted the bet up by 50 each street, so at showdown when he declared my [tx] was good, even he was surprised when his [4x 6x] won with the paired [6x] on the board. With my other pots, I was up a few hundred by the end of the second level.

I didn’t play any significant hands during the third level, but my stack dropped 700 chips from blinds and min-calls.

Decided to play [kx tx] UTG and min-raised at 150/300. The flop gave me a Broadway draw but the board was pregnant with flush possibilities. I called the final 400 knowing my king-high was beat by aces.

Managed to semi-bluff three players off a [jx 8x 7x] flop from the BB holding [qx 9x]. Then a couple of hands later I was dealt [ac kc] as BTN and raised, getting 2 callers. The flop was [ax 7x 2x] and I bet to win the pot.

Called off 1,200 pre-flop with [js ts]. The flop was low and diamondy; I tossed my hand at the first sign of a bet. By the end of level 4, though, I was back up over the starting stack, finally.

Entered the fray with [jd 8d] at 200/400 and by the turn I had a flush with the potential for a straight flush. I called an all-in from a player whose stack was just about my size and the flush held against his two pair.

Raised 1,400 from CO with [ax kx] but missed the flop and folded to a bet. With the near-double-up, I was up to 16,475 chip at the end of level 5, but there were a couple monster stacks at the table.

I automatically folded [8x 3x] from SB. Two players went hammer-and-tongs pre-flop, I would have made two pair on the flop, and I could have taken the entire pot with a full house on the turn. A pair of nines won. But who’s going to call off 15% of their stack pre-flop with 83o?

We were at 400/800. I had [ax 8x] in BB and I had a single caller. The flop fell around the eight for an up-and-down straight draw. I let him bet 1,000 and called. We both checked the turn, then the river put down an [ax]. I bet 1,000 and took the pot.

Got into a bidding war that cost me over 7,000 chips with my [tc 6c] flush against a [9x 5x] full house. That knocked me down to 10,600 by the second break.

Played [kh 6h] from UTG1 and was heads-up against BB. The flop was [kx 9x tx], he checked, I bet 1,000. We both checked the [tx] on the flop. The [kx] on the river gave me the nuts and I raised to 3,000 after he bet 1,000, inducing a fold.

Raised to 1,800 with [ax 9x] from CO. BTN re-raised to 3,000 and I called. The flop was nine-high and I shoved. BTN called and flipped [ax qx]. The turn was [qx] and I lost another 7,100.

I was down to just 2,500 chips on the last hand before blinds went to 500/1000. I was UTG and looked down at [4x 4x]. I announced my all-in with a not-very-scary stack and waited for the end. Two callers flicked specks of chips off their giant stacks, then the other two fours hit on the flop. and I more than tripled up.

[jx tx] cost me another 1,000 off that stack from BB when I called a min-raise.

Shoved with [ax qx] and missed everything. I outlasted DV and KB by an hour or so.

Three hours and ten minutes. -100% ROI. 15th of 24 players.

Portland Players Club $200 Guarantee

I was knocked out of the Deepstack just before the first break in the nightly freeroll so I popped over to one of the two tables running there. My first hand was [tc 9c] and I made a queen-high straight, knocking out one of the players and putting me up to 9,800 (from 4,000 starting stack with the pre-add-on) as we headed into the break.

I called two all-ins—the largest of which was 4,000 chips—with [jd 9d]. I was in bad shape; the larger of the two stacks had [js ts] and the smaller stack had one of each of our low cards with the hand that had just made me a lot of chips: [9c tc]. A jack on the flop and two clubs put me behind both of them, with only a 7% chance of a win (I actually had a better chance to chop). The small stack went away; the winning player was out in the next hand.

One of the regulars I’ve gotten to know, DL, was sitting on my left. He called my [ax jd] all-in with [jx jx] and it looked like I was done but I drew to a diamond flush. He was on a self-imposed vow of silence at the table or I expect some choice words would have been heard.

Playing [9c 2c] on BB, I made the flush on the turn and won another hand. Then I lostg 8,000 chips with [qc 9c] going all-in after a queen-high flop that was called by a smaller stack holding [7x 7x] with a set made on the board.

Shoved again with [qh 9h] and DL called me once again. Once again, he got the short end of the stick, when my queen paired to beat his [kh jh]. He even had my suit.

I was out on the next hand with [5x 5x] from BTN. I shoved my remaining little stack (small even after the double-up) and BB called me with [8x 8x]. No suckout on that hand. DL was out the next hand himself; I gave him a ride home.

Forty minutes. -100% ROI. 11th of 25 players.

Loss Weekend(s)

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Looks like I’ve got some serious catching up to do. Here, first of all, but really at the tables.

The Final Table Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo

Another one of those PLO8 experiences where you get a wad of chips early on only to lose them, re-buy (resolution broken again), make it to the add-on break, then bust out half-way through the first round after the break.

Eighty-five minutes. -100% ROI. 26th of 28 entries.

Carbon Poker $200 Guarantee HORSE Freeroll

In the interests of getting this update done, not going to bother with a hand-by-hand for this brief game.

Thirteen minutes, 15 hands. 2,566th of 2,798 entries.

The Final Table $1,000 Guarantee

Didn’t rebuy. First player permanently out.

Sixty-five minutes. -100% ROI. 39th of 39 players.

The Final Table Big “O” 5-Card Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo

I hadn’t played Big “O” as a tournament before this, but I’d been intrigued by it and my early exit from the $1K Guarantee gave me the chance to give Final Table’s alternate Friday early afternoon game a try. I did reasonably well, I think, except for the part about not making any money.

Two-and-a-half hours. -100% ROI. 16th of 34 entries.

The Final Table $10,000 Guarantee

It’s the game I was waiting for. Didn’t make it as far as the second break.

Three hours. -100% ROI. 107th of 144 players.

Portland Players Club $200 Guarantee Freeroll

Wandered over to PPC after I got booted from the $10K. Came in a few minutes late but started to pick up chips and made it to the bubble. Dropped my median ROI by a bit.

 Two hours. +0% ROI. 5th of 24 entries.

Portland Players Club $250 Guarantee

It was the first anniversary of the new regime at PPC and CB had a bunch of prizes added to each of the day’s tournaments. The early game had a month’s pass added to first place; I only made it about half-way through the field.

Two hours and fifty minutes. -100% ROI. 21st of 44 entries.

Portland Players Club No Limit Hold’em

Slid over to the well-in-progress second tournament of the day. I did not last long.

Ten minutes. -100% ROI. 9th of 9 players.

2011/12 Puffmammy Poker Tour Event #14

Couldn’t play the later PPC events on their anniversary because of the home league game. Busted out twenty minutes into the tournament after I was out-kicked by WA. Re-bought (resolution doesn’t apply to the home game), then busted the next two players myself within an hour. Several reversals of fortune happened: I ended up in second place to JT, the first of the players I busted out. The two payouts went to two of the three players who re-bought. Median ROI dropping like a rock.

Three and a half hours. +62% ROI. 2nd of 7 players.

Oak Tree Casino 2-10 Spread Limit Hold’em

After the home game, I headed up to Woodland to see if I could get into some Omaha but there wasn’t anything going. Played spread limit for the first time.

Two hours. +8 big blinds.

Aces Players Club $1,500 Guarantee

I’d really like to play the noon game at Aces more often but it’s just gotten so large that I can’t make obligations in the early evening if I go deep. Not that I did here, but I don’t plan to go home early.

One hour and fifty minutes. -100% ROI. 30th of 44 players.

Encore Club $10,000 Guarantee

This was my first big game at Encore for the new year and I managed to hold on through round 12. I avoided a nasty encounter on the last hand before the second break that would have busted me; my hand was strong but wouldn’t have won. By the fifth hour, I was up to more than 125,000 chips; more than half-again the chip average at that point. Then in the middle of the hour I lost all but 16,000 of it in a hand I can’t recall at this time but likely one of those scenarios where I probably shoved incorrectly. I was out less than two minutes later.

Five hours and fifteen minutes. -100% ROI. 24th of 112 players.

D’s Dealer’s Choice

This is usually a money hole for me,  but surprisingly I came out on top for a change. A couple good hands of Omaha made my day.

Four hours. +50 big blinds.

Oak Tree Casino Limit Omaha 8

In my constant search for Omaha action, I drove up for one of the morning tournaments. I have to say, the lack of info screens, low number of chips, and the small size of the field doesn’t really make it worthwhile for me.

Two hours. -100% ROI. 10th of 28 players.

Portland Players Club $200 Freeroll

Nothing like a late-night game at PPC. I mean that quite literally. It can be sort of crazy when people who bust out can re-buy and immediately have more chips than your stack after you busted them.

Two hours. -100% ROI. 11th of 23 players.

Encore Club $1,000 Guarantee

Another game that ended for me half-way through the round after the add-on. Got my double-stamp for the day, though.

Eighty-five minutes. -100% ROI. 27th of 32 entries.

Encore Club $5,000 Guarantee

Didn’t even make it to the add-on in this game.

One hour. -100% ROI. 112th of 117 entries.

Oak Tree Casino 3-6 Hold’em

I had an hour after the $5K before another tournament started. I figured Oak Tree might have some Omaha running on a Friday night and I headed up there instead of waiting. Big mistake. I’d forgotten about their grand opening celebration, they were giving $500 away each hour in a drawing, and every table was packed. Every waiting list was packed—except for 15-30 HE, and even that had a waiting list—there was only one Omaha table, and I was about #15 on the list. As it was, I could have made it back to Encore before anything opened up. I went in on a table, made a little bit, lost a little bit, then players started drifting away after the last drawing of the night and it broke.

One hour. -10 big blinds.

Oak Tree Casino 2-10 Spread Hold’em

I took a seat at this table despite my best judgment.

One hour. -130 big blinds.

Encore Club $10,000 Guarantee

If you’ve made it down this far you know that it’s been a little while since I posted a win. More importantly, it’s been a while since I posted a substantial win. Surprisingly, my In The Money (ITM) percentage hasn’t faltered much; although there are a lot of games listed in this one post, they were played over a period of three weeks and represent a fairly small number compared to the total number of tournaments in my database. But I can’t live forever on past winnings. So I resolved to play this past week’s $10K at the Encore very tight at the beginning.

It didn’t help much. Before the first break, I was down to just over 20% of the starting stack. I did manage to chip back up to 7,500 by the break, then did the add-on, but it was rough, as the most premium hand I’d gotten was [tx tx]. Then, in round 6 on my big blind, I looked down at [qx qx] and decided to go for it. UTG raised, there were a couple of calls, and I shoved with about 10,000 chips. Everyone folded but UTG, he flipped [kx kx], they held, and I was out.

Three hours and forty minutes. -100% ROI. 58th of 80 players.

Encore Club $500 Guarantee

Hung around the club this time for the next game.  Don’t remember much about it. Maybe I’m going to start keeping notes again.

Two hours and ten minutes. -100% ROI. 16th of 27 players.

Encore Club Midnight Madness

Not a big field. Not much money. Not a very good showing. At least I didn’t re-buy.

Twenty-one minutes. -100% ROI. 6th of 7 players.

So, a couple weeks of garbage in there cleaned out. On the definite up side, though, a shout out to reader DS who came up to me between games at the Encore on Saturday and said hello after she’d spent a little time to figure out just who the Poker Mutant is (it’s not that difficult now that I’ve grown my beard back). When someone with more success than you have takes the time to say hello, you really can’t complain.

Speaking of which, this next week I get to host a visit from a WSOP bracelet winner and someone who was in the top dozen of the Bluff 2010 Player of the Year list (they’re the same person).